Rare July Blue Grass Stakes in Cross Country Pick Five
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July racing at Keeneland seems a bit surreal, but they've stacked six stakes of the grade 1 or grade 2 variety into the only Saturday of an abbreviated meet, spotlighted by the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and Central Bank Ashland Stakes (G1), which are 170-point qualifying races (100-40-20-10) for the rescheduled Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). They are part of an all-stakes pick six along with the Appalachian Presented By Japan Racing Association (G2T), Madison Stakes (G1), Shakertown Stakes (G2T) and Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T).
Saturday is also "Del Cap Day" at Delware Park, where the Delaware Handicap (G2) tops a stakes tripleheader along with the Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes (G3T) and Dashing Beauty Stakes.
At Belmont Park, the Ruffian Stakes (G2) looks like easy pickings for five-time grade 1 winner and 2018 champion 3-year-old filly Mononmoy Girl, who is 2-5 against four opponents on the penultimate race day of the meet.
The Shakertown, R.G. Dick, Jenny Wiley, and Blue Grass are the first four legs of a Cross Country pick five that concludes with a 14-horse allowance (race 9) at Belmont.
Be aware storm warnings have been issued throughout the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, as Tropical Storm Fay barrels through Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
Blue Grass (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Beyond being positioned as leg 4 in the XC pick five and providing the climax to an all-stakes pick six, this key Derby prep is also the cash-out race for a $500,000 pick four and a $500,000 pick five.
Swiss Skydiver (7), the current Oaks point leader after wins in the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), Fantasy Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Oaks (G2), will try to pick up some Derby points as she takes on a dozen males as a lukewarm 3-1 favorite on the morning line.
Swiss Skydiver gets five pounds from the boys, but she's had three relatively stress-free trips in a row, and it's not like she lays over the field by any stretch of the imagination.
Based on their most recent efforts, Art Collector (3) and Rushie (10) figure fastest. Art Collector's sharp last-out score was validated when runner-up Shared Sense returned earlier this week to win the Indiana Derby (G3). Rushie was along for third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) five weeks back, and the son of Liam's Map has never taken a backward by the numbers.
For that matter, neither has Man in the Can (5), who beat older rivals in the Arkansas Breeders' Championship at Oaklawn Park, and followed up with a win over Dean Martini, who came back to capture the Ohio Derby (G3).
As a potential bust-out, Tiesto (13), a half-brother to Promises Fulfilled, rates consideration first time trying the main track for Bill Mott, whose turf-to-dirt stakes success has included Good Samaritan , Yoshida and, of course, Cigar.
A - 3, 10
B - 5, 7
C - 13
Jenny Wiley (Kee, race 8, 4:57 ET): Rushing Fall (4) was odds-on wiring this race in 2019, and will be favored to win a graded stake over this course for the fourth straight year.
Standing in her way is Jolie Olimpica (6), whose only loss from six career starts was a second to Keeper Ofthe Stars, who subsequently took the Gamely Stakes (G1T). Jolie Olimpica was idle for three months after that, and returned to win the Monrovia (G2T) under a mild drive over Oleksandra, who then beat males in the Jaipur Stakes (G1T).
My only wise-guy idea here is Toinette (8), who beat Rushing Fall in the 2018 Edgewood Presented By Forcht Bank (G3T), and could get a favorable pace setup if the two favorites hook up early.
A - 2, 6
B - 8
Delaware Handicap (Del, race 8, 4:45 ET): The track will likely be something other than fast, which shouldn't be a problem for morning-line favorite Dunbar Road (2), who splashed to victory in a sloppy running of the Alabama Stakes (G1) last summer. She's had just one race this year, however, posting a workman-like win in the Shawnee Stakes, and spots anywhere from five to 10 pounds to the field. I'd like her chances better if this race hadn't been shortened from its traditional mile and a quarter to a mile and an eighth, and so would Chad Brown.
The prospect of off-going benefits Bellera (4), who seems like a worthwhile win bet if anything like her 7-2 morning line.She is 2 for 2 in the slop including the Ladies Handicap last winter, and she will be third off the bench after a pair of excusable losses (wrong distance, wrong surface) leading to this.
At double-digit odds, I also want to give a look to Saracosa (7), who has been out-running her odds ever since winning the Bob Fortus Memorial at 31-1 five starts back.
A - 2, 4
B - 7