Odd Mix of Preakness, Breeders' Cup Challenge Races

The first Saturday of October isn't normally associated with things like the NBA Finals and the Preakness Stakes (G1), but this is where we are in the COVID-19 era.

Normally the second jewel of the Triple Crown and run on the third Saturday in May, the Preakness climaxes the 2020 series in this topsy-turvy year. It is race 11 on an all-stakes card at Pimlico Race Course, and among six Breeders' Cup Challenge races to be run Saturday, offering the winner a fees-paid berth to the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) Nov. 7.

NBC will provide coverage from 4:30-6 p.m. ET.

The other "Win and You're In" races consist of the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1T) at Belmont Park and four stakes at Keeneland Race Course—the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2), First Lady Presented By UK Healthcare Stakes (G1T), Claiborne Breeders' Futurity Stakes (G1), and the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1T).

To enhance your sensory overload, there is a Cross Country Pick Five linking the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (G1T), First Lady, Belmont Derby, Breeders' Futurity, and Turf Mile.

George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) (Pim, race 10, 4:41 ET): Bonny South (5) is down in class and distance after finishing a clear second to heavily favored Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama Stakes (G1), and reunites with Florent Geroux, who was aboard for her win in the TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

Bonny South has a clear advantage figure-wise as well, but things are wide open among the 10 fillies set to oppose her.

The up-and-comer in the field is So Darn Hot (3), who showed flashes of late-running talent on turf and dirt at Gulfstream Park in her first two starts, before garnering a maiden victory by six lengths at Belmont in mid-June. She couldn't catch Landing Zone (10) in the slop at Delaware Park first time against winners off a 12-week layoff, but galloped out extremely well; I like her to turn the tables and jump up with her best effort yet.

Mizzen Beau (7) has price potential at 12-1 after spending the summer running three times over the all-weather surface at Woodbine Racetrack, capped by a decisive score in the $250,000 Bison City Stakes. Two dirt starts this year prior to that were a maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs and a clear second to subsequent Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Shedaresthedevil at Churchill Downs.

A - 5

B - 3, 7

Preakness (Pim, race 11, 5:36 ET): Bob Baffert has won the Preakness a record-equaling seven times, and he sends out the one to catch and beat in Authentic (9), who surprised many handicappers (this one included) by staying the trip wire to wire in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

It bears mention that Baffert's past five Kentucky Derby winners all came back to take the Preakness, and the fact Baffert was quoted as saying he wished there was the normal two-week turnaround because Authentic came out of that race so well is a positive sign. Two recent bullet workouts reinforce that point.

The other three who are single-digit odds on the morning line are Art Collector (3), Swiss Skydiver (4), and Thousand Words (5), and they all appear somewhat vulnerable.

Art Collector missed the Derby due to a minor foot issue, and will be making his first start since the Ellis Park Derby almost eight weeks ago. Other than Shared Sense, who won the Oklahoma Derby (G3) last Sunday, eight others behind him at Ellis Park that day have come back to finish off the board.

Swiss Skydiver has had an admirable campaign, but was outfinished by Art Collector the first time she faced males in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2). She was a geared-down winner of the Alabama five weeks after that, then was upended in the Kentucky Oaks just 20 days later. She's back in against the boys, and one wonders if she 's on the verge of going over the top since she has been running without a break since last fall.

Thousand Words flipped in the paddock before the Derby, and returns with blinkers on for what will be his first outing in over two months. When he's got his mind on running Thousand Words is very good, but I'm leery of how his form went south for two races in early spring, notably a dreadful performance in the Oaklawn Stakes, and he has to prove he can ship and keep his (stuff) together.

The backups are Mr. Big News (2), Pneumatic (10) and Liveyourbeastlife (11), all of which are on the improve.

Mr. Big News loomed menacingly with a big wide run on the far turn of the Derby, and ran on well for third in a breakthrough performance. His figures had been climbing slowly but surely prior to that, and he appeared to relish the added ground in Louisville.

Pneumatic is a talented "pneu shooter" (sorry) in the Preakness this year, after notching a decisive win in the Pegasus, followed by three progressively faster five-furlong works for Steve Asmussen. He's had only five starts and it's unlikely we've seen his best yet.

Liveyourbeastlife dropped back to last through the middle stages of the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), then rallied strongly to finish a close second. He's another who seems ready to level-up his game.

A - 9

B - 2, 10, 11

Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Kee, race 9, 5:24 ET): The 2021 Derby Watch begins in earnest with this 1 1/16-mile route that contains a handful of highly promising juveniles.

Not many babies can do what Essential Quality (4) did first time out. The Tapit  colt made a big run on the turn, got stopped cold in upper stretch and rebroke to win going away. The Godolphin homebred is reminiscent of Maxfield, who also won his debut under the twin spires last September before going on to win this race by better than five lengths.

Calibrate (7) withstood pace pressure to win going away first out at Saratoga Race Course, and has since turned in a trio of bullet works. He will try to get the jump on Upstriker (2) in the run to the first turn.

Super Stock (1) gained useful experience staying on for third in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) when stretched past 5 1/2 furlongs for the first time. He drew a cozy spot.

Founder (8) won at first asking in the mud despite racing greenly, and Chad Brown posts excellent numbers going sprint to route.

A - 4, 7

B - 1, 2, 8