Keep an Eye Toward the Sky at Saratoga

Mother Nature could play a factor in four graded stakes at Saratoga Race Course on the final Saturday in August, as what's left of Hurricane Laura veers to the Northeast.

With an 80% chance of significant storms, handicappers will need to keep an eye to the sky before making final decisions about the Saranac Stakes (G3T), Amsterdam Stakes (G2), Forego Stakes Presented By America's Best Racing (G1), and the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1T), which is a "Win & You're In" race for the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T).

Conditions should be clear and fast out at Del Mar, where the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2) offers the winner a fees-paid berth in the Nov. 7 Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Here are some thoughts on the above in chronological order (all times Eastern).

Saranac (Sar, race 3, 2:18): Perhaps by carding this race early in the day, these 3-year-olds will actually get to run on the turf. I'm against morning-line choice Vanzzy (1), who got a dream run up the rail to beat Bye Bye Melvin (2) and Irish Mias (7) in the Jersey Derby. The latter two will be third off the layoff for Graham Motion.

The keys, however, are L'Imperator (4), Don Juan Kitten (5) and Bodecream (10).

L'Imperator is a French-bred import making his stateside debut for Chad Brown, and will move way up if the rains come early judging from three wins overseas on soft or heavy ground.

Don Juan Kitten steps up in sharp form after an allowance win over the course and one-mile trip. Two back, he just missed to Domestic Spending, who has since won the $500,000 Saratoga Derby.

Bodecream goes first time off a private purchase for new trainer Mike Maker. He ran well on good and yielding turf in back-to-back starts at the turn of the year.

A - 4, 5, 10

B - 2, 7

Amsterdam (Sar, race 7 4:32): Yaupon (2) is from the same connections as last year's champion male sprinter Mitole , and the 3-year-old son of Uncle Mo  may have the same sort of potential after showing gameness to withstand a long drive in his debut at Churchill Downs and showing brilliance wiring older allowance sprinters opening weekend at the Spa.

I'm tossing Liam's Pride (6), Wondrwherecraigis (5), and Long Weekend (3), the first three finishers in the Gold Fever Stakes July 10 that unfolded through a final quarter-mile in more than 26 seconds.

Basin (1) and Premier Star (4) are the backups.

Basin was transferred to Todd Pletcher after finishing off the board in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2), and should be well served by the cutback to sprints. He won twice at Saratoga last year, notably a sloppy renewal of the Hopeful (G1).

Premier Star has won three of four sprints, the lone defeat a tough-trip fourth off a layoff behind older nine-time winner Eastern Bay. The Maryland invader was good enough to beat Runhappy Travers (G1) runner-up Caracoro at first asking, and had a useful workout on a sloppy strip at the Spa last week.

A - 2

B - 1, 4

Forego (Sar, race 8, 5:07): For a top-level sprint there's not much early speed among the 11 entrants. That may be why Complexity (6) is tabbed as the second choice, because ever since his front-running win in the 2018 Champagne Stakes (G1), his three attempts at the grade 1 level have not been pretty. Maybe he controls an easy pace on the heels of a sharp comeback win in a high-end optional claimer for Chad Brown, but he's tough to trust overall.

Brown's other entrant, Fortin Hill (11), makes his stakes debut off a big-figure win at Belmont Park, and should be free and clear tracking from outside; he is perfect from three starts under Irad Ortiz Jr.

Win Win Win (7) was a troubled second to Complexity last out, in what was his first one-turn race since winning the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes in track-record time as a 3-year-old early in 2019. He's third off the bench now, and flew five furlongs in :58  and change in a recent local work.

Whitmore (2) and Mind Control (10) had virtually no chance to catch favored Volatile in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) once the latter got loose through a first quarter in :23.46, and they figure to have a big say in the outcome.

Whitmore, a rail-skimming Forego winner in 2018, hasn't lost much off his fastball at age 7, and has handled off-going in the past.

Muck and mire is more of an uncertainty for Mind Control in light of a no-show effort in a sloppy Runhappy Carter Handicap (G1) two back, but not all wet tracks are the same (he did win the 2019 Jerome over a good surface), and his four graded stakes wins at seven-eighths include the 2018 Hopeful and 2019 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes (G1) locally.

A - 2, 10

B - 6, 7, 11

Sword Dancer (Sar, race 9, 5:43): Sadler's Joy (8) runs in his fourth Sword Dancer and long-time nemesis Channel Maker (4) runs in the 12-furlong race for the third time.

Rain-softened footing would work to the advantage of Channel Maker, whose three stakes wins on such ground include the 2018 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1T).

Aquaphobia (2) and Pedro Cara (7) may offer some value.

Aquaphobia, a $62,500 claim by Mike Maker out of his seasonal debut in January, comes off an upset victory in the United Nations (G1T). He ran well on yielding turf at Saratoga "off the page" back in 2018.

Pedro Cara has run well on all manner of footing in France, Spain, Qatar, and in his only prior start in the United States when beaten in a head bob in the $1 million Jockey Club Invitational last fall. He has posted a series of promising workouts at Fair Hill for new trainer Graham Motion, who has excelled with fresh grass runners this year.

A - 4, 7

B - 2, 8

Pat O'Brien (Dmr, race 10, 9:38): Law Abidin Citizen (1) could control the pace assuming a clean break from the rail, and Giant Expectations (7) won this race in 2017 and missed by a head last year, but this looks like a good spot for Flagstaff (4).

Flagstaff has been freshened since giving futile chase to McKinzie in a slow-paced Triple Bend (G2) in early June, and has been working bullets at Del Mar the past several weeks. He projects for a stalking trip just outside Law Abidin Citizen—who is questionable at seven furlongs—and will get the jump on Giant Expectations, who is now 7 and making his first start in almost 10 months.

C Z Rocket (5) has some issues at the gate, but has swept three starts since claimed by Peter Miller. He has some back class at seven furlongs, too, having won a  small stakes and finished a close fourth in the Forego in 2018.

A - 4

B - 5, 7