Handicapping: Breeders' Cup Views, Strategy

Attention deficit disorder has kicked in as we breathlessly await election results and head into Breeders' Cup weekend. Here are some quick hits on the 14 races that comprise the Cup's 37th edition and the second iteration at Keeneland.

NBCSN has TV coverage of five 2-year-old races Nov. 6 from 2-5:30 ET before the nine BC events Nov. 7 air on NBCSN/NBC from 12-5:30 p.m.

In the interest of space, we'll keep it short and sweet. 

Friday

Juvenile Turf Sprint (Race 6, 2:30): Golden Pal (14) is proven on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean already, with the tactical speed to overcome his outside draw. Loved the way Cowan (5) finished in the Indian Summer Stakes over the course and trip last month, and he also finished really well at Kentucky Downs two back, improving with blinkers. After Five (9) and Second of July (13) will be rallying late.

A — 14

B — 5, 9, 13

Juvenile Turf Presented By Coolmore America (Race 7, 3:10): A typically wide-open affair with a 5-1 morning-line favorite in Mutasaabeq, who capitalized on a contested pace to win the Bourbon Stakes (G2T) from dead last, but we're not seeing a whole lot of speed in this matchup to set him up.

Public Sector(4) seeks to emulate Structor, who won this race in 2019 for Chad Brown also coming off maiden and Pilgrim to start his career. Public Sector actually led early in Pilgrim before being taken back off slow fractions.

New Mandate (2), Cadillac (5), and Battleground (9) figure best of the foreign contingent, with New Mandate proven at the distance and offering potential value. Cadillac is 2-for-2 on left-hand courses. Battleground is the first runner out of Keeneland's 2015 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)-winning mare Found.

Abarta (3), Mutasaabeq (6), Outadore (8) and Gretzky the Great (11) next in line forming the B-team for multi-race wagers.

A — 2, 4, 5, 9

B — 3, 6, 8, 11

Juvenile Fillies (race 8, 3:50): Leaning on Princess Noor (7) even though several have posted better preliminary figures—the key word being "preliminary" there. Liked the way she held her own in close quarters early and moved through between horses into the far turn last out.

Simply Ravishing (1), Dayoutoftheoffice (3), and Girl Daddy (5) are also unbeaten so far. Crazy Beautiful (6) has been favored all four starts and is 20-1 after back-to-back seconds in graded stakes.

A — 7

B — 1, 5

C — 6

Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 9, 4:30): Alda (3) is a granddaughter of Speightstown  from the same barn that brought us last year's winner, Sharing ($29.60). Alda might've been best when in the Natalma Stakes (G1T). 

Campanelle (10), 3-for-3 in three countries, has the speed to gain a good position from post 10.

Editor At Large (14) has trained with Public Sector (see Juvenile Turf). Brown has won five of this race's 12 runnings.

Plum Ali (4) would've been ranked higher except for Christophe Clement's 0-for-38 BC record.

Aunt Pearl (5) must be caught, responded well to win the JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (G2T) over the course, with third finisher coming back to win a stake at Belmont Park closing weekend.

A — 3, 10, 14

B — 4, 5

TVG Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Race 10, 5:15): Essential Quality (5) has shown speed and rating ability winning his first two starts, and continues to train well.

Jackie's Warrior (7) likely to be overbet off four blowout wins around one turn, and was loose on the lead in the last three. The colt, by Maclean's Music  out of a 19-time sprint winner, has already outrun his pedigree, but might still handle these at this early stage.

Likeable (4) Keepmeinind (6) and Sittin On Go (9) all share same forward-moving pattern as third-time starters coming off improved second starts followed up by improving workouts.

A — 5, 7

B — 4, 6, 9

Saturday

Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 4, 12:02): The Breeders' Cup Saturday sequence gets off to a blazing start with a showdown between Gamine (2) and Serengeti Empress (7), who dazzled at Saratoga Race Course Aug. 8, respectively, wiring the Longines Test Stakes (G1) and Ballerina Stakes (G1).

Gamine's seven furlongs in 1:20.83 was four-fifths of a second faster than Serengeti Empress' 1:21.63 clocking, and Gamine's Beyer Speed Figure (108) came up 10 points faster than Serengeti Empress (98). But when pace is factored into the equation, as it is in Timeform ratings, Serengeti Empress was credited with a figure of 127, while Gamine received a 120. That has to do with their respective pace lines—22.70, 45.14, 1:08.64 for Gamine versus 21.75, 43.74, 1:08.32 for Serengeti Empress.

You can also compare their respective Acorn (G1) pace splits, 22.48, 45.28, 1:09.33 for Gamine this year, and 21.89, 43.99, 1:08.03 for Serengeti Empress last year.

It seems likely Gamine will be behind another horse early for the first time in her life, which makes her a vunerable favorite first time facing older fillies and mares, and I'm tossing her at 7-5. Then again, I didn't think there was any way in the world Venetian Harbor (6) could make the top in the Lexus Raven Run (G2) and she was never headed, so go figure.

We'll take Serengeti Empress as the speed of the speed, but if she gets softened up early, things could open up for late runners such as Speech (1) and Bell's the One (9). Speech impressed winning the Central Bank Ashland (G1) over the track, then had a troubled go of it through the early stages of the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

A — 1, 7

B — 8, 9

Turf Sprint (Race 5, 12:39): There isn't a world of early speed in this overflow field, so perhaps Big Runnuer (1) can capitalize with a sharp get away from the rail. He's 3-for-3 in blinkers since coming back for his 5-year-old season, and an enticing 12-1 on the morning line.

Imprimis (3) could regress after two triple-digit figures at age 6, but has overcome trouble to win on this layout and has Irad Ortiz Jr. back aboard.

Leinster (7) holds the course record and gutted out a win in the Woodford Stakes Presented By TVG (G2T) prepping for this.

The mares Oleksandra (8) and Got Stormy (12) are the backups.

A — 1, 3, 7

B — 8, 12

Dirt Mile (Race 6, 1:18): Knicks Go (5) and Complexity  (10) emerge from victories that earned field-best figures, and we're going to hope at least one of them doesn't bounce coming back five weeks later.

Art Collector (1) missed the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) with a minor but ill-timed foot issue, then came up short as the second choice in the Preakness Stakes (G1). That was his first defeat in five starts for Tom Drury, and he is accorded a shot to rebound based on what he showed winning the Toyota Blue Grass (G2) on this track.

War of Will  (4) is a dual-surface grade 1 winner and should be primed after weakening late in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1T) after a freshening.

A — 5, 10

B — 1, 4

Maker's Mark Filly & Mare Turf (Race 7, 1:57): Sistercharlie (2), who cemented an Eclipse Award in winning this race in 2018, and Rushing Fall (6), a five-time graded stakes winner on Keeneland turf, have trained in tandem for their final start. Chad Brown, who entered two others in here as well, feels Sistercharlie is returning to top form after two disappointing thirds at Saratoga, although she was pace-compromised behind Rushing Fall in the Diana stakes (G1T).

Three classy Europeans, all getting first-time Lasix, form the B-team: Peaceful (3), Terebellum (7), and Audarya (11).

A — 2, 6

B — 3, 7, 11

Sprint (Race 8, 2:36): There wasn't an overwhelming amount of early speed to begin with, but removing morning-line favorite Vekoma  from the equation also removes outside pressure on Yaupon (10), who looks as if he might be the successor to Mitole , who was crowned champion sprinter of 2019 after winning this race for the same connections.

Yaupon projects to stalk outside the steadily-improving filly Frank's Rockette (6) and test that one turning for home.

Off-the-pace threats are C Z Rocket (2), 5-for-5 for Peter Miller but potentially a bounce candidate after several all-out efforts; Whitmore (7), who makes his fourth Sprint appearance; and Diamond Oops (11), who has won four of his last five sprints along with a second behind Imperial Hint  in the track record-setting Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) last year.

A — 6, 10

B — 2, 7, 11

Mile (Race 9, 3:15): Conventional wisdom favors inside posts in two-turn turf miles, but we're thinking outside the box and keying mostly on horses breaking from the six outermost stalls.

Halladay (10) and Factor This (13) look like they have it to themselves upfront, and they should be able to cross over and clear without much trouble. Either is capable of winning if the pace is reasonable.

Kameko (2) should be nicely suited to firm going based on several fine performances in England and could wind up saving ground as the pocket rocket.

One Master (9) was a close fifth (without Lasix) in this race two years ago, has maintained good form this season and goes well on firm ground. He adds Lasix this time around

Ivar (11) comes off a career-best effort to win the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1T) over the course. 

Defending Mile winner Uni (12) and Shadwell Turf Mile runner-up Raging Bull will be rallying late for Brown. An interesting thing about Uni is that she fires her best shots in big fields, having won the last three times she was part of a 13-horse field, all in grade 1s and always at odds of 3-1 or better.

A — 2, 10, 13

B — 9, 11, 12, 14

Longines Distaff (Race 10, 3:54): Monomoy Girl (10) ran through a championship campaign in 2018 that included wins in the  Kentucky Oaks and the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) from the extreme outside posts, so breaking from post 10 is of little concern as she looks to stay perfect after three wins in 2020.

I do think Dunbar Road (3) can fall through the cracks a bit, and view her effort chasing a fast pace in the Beldame Stakes (G2) as a classic "bid, hung" line that can have her peaking second time back from a layoff.

I thought Swiss Skydiver (5) would bounce to the moon in the Preakness, but she held on with uncommon valor to win it. There's an adage that says, "If one big effort doesn't make a horse regress, two will," and we'll have to see if she's still got something in the tank for her tenth start of the year.

Point of Honor (7) has hit the board in all five grade 1s and sooner or later she will break thru.

A — 3, 10

B — 5, 7

Longines Turf (Race 11, 4:33): Looking for some luck of the Irish here with Ireland-bred distaffers Magical (2) and Tarnawa (3).

Magical ran the mighty Enable to a close decision when nine lengths clear for second in the 2018 Turf, and faces no such rival this time. However, Tarnawa has swept her three starts at age 4 on a variety of going. She is a formidable foe whose last three 12-furlong races all resulted in group wins, and those came on ground rated firm or good.

Channel Maker (9) has never been better and has to be given some kind of chance to steal this on the lead.

Mogul (10) comes off a highly-rated win in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (G1T) over In Swoop, who returned to run second by a neck in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1T).

A — 2, 3

B — 9, 10

Classic (Race 12, 5:18): Tiz the Law (2) came up short against Authentic (9) in the Kentucky Derby, but that was the first time he had ever run back with just four weeks between starts and came on the heels of a supersonic effort in the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1). His connections wisely bypassed the Preakness and return with a freshened horse who will be very dangerous if Manny Franco is able to work his way outside from the two-hole.

Improbable  (8) has reached his full potential taking three consecutive grade 1 stakes coast to coast but is always a candidate to pitch a fit in or around the gate.

Tom's d'Etat  (4) has been freshened up since the Whitney Stakes (G1) when he was eliminated by a bad stumble at the start. As with Tiz the Law, he is a potential bounce-rebound proposition, and anything resembling his win in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) two back puts him in the thick of things.

Maximum Security  (10) is reportedly training better now than he has all year. He was no match for Improbable in the Awesome Again (G1) but dominated the 1 1/4-mile TVG Pacific Classic (G1) five weeks prior.

A — 2, 8

B — 4, 8, 9, 10