Are the Favorites Vulnerable in Tampa Bay Derby?

Ocean Knight (above) won the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Jan. 31 at Tampa Bay Downs. He figures to be a strong contender in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, but there is another candidate who looks primed for an upset. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase
The 35th running of the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby offers all-important Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series points. Perhaps more importantly, the outcome of the race could give us a strong early favorite on the path to the first Saturday in May where there has been none to date. Ocean Knight probably will be the public choice in the race based on his 2-for-2 record and the fact he won the local prep race, the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, on Jan. 31. Divining Rod was a neck shy of victory in that race after leading late and is out to turn the tables on Ocean Knight. Impressive in victory last month, Danzig Moon will attempt to step up his game to graded stakes level. Souper Colossal won the Sapling Stakes last summer before a poor effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he won his three-year-old debut last month and might be on the improve. Last but not least, many eyes will be on Carpe Diem, who returns off a four-month layoff while making his three-year-old debut. While perhaps not ready to win at this distance off a layoff, a good showing might mean Carpe Diem has recaptured the form that saw him win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland Race Course.
Danzig Moon made his debut in a sprint at Keeneland at the start of October, finishing fourth of nine and earning an 81 Equibase Speed Figure. Stretched out to a mile for his second career start just three weeks later, Danzig Moon improved nicely to finish second with a 93 figure. He then was given some time off to mature. Returning for his three-year-old debut last month, Danzig Moon won handily by 4 3/4 lengths in a field of 12, earning a 95 speed figure. Jockey Julien Leparoux rode Danzig Moon for the first time in that victory last month and will ride him again on Saturday. With it appearing very likely the colt could take another step forward in his second start of the year, Danzig Moon has a good chance to run well enough to post the upset win in this year’s Tampa Bay Derby.
Ocean Knight has done nothing wrong in winning his two career starts. Last December, he won a sprint with a very strong 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Seven weeks later, he stepped up nicely to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a lower figure, 102, but the win was his first try around two turns. In the Sam F. Davis, Ocean Knight showed a lot of maturity and attitude in wearing down the leader in the final strides. Ocean Knight should improve off that effort both because this will be his second start off a layoff and second attempt around two turns. Ocean Knight figures to be worthy of the public favoritism bestowed upon him and keep his perfect record intact.
Divining Rod nearly pulled off the upset in the Sam F. Davis at odds of 28-to-1. Running in a two-turn race on dirt for the first time, Divining Rod took the lead shortly after the start and held a narrow advantage until the final strides when Ocean Knight beat him by a neck in the photo finish. Getting the ground-saving rail for the Tampa Bay Derby may allow Divining Rod an easy lead from the start, and coming off a career-best 102 figure effort, he could be in the thick of the action at the finish line once more.
Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career, first last September in a sprint with an 88 figure and then impressively winning the Breeders’ Futurity, run at Keeneland at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby, with a 94 figure. Next seen one month later in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Carpe Diem was no match for winner Texas Red but was very game in passing the rest of the field to take second by a nose, earning a 96 figure. The horse he beat for second in that race was Upstart, recent winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (disqualified to second for interference). There’s no question Carpe Diem has the ability and class to compete at this level, but there has to be a question of whether he can compete at this level running 1 1/16 miles following four months off when others in here have run as well as he has and much more recently. As such, I’m taking a stand against Carpe Diem as a contender to win this race.
CARPE DIEM

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures): Ami’s Flatter (93), Great Stuff (98), Moonlight Bandit (89), My Johnny Be Good (94) and Souper Colossal (93).
Contenders to win (in preference order)
Danzig Moon
Ocean Knight
Divining Rod
$350,000 Tampa Bay DerbySaturday, Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, 5:23 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

1

Divining Rod

Luis Garcia

Arnaud Delacour

Lael Stables

2

Ocean Knight

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Kiaran McLaughlin

Stonestreet Stables

3

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Stonestreet Stables and WinStar Farm

4

Ami's Flatter

Luis Contreras

Josie Carroll

Ivan Dalos

5

My Johnny Be Good

Antonio Gallardo

Eoin Harty

Casner Racing

6

Souper Colossal

Joel Rosario

Eddie Plesa Jr.

Live Oak Plantation

7

Great Stuff

Leandro Goncalves

Ian Wilkes

A. Stevens Miles Jr.

8

Moonlight Bandit

Jose Lezcano

Mark Casse

John C. Oxley

9

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John C. Oxley