Improbable Takes Older Dirt Male Honors

Improbable  grew up between 2019 and 2020, and the difference earned him an Eclipse Award.

Undefeated in three starts at 2 in 2018, Improbable became another of trainer Bob Baffert's endless string of Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) winners. Sent on the Triple Crown trail in 2019, Improbable earned healthy paychecks almost every time he competed, but he came away with only one victory: the Shared Belief Stakes.

Baffert and owners WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing gave Improbable time to mature. In 2020 the colt didn't debut at 4 until the April 11 Oaklawn Mile Stakes, where he finished second to Tom's d'Etat .

"He's filled out," Baffert said. "The talent's always been there. He was a lighter horse last year (in 2019). This year we've taken our time with him."

Improbable wouldn't lose to another older horse for the rest of 2020.

Back at Santa Anita Park he coasted home by an easy 3 1/4 lengths in the June 6 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), newly rebranded back to its original moniker. Baffert had scratched Improbable out of the May 2 Oaklawn Handicap (G2) to point for the Gold Cup instead.

"This horse is only going to get better," Baffert predicted—and, not surprisingly, the Hall of Fame trainer was right.

Improbable turned in his best effort in the Aug. 1 Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course. He defeated By My Standards by two lengths and avenged himself against Tom's d'Etat, who finished third as the even-money favorite. By My Standards had won the Oaklawn Handicap that Improbable skipped.

But Improbable was far from done. Again at Santa Anita, he faced stablemate Maximum Security  in the Sept. 26 Awesome Again Stakes (G1). Both had a history in the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), before Baffert trained Maximum Security. Improbable had finished fifth as the favorite in the Derby behind Maximum Security's first-to-the-wire finish, but Maximum Security would be disqualified to 17th and Improbable would be placed fourth.

This time Improbable triumphed over Maximum Security by 4 1/2 lengths.

They both returned in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland, along with 3-year-old Authentic , all from the Baffert barn. Baffert completed the exacta with Authentic and Improbable, as each colt sewed up his respective Eclipse divisional awards.

Bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, Improbable was a $200,000 purchase by WinStar's Maverick Racing and China Horse Club from Taylor Made Sales Agency's consignment to the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale after Taylor Made bought him for $110,000 as a weanling from the Lane's End consignment to the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. He now heads to stud at WinStar near Versailles, Ky.