Plenty of Star Power to Handicap in Saturday's Stakes

The stakes menu looks pretty chalky on both ends of the nation this final Saturday in July, with Eclipse Award winners Maximum Security and Sistercharlie returning from their respective layoffs in the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar and the Ballston Spa (G2T) at Saratoga Race Course.

Later in the afternoon at the Spa, the highly hyped Volatile is 4-5 to lead four rivals a merry chase in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1). 

Out where the surf meets the turf, the lead-in to the San Diego 'Cap is the San Clemente Stakes (G2T), which, with 11 sophomore fillies, looks like the best opportunity to find some value, and serves as the local prep for the Del Mar Oaks Presented By The Jockey Club (G1T).

But like beauty, value is in the eye of the beholder, so let's chew on the pros and cons of the marquee favorites to see how best to deal with them.

San Diego Handicap (Dmr, race 10, 6:30 PT): Originally scheduled for last Saturday, this steppingstone to the TVG Pacific Classic (G1) pits Maximum Security (5) against Higher Power (1), who won the 2019 Pacific Classic by better than five lengths; and Midcourt (6), who has won twice from as many starts on the Del Mar surface including a front-end score in the Native Diver Stakes (G3) last fall.

Maximum Security makes his first start since finishing first in the $20 million Saudi Cup, the purse of which remains withheld pending the outcome of investigations into whether former trainer Jason Servis administered illegal medications to horses in his care. Servis is under federal indictment, accused of crimes related to administering performance-enhancing substances to his horses.

In the meantime, Maximum Security was transferred to Bob Baffert, whose training regimens of hard-and-fast workouts are the antithesis of the long gallops and slow breezes that Servis used with the son of New Year's Day.

He's also without regular rider Luis Saez, packs top weight of 127 pounds, and competes for the first time on the Del Mar track after receiving mixed reviews for two recent workouts there.

I still like him. Layoffs have never been an issue; he's never been the type that needed to carry his racetrack around with him; and, what's more, he has an early-pace advantage that becomes more pronounced if Baffert scratches Ax Man (2), which would not surprise given his six losses in graded stakes company by an average of better than 10 lengths.

What's more, Higher Power has run a bunch of disappointing races before and after his Pacific Classic upset at nearly 10-1 odds, an effort that is looking more and more like an outlier; and Midcourt coasted on easy leads in both the Native Diver and San Antonio Stakes (G2) toward the end of last year.

Maximum Security has faced a total of 85 horses and exactly one has managed to cross the finish line in front of him. He's tabbed at even money but seems better than a 50-50 proposition to rack up another win.

A - 5

B - 1, 6

Ballston Spa (Sar, race 3, 2:18 ET): Sistercharlie (5) will try to win the Diana (G1T) later at the meet, and uses this 1 1/16-mile race as a prep. I know rooting for Chad Brown is akin to rooting for Google, but it's admirable that owner Peter Brant brought the champion female turf runner of 2018 back for a 6-year-old campaign, so I would be happy to see her come back strong.

The distance is a bit short for Sistercharle, though, even with pacemaker North Broadway (3) in to set the table for the deep-closing mare, and yet the seven-time grade 1 winner is simply a layover on class.

Yes, Starship Jubilee (6) is a great story after being claimed for $16,000 in 2017 and becoming Canada's Horse of the Year in 2019, but her crowning achievement was a win in the E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1T) last fall, and no bona fide grade 1 runners were behind her. A rallying third in this race last summer, she makes her first start since early March, and, like Sistercharlie, could also be in need of a race.

Worth a look as the third choice is Call Me Love (1) for the combination of Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario, who have gotten off to terrific starts at the meet.

Call Me Love, a group stakes winner overseas from on and off the pace, will be third off the bench after beginning her United States career with two promising races at Belmont Park—a second in the Beaugay Stakes (G3T) chasing Rushing Fall, who has since gone on to become a grade 1 winner in four straight years; and then chasing Mean Mary in the New York Stakes (G2T) through slow fractions, but uncorking a fourth quarter in under 23 seconds. She ought to be dead-fit cutting back from 10 furlongs.

What's a fair price against Sistercharlie in a short field? That's hard to say, but Call Me Love can definitely give the favorite a tussle in this situation.

A - 5

B - 1

A.G. Vanderbilt (Sar, race 10, 6:16 ET): Of the three big chalks Saturday, Volatile, to my mind, seems like the most vulnerable. The pricey ($850,000) son of Violence  has wowed observers with two lopsided wins to begin his 4-year-old season—taking a high-end optional claimer at Oaklawn Park, followed by an eight-length romp in the Aristedes Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he ran six furlongs in 1:07.57 and just missed the track record.

The general consensus is that Volatile will have a pace advantage in his first graded stakes try, but I wonder about that. Given the long run-up distance for six furlongs at Churchill, and the fact that the track was lightning fast on the day of the Aristedes, the pace (21.48 and 44.36) was not all that supersonic when adjusted.

It's not like Violence is facing any tomato cans, either. Whitmore (2) is a 14-time winner of more than $3 million; Firenze Fire (3) is a multiple graded winner closing in on $2 million; and Mind Control (5) is attempting to become the first horse to notch grade 1 victories at Saratoga in three consecutive years.

Notice that Firenze Fire rebounded from a misfire in a sloppy edition of the Runhappy Carter Handicap (G1) to win the True North Stakes (G2) three weeks later. Finishing five lengths behind him in the Carter was Mind Control, who simply never picked up his feet over the off-going.

Mind Control has all tactical options available breaking from outside in this field of five. If he is really going to be 6-1, I am willing to pay to find out if Volatile is the real deal.

A - 5

B - 1, 2, 3