Improbable was surely the operative word in the 93rd and most unusual edition of the Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course Aug. 1.
Having perhaps about 100 people watching the race live was strange enough. Yet in the seconds before the 1 1/8-mile race began and right after the starting gates opened, two events took place that profoundly shaped the outcome.
Shortly after the field of five was loaded into the gate, jockey Irad Otiz Jr. on Improbable could be heard yelling, "No, no, no" at the top of his lungs to stop the starter from opening the gates. A second later, Improbable reared in his stall, a sight often seen in the 4-year-old's races outside of California.
In the past, Improbable had been his own worst enemy in races such as the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) when he lost after being unruly or breaking slowly. Yet this time, with some expert help from the starting gate crew, Improbable quickly calmed down and when the starting gate opened, he departed smoothly and flawlessly.
The same could not be said for the favored Tom's d'Etat. Though he was a good actor in the gate, the 7-year-old horse and winner of four consecutive races stumbled leaving the gate under jockey Joel Rosario and came away last.
After that, it was a highly predictable outcome for a horse with a name that conjures up thought of unlikely occurrences.
Without Tom's d'Etat to press or stalk the frontrunner, Improbable chased a slow pace in second, then took charge with five-sixteenths left and sailed to a two-length victory over By My Standards in the $695,000 Whitney Stakes to earn a free spot in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) as part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge program.
"Improbable showed up today. It was very impressive. He's put it all together. He's one of the prettiest-moving horses you'll see, and he was in a great rhythm today," said Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who won last year's Whitney with McKinzie and became the first trainer since Scotty Schulhofer in 1994-95 to score back-to-back wins.
"It was a nice half-hour," he added, referencing Thousand Words' win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, which took place shortly before the Whitney.
Improbable's performance came on the heels of a sharp victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and allowed the son of City Zip to finally reach the potential he displayed at 2, when he was a grade 1 winner, and last year at 3, when he was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Preakness. Back then, he was known around Baffert's barn as "Little Justify ." Part of that might have stemmed from having similar owners as the Triple Crown winner, yet he was surely as dynamic as his illustrious stablemate Saturday.
"He was always cut out to be a good horse, but he was so immature. Collected was like that," Baffert said about a grade 1-winning son of City Zip he trained. "Those City Zips get better when they get older. I train for a great group, and they let me take my time with him."
For that ownership group of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing, there were some anxious moments before the race but relative calm during it as Improbable won for just the second time outside of California.
"Obviously, we had to get over the gate (issues) a little bit, and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job," said WinStar Farm CEO Elliott Walden. "He's always got a little blowup in him and then he settles down. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good."
The win was the sixth in 13 starts for Improbable, who was bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. from the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event. Bought for $200,000 by Maverick Racing and China Horse Club from the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, he lifted his earnings to $1,529,520.
"The Whitney is a race that everybody wants to win, and WinStar has yet to win one, so it was a great win for us, SF, China Horse Club, and the whole team," Walden said. "To do it with this horse, who has been so good for three years, he's danced every dance. He's given us a lot of pleasure. He was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and he won a grade 1 as a 2-year-old. We talked about whether we should run in the (Pacific Classic, G1) or the Whitney, but the Whitney is such a prestigious race and Tom's d'Etat was the leader of the division at the time, and I felt like he deserved to run against him and Code of Honor, too.
"Even though it was a small field, it was a spectacular field. He did it the right way and completely dominated, which was great."
An awkward start coupled with slow fractions basically eliminated G M B Racing's Tom's d'Etat from the mix as he came away several lengths behind the field and was six lengths back in last in the small but stellar field of five millionaires after longshot Mr. Buff carved out a dawdling :49.74 opening half-mile.
"He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on," Rosario said. "He was standing fine, he just missed the break. The horse to the inside of him was moving a little bit, he was straight, he just stumbled a little bit. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn't take my time."
At that point, Improbable and By My Standards, who was third, were poised to blow past the tiring leader, which they did before the quarter pole. From there, Improbable edged away to open a safe three-length lead over By My Standards at the eighth pole.
Third choice Improbable ($8.50), who opened 2020 with a three-quarter-length loss to Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes, finished in 1:48.65.
"He's been so consistent throughout his career, winning a grade 1 at 2, being the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and it's been three years in a row that he's continued to perform," said Walden, whose farm recently acquired the breeding rights to Tom's d'Etat. "It's a credit to Bob and his whole team. The horse is a fabulous racehorse, and the best is yet to come."
Though Tom's d'Etat failed to have much of an impact on the outcome, the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) winner and No. 1 choice in the most recent Longines Breeders' Cup Classic poll ran well to finish third as the even-money favorite, a half-length behind Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards, a Goldencents colt who was second in the Stephen Foster, 4 1/4 lengths behind the son of Smart Strike.
Will Farish's Code of Honor, a homebred Noble Mission 4-year-old who captured the Spa's Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) a year ago, also received no help from the slow pace as the 5-2 second choice finished fourth, five lengths behind Improbable.
"With a slow pace, he should have been on the bridle right behind those horses. He broke well enough, and I was right behind them and then he just ran kind of flat from there," jockey John Velazquez said.
Whitney Day generated a record all-sources handle of $35,796,435, passing the old mark of $31,835,863 set a year ago.