Handicapping: The All-Stakes Pick 5 at Kentucky Downs

Four of the five graded stakes races in North America Sept. 12 take place at Kentucky Downs, which figures to set handle records since New York and Southern California are dark. There are five stakes worth a combined $3.2 million on the richest day of the six-day Runhappy meet, and there is a 50-cent pick five linking the $500,000 Three Chimneys Ladies Turf (G3T), the $500,000 Spendthrift Farm Ladies Sprint (G3T), the $500,000 Fifth Third Insurance Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint, the $1 million Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup (G3T), and the $700,000 Runhappy Turf Sprint (G3T).

    

It's also Queen's Plate Day up at Woodbine, which had originally been scheduled for June 27. The $1 million race for Ontario-bred 3-year-olds is the last of five stakes on a card that also includes the $250,000 Canadian Stakes Presented By The Japan Racing Association (G2T) and the $250,000 Bison City Stakes for sophomore Ontario-bred fillies.

At Monmouth Park, the multiple graded stakes winner Mind Control looks to snap a three-race losing streak against six opponents in the Mr. Prospector Stakes.

Let's run through the 14% takeout, all-stakes late pick five at Kentucky Downs. All times listed are ET, though Kentucky Downs itself is in the central time zone. 

Ladies Turf (Kentucky Downs, race 7, 4:27): Tempting fate and bucking the odds, let's start off by relegating both Chad Brown-trained runners, Tapit Today (3) and Regal Glory (6), to the B-list. The latter is tabbed as the 9-5 favorite but hasn't won in almost 13 months since dead-heating in the Lake Placid Stakes (G2T) against 3-year-olds last summer.

Mitchell Road (1) is a speed horse who is sometimes slow from the gate, which is dicey, but she was a solid second in this race last year despite some traffic problems and comes off a throw-out race over soft turf in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Stakes when behind and between horses three-wide. She needs to be right up on the pace and gets a big rider switch back to Luis Saez, who was two-for-two on the English Channel  mare last year including a win over multiple grade 2 winner Beau Recall.

Secret Message (8) relishes the one-mile distance (2-1-0 from three starts) and was up against it trying to close into a final five-sixteenths in 28 seconds in the Perfect Sting Stakes at Saratoga Race Course last out.

A — 1, 8

B — 3, 6

Ladies Sprint (Kentucky Downs, race 8, 4:59): Going against another favorite in Got Stormy (8), who is back in three weeks after finally showing some of her old form chasing a loose Halladay around the course in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1T). Maybe she'll handle the cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs, but why take a short price to find out?

Cariba (7) has had six weeks since getting up to win the 5 1/2-furlong Caress Stakes at the Spa, and retains Irad Ortiz Jr.

Into Mystic (9) has improved in two starts since switched to turf; she is stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs, but got seven-eighths in her maiden win on dirt, and has a versatile running style.

Winning Envelope (3) rates a look at 20-1 or so. She missed narrowly in her initial turf dash two back at Churchill Downs against Change of Control (5), and should relish this longer sprint. She comes off a pair of blistering workouts over the synthetic surface at Arlington International Racecourse.

A — 7, 9

B — 3, 5, 8

Juvenile Turf Sprint (Kentucky Downs, race 9, 5:32): As is often the case in turf sprints for 2-year-olds, Wesley Ward sends out the horses to beat in Outadore (9) and Fauci (10), who are drawn favorably for stalking trips outside.

Purchased for $475,000, County Final (4) was the sales topper at the Fasig-Tipton July Horses Of Racing Age sale. The Oxbow  colt promptly earned back $45,000 of that by winning the off-the-turf Tyro in his first start for Steve Asmussen.

A — 9, 10

B — 4

Kentucky Cup (Kentucky Downs, race 10, 6:04): Zulu Alpha (10) and Arklow (5) finished one-two in this race a year ago, and lock horns for the 10th time.

In 2019, Zulu Alpha became the fourth Kentucky Cup winner in the last five years for Mike Maker, and the gelding has been in top form throughout his 7-year-old campaign. On the other hand, Arklow has lost a couple of steps this season, and the deep closer will be adding blinkers as his connections try to get him in the game a bit earlier.

Red Knight (2) may fall through the cracks a bit, but it would be a mistake to dismiss his chances first time out since a five-wide move fizzled out in the William L. McKnight Stakes (G3T) back in January. The Bill Mott-trained gelding has run well fresh on several occasions, and in fact, edged Zulu Alpha for second in the 2019 Dixiana Elkhorn (G2T) in his seasonal bow.

Eons (4) boasts a promising figure pattern, and the 2019 Kent Stakes (G3T) winner may be sitting on a breakthrough effort third time back.

Postulation (6) was beaten a head in the 2017 Kentucky Cup and led Zulu Alpha to deep stretch in his lone outing of 2020. 

Hierarchy (12) is currently in career-best form and will be running on late.

A — 2, 10

B — 4, 6, 12

Turf Sprint (Kentucky Downs, race 11, 6:36): You can throw a blanket over a large handful of contenders in this event, which is so wide open that last year's winner Totally Boss (4) is the 9-2 favorite.

I've got check marks next to six others as well, including the 5-1 co-second choices Front Run the Fed (3), Kanthaka (6) and Bound for Nowhere (12).

Stubbins (2) arrives fresh for Doug O'Neill and handled the course well when second in the Nevada State Bank Franklin-Simpson (G3T) as a 3-year-old.

Imprimis (9) is as talented as anyone in this field but is questionable past 5 1/2 furlongs.

Archidust (11) is 2 for 2 since coming back from a layoff for new trainer Steve Asmussen. He had some trouble at the start when a rallying fourth in the Franklin-Simpson a year ago.

A — 3, 4, 6

B — 2, 9, 11, 12