Handicapping: Three Grade 3 Turf Races in Spotlight

A trio of grade 3s highlight the stakes offerings for horseplayers Jan. 9.

At Gulfstream Park, the Tropical Turf Stakes (G3T) is the penultimate leg of a must-pay Rainbow 6 that featured a carryover pool of $985,824 going into Jan. 8.

At Santa Anita Park, the long and short of it are the 1 1/16-mile La Canada Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares on the main track, and the six-furlong Las Cienegas Stakes (G3T) for female sprinters that begins from a newly-constructed turf chute.

So let's dive in.

Tropical Turf (GP, race 10, 4:49 ET): This one-mile grass race came up exceptionally strong, as seven of the nine entrants are graded-stakes winners including defending titlist Tusk (7), who figures as an outsider second time back from a long layoff.

Indeed, extended absences are a theme here: Admission Office (1) hasn't been out since taking the Louisville Stakes (G3T) in June. Ride a Comet (3) vanished for two years before returning to win a couple of sprints on Woodbine's synthetic surface in the fall. Frostmourne (5) was gone for over a year, returned to run fourth at 4-5 odds at Gulfstream last winter, and then took off another 11 months before returning to win an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs in early November.

Note: Analyze It (6) will scratch as a result of a quarter crack, trainer Chad Brown told BloodHorse on Friday.

There are some additional issues with the first three morning-line choices: Admission Office is a deep closer who is best at longer distances. Frostmourne got an easy lead and earned a big figure in his comeback win, but he is now 7 and seems unlikely to reach that level again in a tougher spot with more pace pressure. 

It feels like there will be some value attached to Casa Creed (2) and the aforementioned Ride a Comet.

Casa Creed was a stakes winner on this turf course and a grade 2 winner in 2019, and although he was blanked from five outings last year, he kept some tough company, particularly through the second half of the year when he ran in three consecutive grade 1s climaxed by a 12th in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (G1T). He has had two months to freshen up and was a good third in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1T) with similar spacing between starts last summer.

Ride a Comet beat the likes of 26-time winner Pink Lloyd in the Kennedy Road Stakes (G2) second time back from a long layoff and did it rather handily. He returns to turf for the first time since winning the Del Mar Derby (G2T) in his final start of 2018.

A — 2, 3

B — 5

La Canada (SA, race 8, 6:35 ET): This will be Round 4 between the two morning-line choices, Hard Not to Love (2) and Fighting Mad (3), who make their first starts since running second and third respectively in the Zenyatta Stakes (G2) in late September.

Hard Not to Love has fired fresh before, with a 3-1-0 record from five starts coming off workouts, counting her career debut. That mark includes a win in the 2019 La Brea (G1) after a two-month break. However, she is winless from four tries going two turns.

Fighting Mad, the likely pacesetter, has also won off works three times, most notably a front-running score in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1).

If there's a way around the two chalks, it probably comes in the form of Sanenus (5), a Chilean import who improved through her first three starts in the United States, the most recent of which was a runner-up finish in the Chilukki Stakes (G3) behind the multiple graded stakes winner Finite. In the Chilukki, Sanenus forced a sharp pace, reached the front after six furlongs, and remained clear of next-out stakes winner Whoa Nellie for second. It's worth mentioning the daughter of the late Scat Daddy was the only horse involved in the early pace who was anywhere close at the finish.

A — 2, 3

B — 5

Las Cienegas (SA, race 9, 7:05 ET): The Aussie-bred Oleksandra (6) and the Brazilian-bred Jolie Olimpica (7) respectively dealt with splint and foot issues in 2020 but were still able to hang up triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures when firing on all cylinders.

Oleksandra was a fast-closing second to Jolie Olimpica in the Monrovia Stakes (G2T) first time back from a layoff last May and returned a few weeks later to beat males in the Jaipur Stakes (G1T). Her only appearance since then was an off-the-board finish in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T), and I didn't like the way she lugged in through the stretch.

Jolie Olimpica began her U.S. career by winning a 5 1/2-furlong edition of this race last year and held off Oleksandra in the Monrovia two starts after that. She makes her first start since setting the pace and holding second in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T) behind Rushing Fall, who subsequently took the Diana Stakes(G1T) for her sixth grade 1 victory.

The up-and-coming Lighthouse (4) rates a long look in her initial attempt against older graded stakes rivals. She came back from a layoff and put up three improved performances from May through September. The Mizzen Mast  filly showed ample pace versatility in progressively tougher spots, culminating with a stalking trip to win the $400,000 Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs, and she will again have Umberto Rispoli at the helm.

A — 4, 7

B — 6