Betting the Southwest Stakes on a Budget
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Far Right pulled away from runner-up Bayerd in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 19. All three return for the Southwest Stakes on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. (Coady Photography)
After being postponed from President’s Day, the $300,000, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes was rescheduled for Sunday at Oaklawn Park and the 1 1/16-mile race drew 11 3-year-olds competing for a total of 17 qualifying points for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, with 10 points will be awarded to the winner.
Coming into the Southwest Stakes, the horses expected to attract the most gambling dollars at the betting windows are Far Right (#6) and Mr. Z (#11).
Far Right won his most recent race, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 19. Mr. Z finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes in a race in which Mr. Z ran very erratically in the final stages of the race, which cost him dearly.
Both Far Right and Mr. Z deserve credit for the solid résumés they already have built for themselves, and I will not be surprised if either one wins the Southwest Stakes.
However, I do believe there are some very logical alternatives to both Far Right and Mr. Z in this race, and I think it may be worth including them and trying to pull a slight upset in the Southwest Stakes:
#1 Bayerd: This colt has been a model of consistency so far in his young career, having never finished worse than third in six lifetime races. Most recently, Bayerd finished second in the aforementioned Smarty Jones Stakes, which is an effort that should set him up nicely for a good performance in the Southwest Stakes on Sunday. Both his trainer, Steve Asmussen, and his jockey, Ramon Vazquez, do very well at Oaklawn Park.
#3 Hillbilly Royalty: Speed is the name of this guy’s game, and Hillbilly Royalty currently sports an unblemished record of two victories in two career races. Most recently, Hillbilly Royalty was able to win a 1 1/16-mile race at Oaklawn Park, which is the same track and distance he will tackle on Sunday in the Southwest Stakes. He most likely will attempt to head to the front of the pack at the start of the Southwest, and lead the race from start to finish. If he runs as well as he did in his most recent race on Feb. 6, Hillbilly Royalty could be able to do exactly that.
#4 Private Prospect: This colt began his career in phenomenal fashion. He finished first or second in his first four races. While a trip to California for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile did not turn out well, Private Prospect ran a solid “comeback race” — the first race for a horse after he has been on a break from racing for a period of time — when finishing fourth behind both Far Right and Mr. Z in the aforementioned Smarty Jones Stakes. Private Prospect should be more physically fit for the Southwest Stakes, and if he can get back to his winning ways of 2014, he could win this race at very nice odds.
Betting Strategy on a Budget
$2 exacta box: 1,3,4 ($12)
$1 exacta: 6,11 with 1,3,4 ($6)
$300,000 Southwest StakesOaklawn Park , Sunday, Race 8, 5:42 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Morning Line
1
Bayerd
Ramon Vazquez
Steve Asmussen
Clark O. Brewster
TBD
2
Majestico
Terry Thompson
D. Wayne Lukas
Calumet Farm
TBD
3
Hillbilly Royalty
Luis Quinonez
Donnie Von Hemel
Dream Walkin Farms, Inc.
TBD
4
Private Prospect
Alex Birzer
Michael Campbell
Mellon Patch, Inc.
TBD
5
Bold Conquest
Ricardo Santana Jr.
Steve Asmussen
Ackerley Brothers Farm
TBD
6
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
LaPenta, Robert V.and Rosenblum, Harry T.
TBD
7
Phenomenal Phoenix
Clifton Berry
Donnie Von Hemel
Sanders, Wayne and Hirsch, Larry
TBD
8
The Truth Or Else
Calvin Borel
Ken McPeek
Harold Lerner
TBD
9
Kantune
Shaun Bridgmohan
Mark Casse
Gary Barber
TBD
10
Bold Animaux
Israel Ocampo
Michael Biehler
Ulwelling, Al and Bill
TBD
11
Mr. Z
Corey Nakatani
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
TBD