Gosden Frets Over Enable's Arc Chances Due to Ground

Supporters of Enable will not like much of what they are about to read.

John Gosden believes the favorite for the Oct. 4 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) is too short in the betting. Even more worryingly, he believes that on grueling ground at ParisLongchamp, defeat is "a strong likelihood."

Should he be proved wrong, as he would love to be, Gosden will go down in the sport's annals as the first trainer ever to produce one horse to win three editions of the Arc.

Alongside stable jockey Frankie Dettori, he first triumphed with Golden Horn in 2015, yet while that colt was retired at 3, Enable has continued under her trainer's tutelage to age 6.

As the season has gone on, Gosden has repeated more than once that at an age when most top mares would be enjoying a more relaxed life at stud, Khalid Abdullah's homebred champion has found it harder to peak. That, however, is not what is worrying the champion trainer as he prepares to run Enable for what will surely be the last time.

"It's obviously disappointing when a race of this stature is run on what will be specialist ground," said Gosden. "The problem with this ground is she's a classy filly and it's hard to show your brilliance on a surface that is likely to turn it into a slog. It's the same for everyone, but she's a filly that ideally likes to run on the easy side of good ground. 

"It's not ideal, and for her to be even-money to win the race in such conditions is a bit absurd. They are backing her as if defeat is out of the question when I can assure you that defeat is a strong likelihood on this ground. It's not ground that plays to her strengths, and if someone handles it really well then good luck to them. I feel the ground has very much gone against her chances."

Those brutally honest words do not offer much encouragement to Enable's backers. More positively, Gosden is pleased with Enable's condition, so much so he is unconcerned about this year staying away from Longchamp—had he traveled to France, even updated quarantine restrictions for the sport's participants would have prevented him from attending next week's important Tattersalls yearling sales.

Gosden said: "I have a fantastic team over there, including two top traveling head lads and the grooms, as well as my son and assistant Thady. Obviously, I'm not going to be there this year, but me being there does not make them run any faster."

Enable was last year not quite fast enough to hold off Waldgeist, who emerged on top at the end of a contest played out in similar conditions to those that will prevail this season. That was Frankie Dettori's 31st Arc ride. He hopes for a much happier outcome to his 32nd.

"For the Arc I will be super excited and nervous," he said. "It's a great feeling. Horrible, but great. Even when you win, it's not a nice feeling for a while until it sinks in. Then it totally consumes you."

For what would be the seventh time, Dettori would dearly love to be consumed again.

Gosden High on Stradivarius but Going a Concern

Gosden believes Stradivarius will run a "mighty race" in the Arc, but only if the superstar stayer handles the testing conditions at Longchamp.

The 6-year-old, who won his third Gold Cup (G1) at Ascot on soft ground in June, was last seen finishing a close second to Anthony Van Dyck when dropping down to a 1 1/2 miles for the Qatar Prix Foy (G1).

Stradivarius is a general 13-2 second choice behind his stablemate Enable.

"He's had a perfect preparation," said Gosden. "He needed his first run of the season and then went and won the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup. I was also delighted with his run in the Prix Foy.

"It was a proper French trial, with a steady gallop before a sprint down the straight. He came out of that in great shape and has trained superbly ever since. The only caveat would be that the soft ground he won on at Ascot this year will be a bit different to this.

"Remember that Longchamp is beside the River Seine, which has an alluvial river bottom and the ground gets deep and holding. That's a bit different from running on the last section of the Ascot track.

"A trainer friend I spoke to who had runners at Saint-Cloud on Friday said it was the worst ground he had ever seen and the track is on a hill a mile and a half up the road from Longchamp.

"If Stradivarius handles the ground he'll run a mighty race. However, he's never raced on such ground, nor trained on it."

Owner Bjorn Nielsen, who had always hoped to run Stradivarius in the Arc, believes he has the speed to compete over this shorter trip.

"I'm just looking forward to it," said Nielsen. "This is one of the most prestigious races in the world and it's a privilege to have a horse capable of running. We'd like to think he has a good chance.

"He's taking on top horses, not least his stablemate, but he's shown up well over this trip and I don't think he has any problem with the pace of races run over that distance. He's handled soft ground before and hopefully the testing conditions could play to his strengths."

Field Drops to 11 After O'Brien Defects

With trainer Aidan O'Brien withdrawing his four runners due to feed contamination, a field of 11 is set to go postward for the Arc. Sottsass, In Swoop, Raabihah, Persian King, Way To Paris, Gold Trip, Deirdre, Chachnak, and Royal Julius complete the lineup.