Landing on Longshots in Keeneland's Saturday Stakes

The last five races in the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series will all be run this weekend at Belmont Park, beginning with four grade 1 stakes Oct. 10: the Champagne, Frizette, Flower Bowl, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The Sands Point Stakes (G2T) closes out the Saturday stakes action at Belmont, where there will be a mandatory payout in the Empire 6 that featured a $386,694 carryover going into Friday's racing.

Highlighting Saturday's program at Keeneland are the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented By Dixiana Farm (G1T) and the Hagyard Fayette Stakes (G2).

For those interested in the Cross Country Pick Five, the 50-cent wager begins on the Jersey Shore with the Monmouth Stakes (G3T) and continues through the Flower Bowl, Fayette, Sands Point and QE II.

Oddly enough, there are no grade 1 winners in this edition of the Gold Cup. Tacitus will be heavily favored over four opponents to break through with his first such triumph, after being defeated six times previously at that level, most recently when second at 3-5 in the Woodward Handicap (G1).

Steve Asmussen sends out the favorites in the 2-year-old stakes at Belmont, with the 3-for3 Jackie's Warrior listed at 3-5 in the Champagne, and Cantata at 9-5 in the Frizette on the strength of a runaway debut victory at Saratoga Race Course.

Flower Bowl (Bel, race 8, 4:14 ET): Nay Lady Nay (6) is the longest price among the Chad Brown-trained trio, but is preferred over Cambier Parc (1), who won the 2019 QE II, but was then sidelined for 11 months before returning to finish second at odds-on in the Canadian (G2T) behind the unheralded Rideforthecause. 

Nay Lady Nay improved to win her last two when stretched out to nine furlongs and is bred to stay this 1 1/4-mile trip.

My Sister Nat (2) gets a four-pound weight shift from Civil Union after being beaten a length by the latter in the Glens Falls Stakes (G2T), but is a habitual slow starter. Civil Union, transferred from Brown to Shug McGaughey at the turn of the year, has won three straight at 10 furlongs and longer.

A - 3, 6

B - 1, 2

Hagyard Fayette (Kee, race 8, 4:57 ET): The first two choices on the morning line, Mr Freeze (6) and Tax (8), obviously have their merits, but they are not exactly standouts in this competitive event.

Mr Freeze dueled up front and held for second in a stronger 2019 renewal of the Fayette behind Tom's d'Etat, but might've been carried along by a sloppy track that day. His best races have been delivered at a mile around one turn.

Tax is the only two-time winner at the 1 1/8-mile distance, but hasn't won since edging Tacitus in last year's Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and has been away since fading to fifth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in early May.

We're taking a couple of price shots with Title Ready (5) and Aurelius Maximus (10), who are each tabbed at 10-1 on the line.

Title Ready is a nose away from being 3 for 3 at Keeneland, makes his third start back from a layoff, and is a stretch-running type who will get a solid pace in front of him.

Aurelius Maximus was regarded highly enough to run in the 2018 Champagne right after a maiden win, finishing a respectable fourth, but was then sidelined for 13 months. He has won both starts this year coinciding with a stretch to two turns, and with Belmont winners Empire Maker  and A. P. Indy on either side of his pedigree, ought to relish the extra distance he gets here.

A - 5, 10

B - 6, 8

Queen Elizabeth (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): The three favorites—Harvey's Lil Goil (1), Sweet Melania (2) and Magic Attitude (4)—all look logical enough in the wake of sharp recent performances. It's fair to wonder, though, whether Sweet Melania wants to go nine furlongs, and whether Magic Attitude might regress three weeks after taking the 10-furlong Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) in her United States debut.

Hendy Woods (6) could be a sleeper. She had some traffic trouble finishing behind Harvey's Lil Goil in the Regret Stakes (G3T) first time out in more than three months. Since then, the homebred daughter of Uncle Mo  has won the Indiana Grand Stakes with a five-wide run, and run second to odds-on Sharing in the Edgewood Stakes Presented By Forcht Bank (G2T) after checking sharply in the early going.

A - 6

B - 1, 2, 4