Handicapping: Opinions on Belmont, Supporting Stakes

And the last shall be first, as a Triple Crown that normally begins on the first Saturday in May with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) instead begins on the first Saturday of summer with the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1).

The "Test Of The Champion" has been shortened up from 12 furlongs to nine furlongs for this pandemically altered season and precedes the Derby (Sept. 5) and Preakness (G1, Oct. 3) in a series spread out across 15 weeks. 

What planet are we on?

But wait, there's more! The Belmont is now a points-qualifying race (150-60-30-15) for the Derby, and the Longines Acorn Stakes (G1) earlier on the six-stakes card at Belmont Park, is now a qualifier (50-20-10-5) for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) Sept. 4.

First post is 11:45 a.m. ET, and frankly, the first half of the stakes program is underwhelming. A five-horse renewal of the Woody Stephens Presented by Claiborne Farm (G1) for sophomore sprinters is race 2, while the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G2T) and Wonder Again Stakes (G3T) attracted a total of just 12 3-year-old turf runners.

The Wonder Again begins a must-play pick five that goes through the Acorn, Jaipur Stakes (G1T) and Belmont, a sequence that also includes a tricky little New York-bred allowance turf sprint with an overflow field. The four stakes in the pick five will be aired on NBC from 2:45-6:00 ET., so let's take a look at those.

Wonder Again (race 6, 3:01 ET): Three of the five fillies in this one-mile event have been idle since early November—Speaktomeofsummer (1), Sweet Melania (2) and Selflessly (5). 

Speaktomeofsummer won both grass starts last fall by open lengths including the Chelsey Flower Stakes and returns with blinkers on and first-time Lasix for Christophe Clement, who already had eight meet wins through June 18. 

Sweet Melania, potentially loose on the lead here, set the pace to deep stretch in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) and held third over Selflessly. The latter raced wide from post 13 and looms a threat to rebound based on a win in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2T) for Chad Brown a few weeks before that.

Highland Glory (3) and Antoinette (4) were beaten favorites in the Honey Ryder Stakes and Gardenia Stakes, respectively, in early May. Highland Glory suffered through a brutal trip in the Honey Ryder, while Antoinette may appreciate switching back to grass.

No sense getting eliminated right away.

A — 2, 5

B — 1, 3, 4

Acorn (race 8, 4:15 ET): Gamine (1) and Casual (4) are both perfect from two starts so far and will take the bulk of the action despite their lack of stakes experience, because, as the Runyonesque saying goes, "the race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

Be that as it may, the stakes-seasoned Lucrezia (2) has trained sharply at Fair Hill Training Center lately for Arnaud Delacour, and rates a chance for a mild upset after winning the Sandpiper Stakes and Suncoast Stakes at the turn of the year and following with a gutsy second in the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) to Swiss Skydiver, who subsequently took the Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

A — 1, 4

B — 2

Jaipur (race 9, 4:53 ET): Pure Sensation (4) makes his fourth appearance in this six-furlong turf dash that is a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) Nov. 7 at Keeneland. Pure Sensation wired the 2016 Jaipur over stablemate Disco Partner  (who took the next two runnings), and while he may get loose up front in this matchup, he is making his 9-year-old debut for Clement as the 5-2 favorite.

Clement's other entrant is White Flag (7), who rates a solid chance at 8-1 first out since spinning his wheels in the Runhappy Turf Sprint (G3T) over a Kentucky Downs course that was exceptionally kind to early speed at the time. He has won four of five sprints over the local turf.

Kanthaka (1) is pegged at 10-1 for his first start since a third in the 2019 Daytona Stakes (G3T) almost 13 months ago. That was the first and the only turf try for the dual graded stakes winner, and it's worth noting he has since been gelded and transferred to Graham Motion, who has been lighting it up with Fair Hill-based comebackers the past month or so with six winners off layoffs ranging from 168 to 287 days, five of them on the grass.

Oleksandra (2) finished fast behind Jolie Olimpica when the latter narrowly missed the 5 1/2-furlong course record in the Monrovia Stakes (G2T) last month at Santa Anita. The daughter of Animal Kingdom is perfect from two prior forays to Belmont and beat males in a high-end optional claimer over the course last June.

Stubbins (5) comes off a horror trip when third in this year's Daytona when beaten a half-length.

Trying to catch a price here with our A-team:

A — 1, 7

B — 2, 4, 5

Belmont (race 10, 5:42 ET): Without belaboring the obvious merits of Tiz the Law (8), this is his race to win or lose on paper. The Constitution  colt took the Champagne Stakes (G1) out of the chute on Big Sandy last fall and was a dominating winner of both the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Curlin Florida Derby (G1) earlier this year. His lone Achillies Heel so far has been a dislike for running inside of horses, so drawing toward the outside should enable a favorable trip tracking the likes of Tap It to Win (1), Modernist (4) and/or Fore Left (6) out in the clear.

Tap It to Win could bounce off a big-figure win over the track June 4, and the other "fast" horse is Sole Volante (2), another potential bounce candidate who wheels back in 10 days after a well-orchestrated win at Gulfstream Park in which stablemate Ete Indien set the table up front.

That was the first outing for Sole Volante since a second in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) three months earlier, and he could come rolling late if a hot pace develops and he can sidestep regression.

While Sole Volante is the likely second choice behind Tiz the Law, the other viable stretch threat is Farmington Road (5), who is 15-1 on the line as one of two Todd Pletcher-trained sons of Quality Road  in the field along with the lightly raced Dr Post. They appear to have trained in tandem recently at Palm Beach Downs and at Belmont.

Dr Post gained considerable seasoning winning the Unbridled first time against winners, but this seems like a big ask at this early stage of his career.

Farmington Road, though, has been running right along in stakes company this year beginning with a rallying fourth in a division of the Risen Star Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), followed by a close second in the Oaklawn Stakes and a fourth in a division of the Arkansas Derby (G1). Many will consider Farmington Road something of a plodder, but be aware he ran middle half-miles of 46.65 and 46.70 in his last two races. He gives the impression a single wide-sweeping turn may be just what the doctor ordered.

Max Player (3), away 20 weeks since winning the Withers Stakes (G3), and Modernist are used defensively in case everything goes right in the first four legs.

A — 5, 8

B — 1, 2

C — 3, 4