Handicapping: Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis Opinions

Three-year-olds are spotlighted across the country Jan. 30 in four qualifiers to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

The boys stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) and Holy Bull Stakes (G3), while fillies are featured in the $200,000 Martha Washington Stakes and the Forward Gal Stakes (G3).

The Holy Bull and Forward Gal are just two of five stakes for sophomores at Gulfstream Park, where the perennial leading trainer Todd Pletcher has the first or second choice in all five events including Prime Factor in the Holy Bull, Zaajel in the Forward Gal, Never Surprised in the Kitten's Joy Stakes (G3), Likeable in the Claiborne Farms Swale Stakes (G3), and Con Lima in the Sweetest Chant Stakes (G3).

The Lewis shares top billing at Santa Anita Park with the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) for older horses, which attracted the well-matched trio of Runhappy Malibu Stakes (G1) runner-up Express Train, San Antonio Stakes (G2) runner-up Idol, and last year's Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner King Guillermo.

At Oaklawn Park, the Martha Washington precedes the $150,000 American Beauty Stakes for filly-and-mare sprinters.

At Aqueduct Racetrack, the Toboggan Stakes (G3) is the first graded stakes of the New York season.

We've got potential price plays in four races: French Empire in the American Beauty; Parnelli in the R. B. Lewis; Queen of the Green in the Sweetest Chant; and Papetu in the Holy Bull. Here's a look chronologically, all post times ET.

Sweetest Chant (GP, race 10, 4:18): After breaking from outside posts in her first three turf races, Queen of the Green (1) has the rail a month after a facile maiden graduation at Tampa Bay Downs, which is good news in a race with a short run to the first turn. Her off-the-pace style should play well in a matchup where 2-1 choice Con Lima (4) comes off two wins with everything her own way up front, and now faces pace pressure from several opponents.

Also figuring to benefit from the race shape is White Frost (5), among a bevy of maiden winners for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott the past couple of months. White Frost improved big time when stretched out and switched to turf at Aqueduct, and horses who do that often come right back with further development second time on grass.

A — 4, 5

B — 1

Holy Bull (GP, race 11, 4:50): Papetu (3) represents something horseplayers don't often see, a horse with the top last-out Beyer Speed Figure that is 15-1 on the morning line. Papetu had a cruel summer at Saratoga Race Course, finishing far back in the Saratoga Special Presented By Miller Lite Stakes (G2) and the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1). However, all three of his races locally have been good, beginning with two sprint wins in early summer. He returned from a layoff and handled a stretch to one mile nicely in the recent Mucho Macho Man Stakes, finishing a clear second to heavily favored Mutasaabeq at odds of 20-1, and has since logged two purposeful works at seven and six furlongs.

Late runners Greatest Honour (7) and Sittin On Go (8) loom large by virtue of their two-turn dirt experience, though enthusiasm is somewhat tempered by the fact that races at 1 1/16-miles at Gulfstream end at the first finish line, making an already short stretch run even shorter. Greatest Honour overcame early trouble to graduate early at the meet, and the Tapit  colt is worth following as the distances lengthen, as his dam is a half sister to Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Jazil and Rags to Riches. Sittin On Go, the only graded stakes winner, is perhaps getting some class relief after failing to fire in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Prior to that, he won the Iroquois Stakes Presented by Ford (G3) in stakes-record time over Midnight Bourbon, who has since won the Lecomte Stakes (G3).

Prime Factor (6), a $900,000 son of Quality Road , stretches out for Pletcher, who also entered debut winner Amount (4).

A — 7, 8

B — 3, 6

C — 4

American Beauty (OP, race 8, 5:40): A pace meltdown could be in the cards here as Frank's Rockette (7), who strung together consecutive wins in the Victory Ride Stakes (G3), Prioress Stakes (G2), and Gallant Bloom Handicap (G2) last season, makes her first start since outrun against males in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). It's worth mentioning she has won off works three times from as many tries for Mott.

Frank's Rockette benefited from some favorable pace scenarios in 2020 but showed the ability to rate just off the lead, and that trait may come in handy since she is drawn between run-and-gun types Amy's Challenge (6) and Lady's Island (9).

I could see either French Empire (1) or Sunny Dale (4) rallying to land somewhere on the board at double-digit odds. French Empire comes off two blowout wins on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park but was in good form on dirt leading up to those races. Sunny Dale reeled off three straight wins at Oaklawn last year in progressively tougher spots under Martin Garcia, who tied for second in the Oaklawn standings last year and is back aboard as he continues his recovery from a fractured collarbone sustained in October.

A — 7

B — 1, 4, 6

Robert B. Lewis (SA, race 7, 6:37): Medina Spirit (1) and Wipe the Slate (7) share a promising tried-and-true form pattern as young horses who improved significantly second time out. Medina Spirit did so with blinkers removed when second-best in the Sham Stakes (G3) to stablemate Life Is Good (who was 1-5), while Wipe the Slate, second to Life Is Good first out, came back with a forward move for a maiden win with blinkers added.

Hot Rod Charlie (4) also improved with blinkers on for his last two starts, a maiden win on this track followed by a sharp second in the BC Juvenile at 94-1.

Rombauer (2) and Parnelli (3) should offer some value. Rombauer, a rallying fifth in the Juvenile from post 13, exhibits a forward-moving development line through four starts. Parnelli set the pace and came out on the short end of stretch duels with Hot Rod Charlie and subsequent Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Spielberg (8) in the fall, but then rated for the first time en route to a maiden score. He ran on for third in the Sham after being outsprinted early, but figures to be much more in touch with the pace as he gets a switch to Umberto Rispoli.

A — 1, 7

B — 2, 3, 4