Handicapping: Opinions on Gulfstream Park Stakes

There are seven stakes worth $100,000 or more on the Louisiana Champions Day card at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and the $100,000 Soviet Problem Stakes is on tap at Los Alamitos Race Course, but the center of the racing universe Saturday, December 12 revolves around Gulfstream Park which cards its first graded stakes of the winter meet.

In fact, all four graded stakes in the United States this Saturday will be run at the South Florida track, topped by the Harlan's Holiday Stakes (G3) and Fort Lauderdale Stakes (G2T), which serve as key local preps for the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1)and $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf  Invitational Stakes (G1T) Jan. 23, respectively.

Preceding those two races are the Rampart Stakes (G3) and Sugar Swirl Stakes(G3) for fillies and mares on the main track, and the $75,000 My Charmer Stakes for turf distaffers.

With a field of six, the Rampart is positioned early on the card as race 4. The Sugar Swirl also drew just six and it kicks off the Rainbow Pick 6. The first three legs of the late pick four are the My Charmer, Harlan's Holiday, and Fort Lauderdale, which, if you're apprehensive about the 12-horse maiden claimer on turf that closes it out, can be approached as a pick three.

Be advised that for years post times at Gulfstream were regarded as just a suggestion, but a new policy instituted at the start of the meet has them loading on or very close to schedule.

My Charmer (GP, race 8, 3:38 ET): Betting against/around Chad Brown-trained fillies in turf stakes is risky business, but morning-line favorite Lady Lawyer (5) has never been this far and had everything her own way wiring a one-mile allowance most recently.

Second choice Tuned (4) packs a good finishing kick (under 28 seconds for the last five-sixteenths of a mile two back), but the filly out of 2012 champion turf mare Zagora is making her stakes debut and comes from the clouds, which can be a difficult thing to do over the local course.

I could see Art of Almost (2) making some noise here for Roger Attfield, who sent out Elizabeth Way to win a grade 3 turf stakes here last winter. Art of Almost's last two grass races were grade 2s, so the class drop will help.

The keys, though, will be Our Bay B Ruth (3) and Madita (6), who finished a neck apart when in the money in the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs.

Our Bay B Ruth has a versatile running style and captured the Tropical Park Oaks here last December before going to the shelf. She returned in July chasing 2019 My Charmer winner Mitchell Road in the Ellis Park Turf Stakes, and later that same month led to the final strides before being nailed by Valiance, who has since won the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1) and run second in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

Madita faltered as the favorite in the HBPA Stakes through a driving rain on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs last out, which should serve to boost her price.

A — 3, 6

B — 2, 4, 5

Harlan's Holiday (GP, race 9, 4:09 ET): It's understandable that some may shy away from 2-1 choice Tax (1). After all, his last win was the 2019 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and he was off the board in both starts earlier in 2020. I'm taking a bullish view the first time back since fading in the May 2 Oaklawn Handicap (G2), due to the fact he has run big off the bench three times previously for trainer Danny Gargan, who excels with long layoff types overall. Bullet works on turf and dirt in November indicate he'll fire fresh again.

The other key is Phat Man (2), who was hopelessly wide and flattened out the first time back from a layoff in the Lafayette, out of which runner-up finisher True Timber returned to upset the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). Phat Man ran giant in all three starts at Gulfstream last winter, beginning with a second in this race at 28-1 odds.

I'm confident enough that one or both of the keys can run down Tatweej (7), who is up in class and distance after three straight wins over the track through summer and early fall. The lone backup, likely at a fat price, is Identifier (3), who came from a dozen lengths down to win the Hal's Hope Stakes (G3) at 60-1 here back in March.

A — 1, 2

B — 3

Fort Lauderdale (GP, race 10, 4:40 ET): Both of Todd Pletcher's horses, Largent (6) and Halladay (10) are stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in a terrific betting race where contenders such as Channel Cat (5), Tide of the Sea (7) and Spooky Channel (8) are cutting back from longer races.

Halladay is perfect from three starts on turf at Gulfstream, but aside from an outside draw, his main problem is the presence of Factor This (9), who chased after him to the stretch of the Fanduel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PJDF (G1T). Factor This is a grade 2 winner over three different courses this year, and 3-1-0 from five starts at this distance, and he is okay with pace pressure, whereas Halladay wants to control things up front.

I'll forsake Halladay as the second choice given the obstacles he faces but will take a half-full view on Largent, though it's doubtful you'll see 20-1 morning-line price hold on a Pletcher runner who is 3-1-0 from four local outings and figures to sit a good trip off the speed. Largent hasn't been out since early fall, which is a plus since he has posted blowout victories off workouts here each of the last two winters.

Channel Cat, formerly with Pletcher but now returning from a layoff for Jack Sisterson, was a close third as the favorite in last year's Fort Lauderdale despite a lack of pace. The slow fractions in the 2019 edition didn't help Spooky Channel, either, but he came out of that race to take the William L. McKnight Stakes (G3T). As was the case last winter he is returning from a layoff, so if nothing else keep tabs on him for later at the meet.

Along with Factor This, who could possibly be over the top after a long campaign, we're keying on Breaking the Rules (4) at 8-1 on the line and coming off a detrimental setup prompting the pace in the Knickerbocker Stakes (G2T) and fading to fourth. This Phipps Stable homebred by War Front  prefers rate-and-finish tactics and narrowly missed in the 2019 Canadian Turf Stakes (G3T) on this layout. He appears to be cycling back around to a peak effort numbers-wise and picks up Edgard Zayas, who rides this turf course as well as anyone.

A — 4, 9

B — 5, 6, 8