On Racing: The Best Story of the Breeders' Cup

Bill Nack, who won a whole stable full of writing Eclipse Awards, once was asked for whom he was rooting in a particular marquee race. His reply was, "The best story." Movie critics, when required to make predictions for Academy Awards and BAFTAs, are inclined to split their opinions between who "should win" and who "will win." In the spirit of both sly dodges, join me with one turf writer's shallow dive into the 14 Breeders' Cup races that will unfold Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland, based on the best stories, the expected winners, and the horses worth the play.

There is no evidence that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2T) was invented for the benefit of trainer Wesley Ward, but with four in the race he is expected to win his second straight with Golden Pal, the winner of the Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. The best story, by far, would be a victory by England's Mighty Gurkha and the scene-stealing jockey Hollie Doyle. But the play will be the Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, who was gaining ground at the end of the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland as if he was growing up fast.

For my money, the best story to come out of the Juvenile Turf Presented by Coolmore America (G1T) would be a victory by Breeders' Cup rookie Umberto Rispoli aboard Abarta, who was second in the Bourbon Stakes (G2T) on the course. Rispoli is the kind of rising star the North American game should be banking on, although the horse expected to win will be Battleground from (yawn) trainer Aidan O'Brien. My real money will be backing New Mandate, whose form is hard to fault and whose rider, Frankie Dettori, is Rispoli's idol.

After watching Dennis' Moment go to his nose at the Breeders' Cup last year and Thousand Words flip himself out of this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), the Albaugh family operation deserves a clean shot at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) with Girl Daddy. That would be an easy story to write, especially in the face of the expected winner, Princess Noor, who inspired the rest of the California delegation to stay home. Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1) winner Simply Ravishing has been every bit as impressive, though, so let's go with her home-court advantage.

Aunt Pearl could be favored slightly over Campanelle in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T), and that's to be expected. The tale of the race, however, leads to Christophe Clement, whose 38 starters without a winner leads the Breeders' Cup frustration parade among trainers. With the unbeaten Plum Ali, the winner of the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2T), Clement not only has the best story but also this player's hard cash.

Jackie's Warrior is expected to win the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1), and only a fool would bet against him, right? So why do I think dazzling Keeneland allowance winner Next will just go to the lead and forget to stop? As for a story horse, let the record show that, being a fan of the New Radicals, I am thankful for a horse named Dreamer's Disease.

Saturday dawns with the duel between Gamine and Serengeti Empress in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). And while I would love to write about how James Graham won his first Breeders' Cup race at age 41 aboard Sconsin with a final swoop past the leaders, there is no tougher horse to beat at seven furlongs these days than 'Serengeti.' I won't let her win without me.

Can trainer Peter Miller snag an unprecedented fourth straight Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T)? That would be a pretty good story. But he's up against it with the honest club fighter Texas Wedge, and everyone will be expecting Leinster to walk his Keeneland beat or Got Stormy to finish with another furious furlong. Oleksandra's got one of those in her arsenal as well, she's beaten the boys, and she'll be a much better price.

Knicks Go, second in the 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), has come back from obscurity to be a fascinating story with a chance in the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). The smart money will be on Complexity , a one-turn specialist in a two-turn race, but mine will be on Mr. Money himself. He picked his last race to return to solid form, and he can name-drop his sire, two-time Dirt Mile winner Goldencents .

Sentimentalists who love a good story will be pulling for Canada's darling, Starship Jubilee, in the Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T), while at the same time shoving it through the windows on Rushing Fall. She won the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T) in 2017 and is on a perfect roll this year. But while those two deal with each other, here comes Terebellum, who beat all but one of the colts in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1T) and has Dettori and trainer John Gosden in her corner. It's almost unfair.

Old pro Whitmore is always the best story whenever he shows up. A score by him in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) writes itself. But the opposition is salty, led by unbeaten Yaupon and the invigorated ex-claimer C Z Rocket. Most of the players will expect one of them to take the prize, but they should not be shocked when Collusion Illusion wins with the same kick that took the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1).

The best story in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (G1T) is defending winner Uni, while expectations will be high for Ivar to run back to his Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1T). Beyond those two, it's a scramble. When the Euros backed up a lorry and unloaded every worthy runner they could find, including classic winners Kameko and Siskin, out popped Safe Voyage, a 7-year-old Irish battler making his 30th start. He’s also been in the best form of his career on some challenging European courses. Just wait until he gets a taste of the nice, dry ground in Kentucky.

From the moment Midnight Bisou was retired, Monomoy Girl was conceded the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Then along came Swiss Skydiver, who beat Authentic in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and could turn out to be the best story of the year. But if I told you there's a mare in here who missed winning four consecutive grade 1 events this year by a head, a neck, a half, and three-quarters, would you throw her into the mix? I bet you would. Her name is Ollie's Candy.

Magical will be playing the part of Enable in this year's Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T), with stablemate Mogul more than just a wingman. I will be investing in Tarnawa, Ireland's filly of the moment and trainer Dermot Weld's best shot at a Cup win after 16 frustrations. I must insist, however, that the most compelling story belongs to United, who nearly cracked the code last year. His name alone in these troubled times is enough to inspire a play.

Finally, there is the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which is expected to be won by one of the three smart colts trained by Bob Baffert—Authentic, Improbable , or Maximum Security . Pick 'em. The 7-year-old Tom's d'Etat  has the class to engineer a fairy-tale ending, and he's fresh. But so is Tiz the Law, a grandson of two-time Classic winner Tiznow  trained to the minute by a team intent on proving he's the Horse of a Very Strange Year.