Tip of the Week: The Ugly Duckling

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Wagering on horses that lost their last race by nearly 40 lengths is probably not the ideal way to collect on a high percentage of your bets.
Yet every now and then you find might a horse that has a plausible explanation for such an ugly setback and becomes a worthwhile inclusion in your exotics wagers.
Causeway Cowboy came into the fifth race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26 off one of those unsightly losses. The 4-year-old gelding lost by 39 ¾ lengths in his previous start, a six-furlong $12,500 maiden claimer on the dirt on Jan. 29. That race came on the heels of seven out of eight races in which he ran on turf. The lone dirt race in that bunch was a second-place finish, when he lost by 6 ½ lengths, in a maiden claimer that was washed off the turf. Most likely, in that dirt race, Causeway Cowboy faced a group of rivals who, like him, would have preferred to run on grass.
In his only other dirt try, Causeway Cowboy faced maiden claimer sprinters in a true dirt race – not one moved there due to Mother Nature – and lost by 23 2/4 lengths in his career debut.
In that Jan. 29 start, Causeway Cowboy took a big dip in claiming price from $20,000 to $12,500, and largely because of that second in the off-the-turfer, he was sent off at 5-2.
Causeway Cowboy burned plenty of money that day and his last-place finish seemed to confirm a downward spiraling trend visible from fifth and fourth place finishes in his two previous races – both on turf.
So while the last race screamed “stay away” what was curious about Causeway Cowboy was that he was returning to the turf in a $20,000 maiden claimer at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.
As ugly as the last race was, could it have been little more a workout in which the trainer hoped the turf-to-dirt and turn-back-to-a-sprint angles would generate an improved effort in either that race or the next one.
The Jan. 29 race was a dud, so maybe the Feb. 26 race was the time to reap the benefits of that move. After all, in seven turf races Causeway Cowboy was never wore than fifth and on three occasions he lost by less than two lengths.
In his last six turf races, Causeway Cowboy had never been higher than 6-1 and now he was priced at 10-1 thanks to a poor effort that seemed to have the proverbial asterisk attached to it.
It seemed a viable gamble at that price, especially since the even-money favorite was a horse who was taking a class drop and was 0-for-11 with only one race in which he finished third better.
Those who believed Causeway Cowboy was worth a few bucks at that 10-1 price no doubt felt like a Rhinestone Cowboy after he won by a half-length and returned $22.60 for a $2 win bet and topped $2 payoffs of $466.20 for the exacta, $2,928.40 for the triple and $7,824.60 for the superfecta.
THE LESSON: Do not automatically toss a horse off an ugly performance. There could be a plausible excuse that leads to a hefty payoff in its next start. The ugly duckling can sometimes turn into a beautiful swan.
CAUSEWAY COWBOY'S PAST PERFORMANCES