Handicapping: Views on Saratoga, Monmouth, Del Mar

The first Saturday in August is Whitney Day at Saratoga Race Course, and the 93rd running of the Whitney Stakes (G1) tops a five-stakes program bolstered by the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1), the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Presented By Runhappy (G1), the Bowling Green Stakes (G2T), and the Caress Stakes.

Out at Del Mar, the stakes action begins early with the Shared Belief Stakes carded as race 2. Much later, the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) offers the winner a fees-paid berth to the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1).

On the Jersey Shore, the Monmouth Oaks (G3) is an 85-point qualifier (50-20-10-5) for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Meanwhile, the Florida Sires Stakes Series is scheduled to get going at Gulfstream Park with the Desert Vixen and the Dr. Fager divisions. However, South Florida is currently under a tropical storm watch as Isaias is expected to lash South Florida with heavy rain and wind, so that card could be in jeopardy.

There's also some uncertainty about potential key scratches in some races, so let's change things up a bit this week and go through the menu in chronological order (all times Eastern).

Personal Ensign (Sar, race 5, 3:28): Midnight Bisou (3) is 2-5 to win a fees-paid berth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), in which she was third in 2018 and second last year en route to winning an Eclipse Award as champion older female. It's kind of a mismatch on paper, since Point of Honor(6), who prevailed narrowly in the 2019 Black Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) is the only other graded stakes winner.

There's not much pace in the field, so I may take a cold exacta using Motion Emotion (2) underneath. She was no match for the champ when a distant second in the Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2) last out, but chased an extremely fast pace set by Serengeti Empress. Perhaps they will leave her alone early—and if you've watched any races on the New York circuit, you know that's always a very real possibility. Plus, how often do you get Irad Ortiz Jr. at 20-1?

A - 3

B - 2

Shared Belief (Dmr, race 2, 5:30): Honor A. P. (5) tunes up for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1), and will wind up a prohibitive favorite if Uncle Chuck (1) is withheld in favor of the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) next Saturday, and Anneau d'Or (3) awaits the Ellis Park Derby a week from Sunday. That would leave Cezanne (6), a lightly raced $3.65 million Curlin  colt, as the second choice in a field of four. This race is a hard pass for me.

Monmouth Oaks (Mth, race 11, 5:31): The top six finishers from the Delaware Oaks (G3) are back, and it's tough to know what to do with any of them in light of the stunning upset by Project Whiskey (8) as the longshot shot on the board at 38-1.

I could see beaten favorite Piece of My Heart (5) bouncing back under more patient handling, and second choice Hopeful Growth (4) running better with blinkers back on Saturday.

We're looking elsewhere for the keys with Lucrezia (6) and Eve of War (9).

Lucrezia chased the freaky Gamine in a blazingly fast Longines Acorn Stakes (G1) first out in nearly three months, but anything like her second behind the accomplished Swiss Skydiver in the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) puts her in the hunt.

Eve of War fought rating early in the Regret Stakes (G3T), and her early-pace style is well suited for the return to dirt. She may be sent to cross and clear for the lead from her outside post.

A - 6, 9

B - 4, 5

Whitney (Sar, race 9, 5:42): It's impossible to root against Tom's d'Etat (5), but I wonder if the 7-year-old is susceptible to regression after uncorking a lifetime top figure in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) five weeks ago. Other than Commentator, who at age 7 won the Whitney for the second time, you have to go back to Kelso (1965 at age 8) to find any horses of such advanced age winning this race.

Many will see Improbable (2) or Code of Honor (3) as the most likely alternatives, but the former is no cinch to break cleanly, and the latter may not be tactical enough in a short field with little pace other than Mr. Buff (4), who appears overmatched.

By My Standards (1) couldn't handle Tom's d'Etat in the Foster, but was clearly second best. He's still got plenty of upside midway through his 4-year-old season, has an explosive figure pattern after pairing new tops, and he is going to be the fourth choice. Sign me up.

The Whitney begins an all-stakes pick four.

A - 1

B - 2, 3, 5

Allen Jerkens (Sar, race 10, 6:18): For better or worse, I'm tossing morning-line favorite No Parole (6), even though he is unbeaten from four sprint starts capped by a score in the Woody Stephens Presented By Claiborne Farm (G1).

No one so much as breathed on No Parole that day, and he skipped over a ridiculously fast track without changing leads through the stretch. He won't be able to get away with that again, as I expect Echo Town (4) and Mischevious Alex (5) to be handled more aggressively this time, while Eight Rings (2) also brings speed to the table.

In his only appearance this year, Eight Rings came up short at 4-5 in the Bachelor Stakes, and Bob Baffert—who expressed misgivings about running him that day—has hit the reset button with this son of Empire Maker , who is the only other grade 1 winner in the lineup. He's got to go from the 2-hole, and you have to figure, as Woody Stephens used to say: He's here for a reason, not the season.

I also think Shoplifted (7) can land somewhere on the board at boxcar odds. He comes off a classic "bid, hung" line in the Woody Stephens, which was his first sprint since a second in the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1).

Tap It to Win (11) is on a bounce-rebound pattern after coming up short in the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1). He has won from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, so seven-eighths seems like a good fit, and he may trip out nicely tracking from outside. Note that two back he drilled Country Grammer, who subsequently took the Peter Pan Stakes (G3).

A - 2, 11

B - 5, 7, 8

Bowling Green (Sar, race 11, 6:50): It's the usual suspects, i.e. Sadler's Joy and the gang, and you're on your own here.

Caress (Sar, race 12, 7:22): This race I can help you with. This turf dash offers two possibilities: 1) Jakarta (5) speed pops them; or, more likely, 2) Dalika (7) comes rolling and blows by everyone.

Since being made over as a turf sprinter, Dalika has unleashed a pair of electric stretch runs, first winning an optional claimer off the bench, and then falling a half-length short in the License Fee Stakes through a driving rainstorm. She was put on her toes with a bullet half-mile workout last week, and only needs a bare minimum of racing luck.

A - 7

B - 5

Bing Crosby (Dmr, race 10, 9:30): Not making any definitive plans here due to the fact that McKinzie (4) will reportedly scratch in favor of the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2) at a more suitable seven furlongs.

That would be good news for Fashionably Fast (6), who had won six in a row before running second to McKinzie in the Triple Bend Stakes (G2) first time out in more than three months

I'll tune in to watch, provided, that is, that the lights are still on down here in South Florida.