Maiden Watch Year in Review

Each week BloodHorse attempts to predict which maiden runners will go on to be successful at the graded level, featuring maiden winners from the previous week that meet certain criteria, which focuses on the immediate family and factors known for producing such runners.

The Maiden Watch criteria consists of runners who have not had more than five starts and are either out of a graded stakes winner or a graded stakes producer, or those that brought more than $500,000 in the sales ring. Statistics from past years show that graded stakes winners rarely fail to win in their first five starts. Graded stakes performers and proven producers, which are more likely to produce successful offspring, are used as criteria to narrow the pool of horses that are considered. And lastly, high sale prices indicate owners and agents have analyzed the horse and they believe it will provide a return on their investment.

In 2020, Maiden Watch identified approximately 175 horses that met the criteria from which 30% performed in graded company. Of those, 15 became graded stakes winners, 13 were graded stakes-placed, and 24 others ran at the graded level without placing.

Of the 52 total graded performers, 30 entered a grade 1 race, with 10 placing and six winning at the top level. The two newest members, Charlatan and Duopoly, earned their grade 1 status Dec. 26.

Bob Baffert-trained Charlatan kicked off his racing career as a 3-year-old, and left fans wanting to see more after his Feb. 16 debut, which had some comparing him to Triple Crown winner Justify . In that first start at Santa Anita Park, he easily trounced a small field and earned a Equibase Speed Figure of 102; undefeated Justify had earned a 103 in his February 2018 debut.

But this past year has been anything but typical, with the beginning of the Road to the Kentucky Derby muddled by track cancellations and stakes postponements. Charlatan returned to win a March 14 allowance optional claiming race by 10 1/4 lengths, then won a division of the May 2 Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park by six lengths, but was disqualified from that grade 1 victory after testing positive for lidocaine.

Chips in his ankle discovered after the race derailed Triple Crown hopes, even with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) moved to September. But the Speightstown  colt returned to form in Saturday's Runhappy Malibu Stakes (G1), winning by 4 1/2 lengths.

Bred by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, Charlatan is the second foal out of the grade 2-winning Quiet American mare Authenticity, who placed in four grade 1 tests in 2013, including the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

Trainer Chad Brown brought turf runner Duopoly up through the ranks for owner Klaravich Stables. The daughter of Animal Kingdom also began racing at 3, winning her second start at Monmouth Park by five lengths. She returned to earn a victory at Saratoga Race Course before trying graded company at Keeneland, where she finished fifth in the Pin Oak Valley View Stakes (G3T).

Duopoly then won the Winter Memories Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack before making her grand entrance to top-level racing in Saturday's American Oaks (G1T) at Santa Anita where she defeated the likes of grade 1 winner Sharing.

Bred by Jamm Limited, Duopoly is out of the Irish-bred grade 3 winner Justaroundmidnight, by Danehill Dancer.

This year's rearranged Triple Crown consisted of horses that began racing in 2019 and six were identified by Maiden Watch last year: Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) winner and Derby runner-up Tiz the Law , Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner and Derby fourth-place finisher Honor A. P. , grade 1-placed and Derby seventh Enforceable, Derby and Belmont Stakes runner Sole Volante, Belmont runner-up Dr Post, and grade 2 winner and Preakness Stakes (G1) runner Thousand Words. Derby contender Money Moves, a $975,000 2-year-old buy, began with a debut score Feb. 15 at Gulfstream Park.

Eleven Maiden Watch horses that won their first start in 2020 also participated in this year's Breeders' Cup, with Baffert's charge Gamine the only one to win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Hot Rod Charlie, a half brother to champion sprinter Mitole  trained by Doug O'Neill, placed second in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1), and Albaugh Family Stables' $500,000 yearling purchase Girl Daddy, trained by Dale Romans, placed third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

There's much more to come from this group of horses should they return to the track next year. Aside from the obvious, such as Baffert's Uncle Chuck, a half brother to graded stakes winner Kentuckian and sire Maclean's Music , and grade 1-placed Crystal Ball, there are a few more gems who have not yet fired.

There's John Oxley's Beautiful Memories, a Hard Spun  half sister to group 2 winner Kimbear who trainer Mark Casse has been very high on since her 10-length debut score; Champagne Stakes (G1) third-placed Midnight Bourbon, a Tiznow half brother to grade 1 winner Girvin  and graded stakes winner Cocked and Loaded; two-time runner Navratilova, who is out of grade 1 winner Centre Court; and American Pharoah Stakes (G1) fourth-placed Waspirant, who is out of the grade 1-winning mare Life Is Sweet.

The first five finishers in Woodbine's Natalma Stakes (G1T) were identified by Maiden Watch in 2020: Lady Speightspeare, Alda, Seasons, Dreaming of Drew, and Sleek Lynx. Alda also participated in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T), while Dreaming of Drew returned to win a minor stakes at Woodbine.

Should the likes of dual grade 3 winner Four Graces, a half sister to graded stakes winner McCraken , or undefeated Malathaat, a daughter of Curlin  and grade 1 winner Dreaming of Julia who last won the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, return to the track they will undoubtedly be looking to grade 1 company in the future.

Others to keep an eye out for should they return in 2021 include: Creed, a $650,000 yearling who raced three times for Shug McGaughey, finishing second in his April debut at Tampa Bay Downs and then winning his next two starts at Belmont Park by a combined nine lengths; the stakes-placed, $610,000 yearling buy Tarantino, who won two of his three starts for trainer Rodolphe Brisset; Mandaloun, a son of Into Mischief  and group 2 winner Brooch who won his debut in October and returned Nov. 28 to win at Churchill Downs; and Scat Daddy's half sister Lovestruck, who is 2-for-2 after winning the Nov. 29 Tepin Stakes on the turf at Aqueduct.