Handicapping: Senor Buscador the Top Play in Risen Star

Some nasty weather has forced cancellations at Aqueduct Racetrack, Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and Oaklawn Park over the past week. 

Torrential downpours shuttered Fair Grounds Feb. 11. Rain is expected to linger through Feb. 13 when the track stages a six-stakes card topped by the Risen Star Stakes Presented By Lamarque Ford (G2) and Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented By Fasig-Tipton (G2), the season's first two 85-point qualifiers (50-20-10-5) for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

At Laurel Park—where a winter storm watch is in effect—Saturday's "Winter Sprintfest" program features nine stakes worth a combined $900,000, headed by the General George Stakes (G3) and Barbara Fritchie Stakes (G3) at seven furlongs.

Out at Santa Anita Park, a terrific renewal of the Santa Monica Stakes(G2)—also at seven furlongs—attracted a deep field of fillies and mares, notably Fair Maiden and Hard Not to Love, the last two winners of the La Brea Stakes (G1).

Rachel Alexandra (FG, race 12, 6:47 ET): Travel Column (8) overcame traffic and wore down Clairiere (1) to win the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs in late November. They meet again in their seasonal debuts and figure to vie for favoritism now that Silverbulletday Stakes winner Charlie's Penny has been sidelined by injury.

Souper Sensational (2) and Moon Swag (3) chased Charlie's Penny home in the Silverbulletday, finishing second and third while compromised by a slow pace up front. Considering that was Souper Sensational's first start on dirt, her first start at two turns, and her first outing in three months, that was a solid performance. Moon Swag, who was also going long for the first time, overcame early trouble and notched an improved speed figure.

A — 1, 8

B — 2, 3

Risen Star (FG, race 13, 7:18 ET): Midnight Bourbon (6) made every pole a winning one in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) to launch his 3-year-old campaign, and he will try to reprise that effort against Proxy (2) and Mandaloun (11), who were heads apart finishing second and third.

Those three all appear headed in the right direction. So does Senor Buscador (5), who won both of his starts at Remington Park last fall with impressive late runs, capped by a blowout victory in the Springboard Mile Stakes. The Springboard came up huge on everyone's figures, and this is a pleasant opportunity to back the fastest horse in the race at a square price.

A — 5

B — 2, 6, 11

Barbara Fritchie (Lrl, race 7, 3:23 ET): Dontletsweetfoolya (3) has won five in a row and Hello Beautiful (8) is perfect from seven starts over the local dirt track. Although the race obviously goes through these two, it's conceivable they'll go at each other from the opening bell, which could set the table for an off-the-pace upsetter.

We're taking a couple swings with Club Car (2) and Estilo Talentoso (4). Club Car was a dozen lengths behind early and put in a good run to wind up second to Hello Beautiful in the What A Summer Stakes, and Saturday's additional furlong may help her. Estilo Talentoso is the lone turnback in the lineup and comes off a useful tuneup in the 1 1/16-mile Wayward Lass Stakes first time out since last August.

A — 2, 4

B — 3, 8

General George (Lrl, race 8, 3:53 ET): Going back to June 2019, Laki (1) and morning-line choice Funny Guy (2) have lost as the favorite a combined 13 times. The latter has run outside the New York circuit only once, when off the board in that year's Oklahoma Derby (G3).

Lebda (3) has some appeal after beginning his current form cycle with a couple of fast races at six furlongs, but this longer sprint could be a stretch.

Share the Ride (6) looks like the horse to beat. The hard-knocking sprinter was claimed for a mere $16,000 last July and has banked $200,000 for his current connections, taking the Mr. Prospector Stakes at Monmouth Park and the Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) at the Big A along the way. He was severely hindered by a lack of pace and a wide trip while giving weight in the Toboggan Stakes (G3) most recently.

A — 6

B — 1, 2, 3

Santa Monica (SA, race 8, 7:20 ET): Hard Not to Love (4) has been running at two turns since last March, but is back to her best game and could be playable as a low-priced overlay. She has won five of six sprints, including last year's renewal of this event at 3-5.

Qahira (5) and Amuse (8) were 1-2 in the Kalookan Queen Stakes, and the former appeared to win with something left in the tank.

Miss Stormy D (2) nosed Hard Not to Love for second in the La Canada Stakes (G3) five weeks back. She will be cutting back to a sprint third off the bench, and her top efforts are good enough to get a piece of this at 20-1 on the morning line.

A — 4

B — 2, 5, 8