Taking the Value Proposition on a Quiet Weekend

From an international perspective, the most important racing Oct. 17 takes place at Ascot Racecourse, where five grade 1/grade 2 stakes comprise QIPCO British Champions Day and could conceivably produce Breeders' Cup contenders from their respective divisions.

Three weeks out from the Breeders Cup, with all the Breeders' Cup Challenge races completed, the schedule is understandably on the light side here in the states, although the $200,000 Lexus Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland is eligible to yield someone with aspirations toward the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) on the same track.

Saturday's other notable stakes races in North American are also for the distaffers—the $100,000 Autumn Miss (G3T) for 3-year-old fillies on turf at Santa Anita Park; the $100,000 Glorious Song for juvenile fillies on the synthetic surface at Woodbine; and the $80,000 Floral Park for filly-and-mare turf sprinters at Belmont Park.

Lexus Raven Run (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): It looks like the three morning-line choices, Four Graces (2), Venetian Harbor (5) and Secret Keeper (10) could be destined for a donnybrook up front, which at first blush seems like it could lead to a meltdown through the seventh and final furlong.

It's difficult to envision how Venetian Harbor—the 7-5 favorite—can win, since she has never run a half-mile split that would enable her to keep pace with Four Graces and she has never passed any horses in the stretch.

Four Graces has handled pace pressure repeatedly while compiling a 4-1-0 record from five starts at the distance, the lone defeat coming last out in the Eight Belles Presented By Twinspires.com (G2), in which she outdueled Mundaye Call, who was razor sharp and coming off three straight wins.

Secret Keeper is positioned for a stalk-and-pounce trip from outside, and comes off a gutsy placing in the Torrey Pines (G3), when she outdueled a rival but was run down by Harvest Moon, who has now won four in a row after coming back to beat older in the Zenyatta (G2). The cutback from a mile should help this daughter of Into Mischief  in her second stakes try.

At a price, Reagan's Edge (6) rates a long look. The Competitive Edge  filly ran the streaking Frank's Rockette to a photo in the Victory Ride (G3), which was run in near-record time, and she was subsequently purchased by Lael Stable. She returned from a two-month freshening giving futile chase to Frank's Rockette once again in the Prioress (G2), and the latter is Breeders' Cup-bound after returning to beat older in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (G2).

A -- 2, 6

B -- 10

Autumn Miss (SA, race 9, 8:15 ET): To put it charitably, the sophomore filly turf ranks on the SoCal circuit are somewhat underwhelming. A snapshot of this fact occurred when Warren's Showtime (5) had a clear lead with a furlong remaining in the Del Mar Oaks (G1T) but was overhauled by Red Lark, who was 1 for 11 and eligible for first-level allowances, and California Kook, who was 27-1 with similarly uninspiring credentials.

Now, perhaps the cutback from nine furlongs will be the key for Warren's Showtime since all four of her grass victories have come at a flat mile, but she can be had.

The lean is toward the inside with Mind Out (1), Quiet Secretary (2) and Nasty (3), who are all likely to offer some value.

Mind Out had a useful sprint sharpener in the Unzip Me, rallying mildly behind seven-time winner Bulletproof One, and was good enough as a second-out 2-year-old to finish within a length of the more experienced Warren's Showtime.

Quiet Secretary has found her calling since stretched out to two turns, wiring $40,000 maidens and then setting a wicked pace against older starter allowance runners, holding to be a clear second, and galloping out in front. In both races, she broke from the far outside, but now gets a cozy draw as the controlling speed. The class rise may not mean much if everyone leaves her alone early.

Nasty blossomed when switched to turf at Indiana Grand Racing & Casino, winning back-to-back in maiden and allowance company, and doing so impressively enough to go favored last out in the listed Indiana Grand Stakes. She raced wide over a yielding course that day, and was forwardly placed for better than six furlongs before getting bumped while giving way. With sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s expected, Nasty will be back on terra firma in the Autumn Miss.

A -- 2, 3

B -- 1, 5

Floral Park (Bel, race 9, 4:47 ET): In sharp contrast, considerable rain was expected Oct. 16 on Long Island, so the turf at Belmont will very likely be something other than firm for this edition of the Floral Park, scheduled for six furlongs on the inner course.

There is another vulnerable-looking favorite here in the form of Mitchell Road (6), who has never sprinted in her life other than, for the very technically minded, a couple 7 1/2-furlong turf races around two turns. She is also susceptible to a bounce after getting outdueled through a long drive in the recent Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3T).

Price plays Bohemian Bourbon (1) and Xanthique (5) comprise the A-team.

Bohemian Bourbon was used too early forcing the pace in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint (G3T) last out. She prefers rate-and-finish tactics, and was a fast-closing third two back in the Royal North (G2T) at this trip.

Xanthique exits the One Dreamer, in which she was bottled up going down the dip at Kentucky Downs and ran on to finish willingly for fourth. She repeats a route-to-sprint move similar to what produced a win at Saratoga Race Course two back, and has run well repeatedly on turf labeled good or yielding.

I'llhandalthecash (3) and Lead Guitar (8) are the backups.

As evidenced by a maiden win last year and a score in the License Fee Stakes three back, I'llhandalthecash's best game is six furlongs on Belmont's inner course, and both of those wins were on good going.

Lead Guitar is 3 for 3 on firm turf in 2020 and would've been an "A" if not for the rainy forecast. She comes off a sharp win off a trainer change to George Weaver, and that was the second time from as many starts she has been victorious beneath Luis Saez.

A -- 1, 5

B -- 3, 8