Speech, Honor A. P. Offer Betting Appeal in Oaks, Derby

Imposing favorites tower over the fabled Twin Spires at Churchill Downs this Oaks-Derby weekend, which has arrived a bit later than anyone could have predicted at the start of 2020. 

The Sept. 4 Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) looms a showdown between even-money favorite Gamine and rock-solid second choice Swiss Skydiver and tops a card that includes five other graded stakes.

Among the other stakes is the La Troienne Stakes Presented By Oak Grove Racing and Gaming (G1), in which Monomoy Girl, the 2018 Oaks winner and champion 3-year-old filly, is tabbed at 4-5 against last year's winner She's a Julie and others.

The long-awaited 146th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) is all about Tiz the Law, who, at 3-5 on the morning line, will likely become the first odds-on Derby favorite since Arazi (1992) went postward at 9-10 nearly three decades ago. 

The Run for the Roses climaxes a program featuring six additional graded stakes, notably the Derby City Distaff Presented By Derby City Gaming (G1) where 2019 Oaks winner Serengeti Empress is 9-5 to lead nine rivals a merry chase; and the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1T), which is undoubtedly the most wide-open of the weekend's five grade 1 offerings.

After some rain earlier in the week, the sun is expected to shine bright on the old Kentucky home.

Let's go over the grade 1 races in chronological order (all times ET).

Friday's Races

La Troienne (CD, race 11, 4:50): Illness and injury kept Monomoy Girl (8) sidelined for a year and a half following her victory in the 2018 Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) over this track. The daughter of Tapizar  shook off the rust to win a high-end optional claimer in May, and then took a big step back to peak form with a pace-pressing win in the Ruffian Stakes (G2) over Vexatious (2), who is back for another shot at the champ after beating heavily favored Midnight Bisou in the Personal Ensign Stakes(G1).

Horologist (1) is the co-second choice with Vexatious after overcoming the far outside post to win the Molly Pitcher Stakes (G3) after a trainer change to Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

Monomoy Girl has crossed the line first in 12 of 13 starts and seems like a logical stand-alone in pick-everythings. For vertical wagers, I'm taking a small shot against Horologist and Vexatious, either of which could bounce off lifetime-top figures—particularly the former, who is 5 for 5 at Monmouth Park and 1 for 12 elsewhere.

Saracosa (4) isn't a viable threat to win, but the Bernardini  mare usually gets a piece (in the money all local starts) and has improved in four starts for Cipriano Contreras, capped by a runner-up finish in the Delaware Handicap (G2).

Lady Kate (7) didn't handle the slop as the second choice to Monomoy Girl three back, but she has since won twice. If aimed at this spot over the Derby City Distaff, she is capable of controlling the pace provided She's a Julie (6), who is always hard to gauge, doesn't run with her early.

A – 8

B – 4, 7

Kentucky Oaks (CD, race 12, 5:45): Those who are intent on linking Swiss Skydiver and Gamine to Tiz the Law can look forward to collecting the shortest Oaks-Derby double payoff ever. What fun is that?

While I am fascinated by the brilliance of Gamine (5) and greatly admire the rock-solid steadiness of Swiss Skydiver (1), it's fair to wonder if either or both might bring something less than their best in this situation.

For one thing, both are habitually on or just off the early lead, and they could hook up right out of the gate. 

For another, Swiss Skydiver (20 days) and Gamine (27 days) return fairly quickly off fast wins at Saratoga Race Course in the Alabama Stakes (G1) and Longines Test Stakes (G1), respectively. Although they appeared to win those races rather handily, you just never know for sure about the hangover effects. Swiss Skydiver, the lone Oaks entrant to have been past 1 1/16 miles, has run at seven different tracks through a busy season. Gamine has only been two turns once when she prevailed by a neck in an optional claimer at Oaklawn Park and was subsequently disqualified after testing for excessive amounts of the legal medication lidocaine.

The filly that ran Gamine to a photo that day was Speech (4), and I'm giving her a shot to pull off a mild upset here. Following that race at Oaklawn, Speech chased Swiss Skydiver around the track in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and then won the Central Bank Ashland (G1) convincingly July 11.

I like the spacing between the Ashland and Oaks for Speech, and there's a real chance she will wind up in the garden spot tracking the favorites.

For a bomb, Tempers Rising (2) is worth considering. I think 50-1 is rather harsh for filly who was a neck behind Swiss Skydiver in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2) and second in the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Plus, the Dallas Stewart factor is in play (more on this later).

I don't know what to expect from Donna Veloce (3), who beat Speech by open lengths in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) in her only appearance of 2020 six months ago.

A – 1, 4

B – 5

C – 2, 3

Saturday's Races

Derby City Distaff (CD, race 12, 5:17): Last year's winner Mia Mischief (1) is under the gun from the rail, and she will have to be used early to maintain position as Serengeti Empress (8) goes out winging.

Mia Mischief gave 1-2 chalk Guarana all she wanted before coming up a half-length short in the Madison Stakes (G1) last out, and Serengeti Empress also exits a peak performance wiring the Ballerina Stakes (G1) at the Spa over Bellafina (9). The latter has never won outside Southern California and was out of the money as the favorite at Churchill in the 2019 Oaks and 2018 Tito's Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

A seven-furlong race with a competitive pace often suits routers turning back, and Ce Ce (10) fits the bill. She was classy enough to win the Beholder Mile (G1) and Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) back to back earlier in the year and is second back from a freshening with a beneficial outside draw.

Wildwood's Beauty (3), Bell's the One (4) and Sally's Curlin (6) offer some appeal to land somewhere on the board at double-digit odds.

A – 10

B – 3, 4, 6

C – 1, 8

Old Forester Turf Classic (CD, race 13, 5:50): All due respect to Factor This (1) after four straight stakes wins, but he is a speed horse destined to get pace pressure from Somelikeithotbrown (9) and Spectacular Gem (10), who have to hit the ground running from outside.

Spectacular Gem is also entered in the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs Sept. 7. A decision on which race in which he competes is expected Friday.

The matchup seems favorable for off-the-pace runners, and we default to the Chad Brown-trained trio of Rockemperor (3), Digital Age (4), and Sacred Life (8), all of which have exhibited sharp form in their most recent races. Why fight it?

Mr Dumas (6) and True Valour (7) are a pair of 12-1 shots who can be in the mix. The former was compromised by a slow tempo chasing Somelikeithotbrown in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2T) and gets a five-pound shift in the weights this time. True Valour was purchased at auction and transferred to Graham Motion after fading in the American Stakes (G3T); his only prior try at 1 1/8 miles came without Lasix first time in the U. S. in the 2018 Eddie Read Handicap (G2T).

A – 3, 4, 8

B – 1, 6

C – 7

Kentucky Derby (CD, race 14, 7:01): The Funny Cide gang is back with Tiz the Law, a steadily improving son of Constitution  who suffered his lone defeat here in a sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (2) when bottled up inside much of the way.

Any fears of a similar predicament vanished when Tiz the Law drew one from the outside. The central question is this: Tiz the Law has thrived with his races spaced well apart, having eight weeks leading to the Champagne (G1); two months to the Holy Bull (G3); eight weeks to the Curlin Florida Derby (G1); seven weeks to the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1); and seven more weeks to the Runhappy Travers (G1). It has only been four weeks since he ran a hole in the wind in the Travers, and all this has to catch up to him at some point, doesn't it? Bear in mind the Belmont and Travers were prizes that eluded Funny Cide, and these races should not be construed as preps for the Derby in any way, shape, or form.

On the other hand, Honor A. P. (16) had a quintessential prep behind Thousand Words (10) in the Shared Belief Stakes. He didn't wow observers the way he did in winning the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1), but the race was merely a steppingstone. It's worth noting he was knocked into a rival at the start (good practice for the Derby!) and made two moves while three-wide the whole way.

I don't believe we've seen the best from Honor A. P. , but I can't say that about Tiz the Law.

Thousand Words has a sky-high Dosage Index of 7.00 (remember Dosage?), but returned to form in the Shared Belief and is a stubborn fighter when firing on all cylinders.

Past those two this race is a scramble, as there are several middle-odds runners who may get burned up chasing King Guillermo (6) and Authentic (18), neither of which figures to be around at the finish.

(King Guillermo's did not train Sept. 3 due to a "little issue," trainer Juan Carlos Avila said. Stay tuned.)

We're looking at late-running types like Max Player (2), Enforceable (3), Major Fed (5), South Bend (8), Mr. Big News (9), and Winning Impression (14) to fill out some underneath slots.

Winning Impression was nowhere in the Indiana Derby (G3) and Ellis Park Derby off a freshening, but what you see on paper doesn't necessarily matter in these big races when it comes to horses trained by Dallas Stewart. In three consecutive years, 2013-15, he sent out Derby runner-ups Golden Soul (34-1) and Commanding Curve (37-1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) runner-up Tale of Verve  (28-1).

A – 16, 17

B – 10

C – 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 14