Handicapping: Oaklawn, Gulfstream Stakes in Focus

The final Saturday in February showcases the 3-year-old debuts of three Breeders' Cup winners. Divisional champs Essential Quality and Vequist return respectively in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Davona Dale Stakes (G2), and Fire At Will switches to dirt in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2).

The $750,000 Southwest, the last of the 17-point qualifiers to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), has been rescheduled three times because of severe winter weather in the Midwest that shuttered Oaklawn Park for eight racing days and canceled training for 11 days. The 1 1/16-mile race is preceded by the $600,000 Razorback Handicap (G3), which was originally scheduled for Feb. 13, and the $200,000 Spring Fever for filly-and-mare sprinters. Although Hot Springs, Ark., has thawed out from the deep freeze, there is a strong possibility of showers.

The $300,000 Fountain of Youth and the $200,000 Davona Dale are 85-point qualifiers to the Derby and the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), and highlight a 14-race card at Gulfstream Park that includes seven additional stakes.

As per usual, we're looking to key on some contenders that may fall through the cracks for one reason or another.

Razorback Handicap (OP, race 7, 4:20 ET): The prospect of a wet track would be just ducky for Hunka Burning Love (2), who has won eight of 11 starts since being claimed last spring by Karl Broberg, including a four-length win in a sloppy Delta Mile Stakes and a 13-length allowance score in the mud. He is potentially loose on the lead in a spot where obvious threats such as Owendale (4) and Mystic Guide (7) do their best running late.

The deep closer Owendale makes his first start since running third in the Clark Presented by Norton Healthcare (G1) for Brad Cox, who sent out Warrior's Charge to win this race off a layoff in 2020.

Mystic Guide, by Ghostzapper  and out of the A.P. Indy mare Music Note, should relish off going and was vastly improved with blinkers added for his last two starts at age 3, capped by a close second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1).

Silver Prospector (1), last year's Southwest winner, was unsettled early and had the rider lose the whip late when chasing a slow pace in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) last out.

A — 2, 4

B — 1, 7

Southwest Stakes (OP, race 10, 5:58 ET): Jackie's Warrior (4) came up short as the odds-on favorite in the TVG Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1), reaching a short lead in midstretch but fading to fourth as Essential Quality came rolling on the outside to win going away.

This is a good situation for dual grade 1 winner Jackie's Warrior to turn the tables, as the pace matchup will not be nearly as demanding as it was in the Juvenile.

A — 4

B — 1

Herecomesthebride Stakes (GP, race 3, 12:26 ET): A prior start against White Frost suggests Lijana (2) can handle the rise from a second-out maiden win into grade 3 company. She was a solid second to White Frost when unveiled at Aqueduct Racetrack in the fall, and the latter returned to capture the Sweetest Chant Stakes (G3T) at Gulfstream at the expense of Con Lima (3), who will vie for favoritism in this field with Spanish Loveaffair (1). 

Although her pedigree tilts to sprinting, Tobys Heart (6) bears watching after winning both of her starts last summer, notably the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga Racecourse, which has produced four next-out stakes winners.

A —  2

B —  1, 3, 6

Honey Fox Stakes (GP, race 11, 4:29 ET): Bill Mott has won this grade 3 race eight times, and the Hall of Fame trainer sends out the Juddmonte Farms homebred Ricetta (4) for her second start in the United States, and first since chasing in the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Oaks. She will appreciate cutting back to one mile, and Mott has been deadly with fresh horses the last couple of months, notching 11 wins with either first-time starters or horses that had been absent anywhere from 69-183 days.

Ricetta will be a square price due to the presence of Got Stormy (2), a multiple grade 1 winner of more than $2 million who makes her first appearance since flattening out late in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T).

Zoefelle (6) and Feel Glorious (7), who come off respective wins in the Marshua's River (G3T) and the Forever Together Stakes, are in the mix as well.

A —  2, 4

B —  6, 7

Davona Dale Stakes (GP, race 12, 5:04 ET): Vequist (3) rode a live rail to victory in the Juvenile Fillies (G1), and will probably be bet below her 7-5 morning-line quote. 

Going on the Mott-fires-fresh angle, Millefeuille (5) rates a long look first time back since getting run down late in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) by the unbeaten Malathaat, who was 2-5.

Crazy Beautiful (6) failed to fire behind Vequist to wrap up her season, but won or placed as the favorite in four starts prior to that, and has a versatile running style.

Adios Trippi (8) will be a huge price for the red-hot Peter Walder, who won seven straight races here over the past week, and she will take them as far as she can.

A — 3, 5

B — 6

C — 8

Fountain of Youth Stakes (GP, race 14, 6:10 ET): Greatest Honour (8) stands out off two wins over the track at this trip, capped by a decisive triumph in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) four weeks ago.

Earlier that day, Drain the Clock (1) continued to impress by taking the Claiborne Farm Swale Stakes (G3) by better than six lengths. He will stretch out to two turns for the first time, and landed a great post.

The Juvenile Turf Presented by Coolmore America (G1T) was the third straight win for Fire At Will (4), a streak that began in a sloppy, off-the-turf renewal of the With Anticipation against only three opponents. By Declaration of War and out of a Kitten's Joy  mare, it remains to be seen whether he can continue to progress on dirt.

King's Ovation (6) is a potential price play for trainer Dale Romans, who sent out Promises Fulfilled  to win this race at 18-1 three years ago. 

King's Ovation was in the midst of a good run when forced to pause at the top of the stretch in the Swale, and continued on to be clearly second best before galloping out past Drain the Clock after the finish. The son of Not This Time  posted a bullet five-furlong workout Feb. 20.

A — 6, 8

B — 1, 4, 7