Handicapping: Views on Churchill, Aqueduct, Del Mar

In addition to being one of the last stakes of the season restricted to 3-year-old fillies, the Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2T) at Churchill Downs shakes out as the only graded stakes to be run in North America Nov. 14. That's not to say handicappers will lack for Saturday action, though, as there are a half-dozen $100,000 events scattered about—two each at Aqueduct Racetrack and Laurel Park, as well as the Desi Arnaz Stakes at Del Mar and the South Ocean Stakes at Woodbine.

Naturally, we have some opinions. All times Eastern.

Mrs. Revere (CD, race 10, 5:36): The forecast calls for cloudy skies and a high temperature approaching 60 degrees, which is all you can ask of a mid-November afternoon in Kentucky. The prospect of firm footing could bode well for Pass the Plate (6), who caught yielding turf when off the board behind Hendy Woods (1) in the Indiana Grand Stakes when last seen on the grass in August. Pass the Plate has a solid finishing kick, and it's well worth noting that her best race last fall, as well as her two best this year, came on this course.

Hendy Woods handles any ground and is down in class and distance—along with an encouraging rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione—after getting beat just over three lengths in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented By Dixiana (G1T) at nine furlongs.

The top four from the Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (G3T) are back, headed by Stunning Sky (3) and Princess Grace (4), the 1-2 finishers. The latter seemingly had the race won as she drew clear with an eighth of a mile remaining, perhaps moving a tad early in her initial stakes try, and picks up Florent Geroux. The worrisome thing about Stunning Sky and Princess Grace is that they weren't far in front of third-place How Ironic (5), who was nearly 30-1 and had gone almost a year between her maiden and first-level allowance wins.

A — 1, 6

B — 3, 4

Notebook (Aqu, race 7, 2:45): This sprint for 2-year-old New York-breds looks wide open, and I'm not sold on either of the first two morning-line choices, Blue Gator (7) and Eagle Orb (4).

Blue Gator could fall into the kind of outside stalking trip that he employed to win the rich New York Breeders' Futurity, but he lugged in after reaching the front, and that race came in the slop in a situation where the heavy favorite, Thin White Duke, got left at the gate. Eagle Orb, meanwhile, has already lost twice as the public choice in similar company.

We're shooting for some fireworks with Market Alert (2) and Horn of Plenty (5). Market Alert rushed up after a slow start when blinkers came on for the Funny Cide and faded late to fourth. He has had a break since then and two recent bullet workouts (best-of-99 and best-of-44) suggest he may be primed for a forward move. Horn of Plenty waited behind the leaders approaching the stretch, got yanked off the rail a furlong out, swapped back to his left lead as a result, and still managed to win in a very promising debut outing at Belmont Park; trainer Rob Atras gets repeat winners over 30 percent of the time.

A — 2, 5

B — 4, 7

Artie Schiller (Aqu, race 9, 3:47): We're against the Chad Brown-trained duo of Delaware (4) and Valid Point (9), which should serve to knock one of them right into the winner's circle. The former has disappointed in each of three starts in the United States, while the latter has been eighth in three starts this year, looking nothing like the horse that took the Secretariat Stakes (G1T) in 2019.

Rinaldi (2) is batting .500 from eight starts and figures to back down the pace with an advantageous draw near the inside. He is 3-for-3 when able to get the early lead, including a decision over morning-line favorite and six-time stakes winner Therapist (10) in the West Point two starts back.

Hawkish (3) and Hembree (5) are in the mix. It may pay to draw a line through Hawkish's last race, which came over the undulating layout at Kentucky Downs with blinkers on; the hood is being removed from the grade 2 winner, who was victorious in his only previous attempt at the Big A. Hembree is hard to fully trust after 14 straight defeats and a 2-8-1 slate from 18 starts at Saturday's mile distance, but his typical efforts, many of them in graded stakes, stack up well.

A — 2, 5

B — 3, 10

Desi Arnaz (Dmr. Race 8, 7:00): Private Mission (2) and Astute (7), purchased respectively as yearlings for $750,000 and $425,000, went favored for their October unveilings and did not disappoint. Private Mission, one of three juvenile fillies in the field trained by Bob Baffert, was a stalk-and-pounce winner with something left at even money, and notably, that effort came at Saturday's 6 1/2 furlongs. Astute wired a turf sprint at 7-10, and the daughter of Speightstown  should handle the surface switch, as the half sister to Classic Point won graded stakes from seven furlongs to a mile on dirt.

Canoodling (3) and Miss Costa Rica (6) are both double-digit odds on the morning line and rate a chance.

Canoodling is a turf-to-dirt turnback after looming in midstretch before outfinished in the one-mile Surfer Girl. The Pioneerof the Nile filly is bred both sides for dirt.

Miss Costa Rica is back sprinting after running on to regain third in the Chandelier Stakes (G2), and it could be noteworthy that Flavien Prat forsakes Anoakia runner-up Queengol (5) to keep the mount.

A — 2, 7

B — 3, 6