Three Horses Capable of a Southwest Stakes Upset
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J S Bach enters the Southwest Stakes off an impressive victory on Jan. 17 at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park)
Presidents’ Day not only brings us a three-day weekend to enjoy with friends and family, but it also brings us an important race for several 3-year-olds looking to take the next step on their path to the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
The Southwest Stakes is the feature race at Oaklawn Park on Monday, and a field of 12 horses was entered to compete at 1 1/16 miles for their share of a $300,000 purse.
Coming into the Southwest Stakes, the horses expected to attract the most gambling dollars at the betting windows are Far Right (#2) and Mr. Z (#10).
Far Right won his most recent race, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 19. Mr. Z finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes in a race in which Mr. Z ran very erratically in the final stages of the race, which cost him dearly.
Both Far Right and Mr. Z deserve credit for the solid résumés they already have built for themselves, and I will not be surprised if either one wins the Southwest Stakes.
However, I do believe there are a few logical alternatives to both Far Right and Mr. Z in this race, and I think it may be worth including them and trying to pull a slight upset in the Southwest Stakes:
#1 J S Bach: This colt has only raced twice in his career, making him the least experienced horse in the Southwest. However, while this colt may lack in experience, he certainly does not lack in talent, as evidenced by his dominant victory at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 17. This horse’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, and jockey, John Velazquez, do not get any better and, with added improvement off his first two career races, J S Bach could be your winner of the Southwest Stakes.
#3 Private Prospect: This colt began his career in phenomenal fashion. He finished first or second in his first four races. While a trip to California for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile did not turn out well, Private Prospect ran a solid “comeback race” — the first race for a horse after he has been on a break from racing for a period of time — when finishing fourth behind both Far Right and Mr. Z in the aforementioned Smarty Jones Stakes. Private Prospect should be more physically fit for the Southwest Stakes, and if he can get back to his winning ways of 2014, he could win this race at very nice odds.
#11 War Story: It was reported that trainer Tom Amoss planned to scratch War Story from this race and target instead the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 21 at Fair Grounds, but if War Story runs here he is a big threat. Just like J S Bach, this is another horse who is rather inexperienced, with only three career races, yet very talented. He has two victories and one runner-up finish in those three career starts. Most recently, War Story finished second in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, which was a very good race for him, and showed that he fits with the caliber of horse that he would face in the Southwest Stakes. War Story would be running in a race at Oaklawn Park for the first time in his career in the Southwest Stakes, but based off his recent morning workout at Oaklawn on Feb. 11, he should definitely like the racing surface and give a top effort on Monday.
Betting Strategy:
$3 exacta box: 1,3,11 ($18)
Alternate Strategy (if War Story is scratched):
$10 exacta box: 1,3 ($20)
$300,000 Southwest StakesOaklawn Park , Monday, Race 9, 6:09 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line
1
J S Bach
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
4-1
2
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
3-1
3
Private Prospect
Alex Birzer
Michael Campbell
15-1
4
Bayerd
Ramon Vazquez
Steve Asmussen
8-1
5
The Truth Or Else
Calvin Borel
Ken McPeek
20-1
6
Kantune
Shaun Bridgmohan
Mark E. Casse
15-1
7
Phenomenal Phoenix
Clifton Berry
Donnie Von Hemel
30-1
8
Majestico
Terry Thompson
D. Wayne Lukas
30-1
9
Bold Conquest
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steve Asmussen
12-1
10
Mr. Z
Corey Nakatani
D. Wayne Lukas
7-2
11
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
4-1
12
Bold Animaux
Israel Ocampo
Michael Biehler
30-1