Handicapping: Outsiders Preferred in Phipps, Louisville

The stakes schedule June 13 is highlighted by the $300,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), a one-turn route at Belmont Park that is a "Win and You're In" race for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) Nov. 7 at Keeneland.

Grass marathoners go in the only other graded event on the calendar, the $100,000 Louisville Stakes (G3T) at Churchill Downs.

Otherwise, handicappers who prefer sprint races will find stakes doubleheaders at Santa Anita Park (Thor's Echo Handicap & Angels Flight Stakes) and Woodbine (Woodstock Stakes and Star Shoot Stakes).

As usual, we have some opinions.

Ogden Phipps (Bel, race 9, 5:36 ET): The second and third finishers in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1), Ollie's Candy (5) and Point of Honor (2), will vie for favoritism. Ollie's Candy fought hard through fast fractions dueling in that race and was ultimately worn down by Ce Ce, and it may be relevant that the latter subsequently regressed when third at 3-5 odds in the Santa Maria Stakes (G2).

Moreover, Ollie's Candy hasn't been one turn since taking her first two career starts on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields two years ago.

The stretch-running Point of Honor, a likable, steady-going filly, has made seven of eight starts around two turns. The lone one-turn try for the daughter of Curlin  came at Tampa Bay Downs when second at 3-5 in her seasonal debut this year. As with Ollie's Candy, this will be her initial start over "Big Sandy."

This looks like a good spot for third choice Golden Award (6), a half-sister to 2012 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner I'll Have Another . She has been away since running a close second in the Royal Delta Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park in mid-winter, which is a plus since she has posted four prior wins off workouts including the Shuvee (G3) and Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3). The outside draw should enable her to track outside stablemate Blamed (4).

The one-turn situation is no issue for Pink Sands (1), but the deep closer got terrific setups taking the Rampart Stakes (G3) and Inside Information Stakes (G2) at the turn of the year, and Gulfstream has always been her favorite track.

A — 6

B — 2, 5

Louisville (CD, race 11, 6:22 ET): Tiz a Slam (6) enjoyed a leisurely lead wiring last year's Louisville over six opponents but faces 11 rivals in this deeper renewal, most notably Arklow (5), a multiple graded stakes winner of more than $1.8 million topped by the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1T) last fall.

In three starts over the local course, Arklow won the American Turf Presented By Ram Trucks (G2T) as a 3-year-old in 2017 and was fourth in the Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes (G1T) and Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) the following year. He needs pace help up front from longshots Lombo and/or Ry's the Guy.

Call me crazy for talking up Admission Office (12), who has come away empty-handed in nine prior stakes attempts, but he was totally out of his element chasing the razor-sharp speedster Halladay from close range in the 1 1/16-mile Sunshine Forever Stakes most recently. Admission Office has run well in both prior three-turn routes (notably a lifetime-best effort in the MacDiarmida Stakes (G2T) to even-money favorite Zulu Alpha), and a switch to Julien Leparoux suits his late-running style nicely.

At a price, He's No Lemon (4) could be worth a look at 15-1 on the morning line. The son of Lemon Drop Kid  showed improvement through the second half of his sophomore campaign, and trainer Graham Motion has been deadly with fresh horses from Fair Hill lately, having already taken the Tepin Stakes with Shared and the Old Forester Mint Julep (G3T) with 25-1 bomber Secret Message at the current meet.

A — 12

B — 5, 6

C — 4

Thor's Echo (SA, race 6, 6:34 ET): Carla Gaines sends out 6-5 favorite Desert Law (1) and co-second choice Tiger Dad (2).

Desert Law romped by better than six lengths in the 2019 edition of this dash and gave multiple graded stakes winner Cistron all he wanted a few weeks later when a close second in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1). That was nearly a year ago, however, and Desert Law has historically been at his best second time back.

Tiger Dad figures to hook up in a pace dispute with Principe Carlo (5) in this short field of five, which could lead to a favorable stalk-and-pounce scenario for Oliver (3).

I'm going to try and wake up Oliver, who was well beaten in his last two appearances. He is tabbed at 6-1 and rates the benefit of the doubt for his latest, which came on the turf just a week ago. Before that, he was five wide giving futile chase to Volatile, who returned to romp in the Aristides Stakes, just missing Churchill's six-furlong track record.

A — 3

B — 1, 2

Angels Flight (SA, race 8, 7:38 ET): Another five-horse sprint, and we're taking a shot against another favorite. This time we're against 9-5 chalk Been Studying Her (5), who has developed into a one-run closer since taking three of her first four starts.

The play is second choice Gingham (1), a Bob Baffert-trained filly who cuts back to a long sprint after putting in a middle move going long in the Gardenia Stakes at Oaklawn Park. She returns home to a surface where she has won or placed in all four outings including a second in the Las Virgenes Stakes (G2).

A — 1

B — 5