Improbable Leads Baffert Trio in Breeders' Cup Classic

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert plans to send out the past two horses to reach the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) in this year's Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), but it's a third starter, Improbable , who could be favored as he enters off three consecutive grade 1 wins.

With six of the top eight horses in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top Thoroughbred Poll entered in this year's $6 million Classic, the lineup for the 1 1/4-mile test Nov. 7 at Keeneland is considered an especially loaded deck. And Baffert, looking for his fourth Classic score since 2014 and second at Keeneland, holds three of the aces.

Carrying the most momentum of the trio will be WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing's Improbable, who ended a three-race skid in June by winning the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and followed with scores on both coasts in the Whitney (G1) and Awesome Again (G1) stakes. It seems ancient history when Improbable, who won a grade 1 at age 2 and was sent off the favorite in last year's Kentucky Derby, didn't quite live up to expectations in 2019—winning just one of seven starts.

Video: Whitney S. (G1)

All that has changed as he's earned Equibase Speed Figures of 120 in his two most recent starts—the highest figures earned this season by any horse racing on dirt. Baffert said the City Zip colt, who was bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr., has put it all together at age 4.

"He always showed a lot of talent as a 3-year-old, but he wasn't really mentally mature, wasn't physically mature," Baffert said. "We always refer to him as a little Justify  because he's a beautiful mover and he has athleticism—the way he covers or goes over the ground and his mechanics."

While Improbable finished fourth in last year's Derby, Baffert also will send out the horse who reached the wire first in that 1 1/4-mile classic in Maximum Security , who is campaigned by his breeders, Gary and Mary West, as well as the Coolmore-affiliated owners of Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith. 

Maximum Security already has one of the strangest careers in racing history, rising from his debut in a maiden claiming race to win grade 1 races and a divisional championship at 3. But he also is the first horse in history to be disqualified from victory in the Derby because of interference. Of more concern, his initial trainer, Jason Servis, was indicted on federal charges related to doping.

The 4-year-old son of the Wests' 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner New Year's Day was moved to Baffert's barn after his Feb. 29 victory in the world's richest race, the Saudi Cup. The $20 million purse is being held up as Saudi officials observe developments in the federal case against Servis.

Baffert's three Classic wins have all come with 3-year-olds. He won in 2015 at Keeneland with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah , and he'll send out this year's Derby winner, Authentic, for owners Spendthrift Farm, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Stables, and Starlight Racing.

Authentic isn't the only 2020 Triple Crown race winner entered in the Classic. Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) winner Tiz the Law will look for his fourth grade 1 win of the season. The son of leading second-crop sire Constitution  also won this year's Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1). 

Jack Knowlton, the managing partner for owner Sackatoga Stable, loves that trainer Barclay Tagg has shipped to Keeneland early to prepare for the Classic.

"I'm in communication with Barclay if not every day, every other day, and he is just glowing in his description of how he's doing," Knowlton said. "For Barclay to take off out of New York for three weeks to be down there with him at Keeneland … it's a huge commitment, unprecedented in the 20-plus years I've been with him.

"I think he feels that this is an opportunity that he can't let pass by."

While Tiz the Law has made Keeneland his home, Kentucky-based Tom's d'Etat  and By My Standards look capable of scoring for the home team. Al Stall Jr., who knows something about knocking off a big horse as trainer of 2010 Classic winner Blame , has patiently handled 7-year-old Tom's d'Etat for owner G M B Racing throughout his career, and the son of Smart Strike rewarded him with four straight stakes wins to close 2019 and begin 2020. He'll enter the Classic off a 14-week break following his third-place finish in the Whitney.

Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards also has proven to be a top 4-year-old after showing promise at 3. Trained by Bret Calhoun, the son of two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents  has won three grade 2 stakes this year.

And then there is Juddmonte Farms' homebred Tacitus, who has placed in six grade 1 races but has never won at the highest level. He'll get another try for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, a two-time winner of the Classic. Rounding out the field are Woodward Handicap (G1) winner Global Campaign , grade 1 winner Higher Power , and grade 2-placed Title Ready.

Entries: Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

Keeneland, Saturday, November 07, 2020, Race 12

• Grade I
• 1 1/4m
• Dirt
• $6,000,000
• 3 yo's & up
• 5:18 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Tacitus (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	126	William I. Mott	20/1
2	2Tiz the Law (NY)	Manuel Franco	122	Barclay Tagg	3/1
3	3By My Standards (KY)	Gabriel Saez	126	W. Bret Calhoun	10/1
4	4Tom's d'Etat (KY)	Joel Rosario	126	Albert M. Stall, Jr.	6/1
5	5Title Ready (KY)	Corey J. Lanerie	126	Dallas Stewart	30/1
6	6Higher Power (KY)	Flavien Prat	126	John W. Sadler	20/1
7	7Global Campaign (KY)	Javier Castellano	126	Stanley M. Hough	20/1
8	8Improbable (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	126	Bob Baffert	5/2
9	9Authentic (KY)	John R. Velazquez	122	Bob Baffert	6/1
10	10Maximum Security (KY)	Luis Saez	126	Bob Baffert	7/2