Handicapping: Fireworks in Belmont, Delaware Stakes

There are stakes fireworks galore on tap this Fourth of July Saturday.

Belmont Park cards five graded events topped by the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1), a "Win and You're In" for the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) at Keeneland Nov. 7. The Met Mile is flanked by the Poker Stakes (G3T), Manhattan Stakes (G1T) and Suburban Stakes (G2) in a high-quality pick four. The Met and Poker will be televised on NBC from 5-6 pm Eastern.

A couple of hours down I-95, a stakes quadruple-header at Delaware Park is highlighted by the Delaware Oaks (G3), now a points qualifier (50-20-10-5) for the rescheduled Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs Sept. 4, and the Kent Stakes (G3T) for 3-year-old turf runners.

The Oaks and Kent kick off a Cross Country pick five that continues on with the Met Mile, Manhattan and Suburban.

Out at Los Alamitos Race Course, a five-horse renewal of the Los Alamitos Derby (G3),  which is now a points race (20-8-4-2) to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) Sept.5, goes through Bob Baffert's duo of Uncle Chuck and Thousand Words. As well, Bellafina will be odds-on against six opponents but could be vulnerable from the rail in the Great Lady M. Stakes (G2).

Let's take a look at the cross-country pick five.

Delaware Oaks (Del, race 8, 4:45 ET): If you haven't noticed, horses based at Oaklawn Park earlier in the year have scattered across the country and have been running roughshod over their competition recently. Therefore, we will key off Piece of My Heart (2) and Comical (1), the one-two finishers in the Gardenia Stakes over the Hot Springs oval. Comical gets a favorable five-pound weight shift for the rematch, but Piece of My Heart shipped to Delaware early and has logged five workouts over the track in the past month.

The backups are Hopeful Growth (5), who stretches out third time back from a layoff after a big win over allowance types, and Queen Bridget (8), who ran third to Acorn Stakes (G1) heroine Gamine at Oaklawn two back, and then ran in a turf allowance behind Crystal Cliffs, subsequently a sharp second in the Regret Stakes (G3T).

A — 1, 2

B — 5, 8

Kent (Del, race 9, 5:15 ET): Christophe Clement has two talented 3-year-old turf runners by Declaration of War — Decorated Invader, who took the Pennine Ridge (G2T) at Belmont Park two weeks ago first time out in almost three months; and Gufo (6), who has been idle since unleashing a powerful stretch kick to win the English Channel Stakes at Gulfstream Park in early May. Gufo shoots for his fourth straight score and his main obstacle appears to be Pixelate (3), a consistent colt who has been in the money in all nine outings, and has run well on six different turf courses labeled firm, good and yielding.

Jonathan Thomas sends in the B-team of Talking (1) and On Base (2). Talking had a difficult trip making his seasonal debut at Gulfstream, but still ran a third quarter in under :23  and recorded his best figure to date. On Base improved leaps and bounds for a maiden win with blinkers on second time out.

A — 6

B — 3

C — 1, 2

Runhappy Met Mile (Bel, race 9, 5:47 ET): For a race that carries such prestige and storied history, there just isn't a lot of pace on in this edition, so tactically speaking the advantage belongs to Mr Freeze (7) and Warrior's Charge (8), and both drew favorably on the outside. Mr Freeze repeats a distance cutback from nine furlongs that produced a lifetime-best effort to win the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in mid-winter. Warrior's Charge has won four of his last six on the lead and held stubbornly to save second over Mr Freeze in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap (G2).

Vekoma (2), McKinzie (3) and Code of Honor (5) are the first three betting choices but could be a bit vulnerable. Vekoma could "bounce" off a huge win in the Runhappy Carter Stakes (G1) over a sloppy track. McKinzie was a troubled second in the 2019 Met but is questionable coming off a very slow-paced win over inferior rivals in the Triple Bend Stakes (G2). Code of Honor loves Belmont but could be pace compromised after having to work harder than expected to beat the unheralded Endorsed (6) in the Westchester Stakes (G3).

A — 7, 8

B — 2, 3, 5

Manhattan (Bel, race 10, 6:20 ET): I'm all ears to any bright ideas here, because you can throw a blanket over the eight entrants based on their best efforts.

In Chad (Brown) We Trust, and we'll key his trio of Instilled Regard (1), Rockemperor (2) and Devamani (5). The firmer the better for Instilled Regard, so a forecast for thunderstorms Friday could work to his disadvantage. 

The deep closer Sadler's Joy (4) takes a third crack at the Manhattan after running third in 2017 and second the following year.

Dot Matrix (7)  just missed when second in a prep for this, beating Sadler's Joy by two lengths in the Tiller Stakes.

A — 1, 2, 5

B — 4, 7

Suburban (Bel, race 11, 6:51 ET): The top three finishers from the 2019 Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1) reconvene 13 months later, and stop us if you've heard this one before: Tacitus (1) looks like the horse to beat.

Gosh, doesn't he always, though? He was wide throughout when he split Sir Winston (6) and the off-form Joevia (5) for second in the Belmont as the favorite, and he closed out 2019 finding ways to lose the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at 8-5, the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) at 2-1, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) at 5-2. He was keyed up with blinkers on in the Travers and Gold Cup, sluggish early in the Saudi Cup (G1) and the Oaklawn Handicap, and now the blinkers are back on.

Like a lot of horses these days, Sir Winston has had a fits-and-starts campaign and hasn't been able to get into any sort of rhythm. However, his two best races came on Big Sandy at age 3, and he acted like he was in need of a race giving futile chase to Moretti (8) in the Flat Out Stakes off the bench. 

I like both of them right back here. Sir Winston will be tighter for this, and Moretti, a $900,000 son of Medaglia d'Oro , seems to finally be figuring things out for Todd Pletcher, particularly since being paired with Javier Castellano for two victories, beginning with an allowance race at Oaklawn that featured a faster pace (1:10.50 vs 1:10.67) than the Oaklawn 'Cap.

Mr. Buff (4) is a speed horse susceptible to trouble at the break, but the 14-time winner is dangerous with a clean getaway and if they leave him alone early. That's a bunch of "ifs" at 2-1 on the line.

A — 6, 8

B — 1, 4