Handicapping: Views on Coaching Club, Haskell

A couple of 170-point qualifying events for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) highlight the stakes action July 18.

At Monmouth Park, the TVG.com Haskell Stakes (G1) tops a six-stakes card that includes four other graded stakes—the WinStar Matchmaker (G3T), Monmouth Cup (G3), United Nations Stakes (G1T), and Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3). In addition to 100 Derby points, the Haskell winner also receives a fees-paid berth to the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and becomes eligible for a $1 million bonus if able to also win the Derby and Classic.

It's opening weekend at spectator-less Saratoga Race Course, where a short but competitive field of six 3-year-old fillies will line up for the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Earlier on the program, sophomore turf males square off in the National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame Stakes (G2T).

The Matchmaker kicks off a $400,000 pick four that goes through the Monmouth Cup, United Nations and Haskell.

The Monmouth Cup starts a Cross Country Pick Five that continues on with the U.N., the Royal North Stakes (G2) at Woodbine, the Haskell and CCA Oaks.

Let's go over the Monmouth sequence, followed by the Oaks.

Matchmaker (Monmouth, race 9, 4:06 ET): Chad Brown sends out the first three choices on the morning line (shocker!) in Beautiful Lover (5), Nay Lady Nay (6) and Tapit Today (7).

Nay Lady Nay made her 4-year-old debut in the Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes (G3T) and stalled in traffic twice through the final furlong while beaten just two lengths. She gets a switch back to Paco Lopez, who was 2 for 2 on her last year beginning with a maiden win over this course.

Valedictorian (1) has won at Monmouth each of the past four years and gets some class relief after chasing Newspaperofrecord in the Just A Game Stakes (G1T). She could be long gone from the rail.

A — 6

B — 5, 7

C — 1, 8

Monmouth Cup (Mth, race 10, 4:40 ET): The keys for me are Monongahela (2) and Senior Investment (3), who finished far back in a muddy Westchester Stakes (G3) six weeks ago. The former never picked up his feet that day and may rebound back at Monmouth, where he won the 2019 Phillip H. Iselin Stakes (G3) by four lengths. Senior Investment was in great form winning three straight over the winter and reaffirmed his distaste for off-going when brought back from a freshening.

Global Campaign (1), the beaten favorite in the Blame Stakes, removes blinkers and has never lost two in a row.

Bal Harbour (9) was beaten a head in a softer renewal of the Monmouth Cup last year under Mike Smith, who is back aboard. He hasn't been out since chasing the likes of Tom's d'Etat and Maximum Security last fall but has won fresh in the past.

A — 2, 3

B — 1, 9 

United Nations (Monmouth, race 11, 5:10 ET): Arklow (1) is the class of the field as the lone grade 1 winner, but I'm inclined to toss him off a six-day turnaround following an off-the-board finish in the  TVG Elkhorn Stakes (G2T). If he beats me, he beats me.

The keys, Standard Deviation (2) and Paret (9), both returned from layoffs in the 11-furlong Tiller Stakes, and the latter wired the field at 38-1. Some may regard that performance as a fluke but based on that race and his 2019 finale when second at 22-1 in the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and a half, it may simply be that the Australian-bred gelding, who was a sprinter-miler Down Under, has found his calling as a marathoner for trainer Chuck Lawrence. He's lone speed again.

Standard Deviation came rolling too late in the Tiller with a final furlong in under 12 seconds, and the Curlin  colt bagged a couple of stakes over the Monmouth Park course as a 3-year-old.

Aquaphobia (5), Current (6) and Corelli (8) are backups. The latter, an Augustin Stable homebred by Point of Entry who is also exiting the Tiller, is first-time Lasix and adds blinkers.

A — 2, 9

B — 5, 6

C — 8

TVG Haskell (Monmouth, race 12, 5:46 ET): Bob Baffert shoots for a ninth Haskell win with Authentic (2), who will be odds-on to lead the field a merry chase—provided, that is, the son of Into Mischief  comes away from the gate in good order, which was not the case when he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) or when he ran second in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1) off a three-month absence. I expect him to move up Saturday.

Dr Post (1) looms the obvious threat off a fine second in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) behind heavily favored Tiz the Law. His chances improve if Authentic gets involved in a pace dispute with Ny Traffic (7), who has raised his game in two starts since adding blinkers.

A — 2

B — 1, 7

CCA Oaks (Saratoga, race 10, 6:16 ET): A case can be made for or against any of these fillies, and they will go once around a main track that has undergone extensive refurbishing since last summer.

A mile and an eighth at the Spa, at least historically on the old surface, has been pretty demanding, and everyone here is attempting the distance for the first time. I'm somewhat leery of morning-line favorite Tonalist's Shape (1) as the dual graded stakes winner ventures out of South Florida for the first time, and I fear the addition of blinkers (why, since she's won six of seven?!?) may have her a bit too keen from the rail, four days after blowing out three furlongs in :34.26.

Altaf (3), Crystal Ball (5) and Paris Lights (6) all won their last starts by open lengths, but none of them have stakes experience.

Indeed, the only stakes-seasoned entrant besides Tonalist's Shape is Antoinette (2), who has a solid foundation after three starts this season, beginning with a tough-trip third in the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) off a 3 1/2-month layoff. The daughter of Hard Spun  has been edging forward in small increments figure-wise since then and could be sitting on a breakthrough effort at a square price going turf to dirt.

A — 2, 3

B — 1, 5, 6