Prevalence Could Use Allowance as Derby Springboard

While champion Essential Quality is well on his way to carrying the banner for owner/breeder Godolphin in the 2021 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), the powerhouse racing outfit could add one more runner to the fray ahead of the first Saturday in May. 

The colt in question is 3-year-old Prevalence, a homebred son of Medaglia d'Oro . The Brendan Walsh trainee broke his maiden by a handy 8 1/2 lengths racing seven furlongs on debut Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park. Originally intended to make his second start in February—possibly in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)—the colt was sidelined due to illness. Now on the mend, he will start as the heavy favorite in a $52,000 allowance optional claiming race at a mile at Gulfstream March 11. 

"It was minor, a cough, but that put him out of any consideration for the Fountain of Youth," Walsh said. "He's worked back since and has worked really well. He worked really good Friday, so we're happy with him. It will be a nice progression (Thursday) going a mile from seven-eighths."

The 4-5 morning-line favorite in Thursday's eighth race, Prevalence will break from the outside, post 6, under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Prevalence most recently breezed five furlongs on the dirt March 5 at the Palm Meadows Training Center. He was clocked in 1:00 3/5, the fourth fastest of 15 horses at the distance. 

Depending on Prevalence's effort Thursday, a Kentucky Derby prep is a possibilty for his following race.

"If we do, depending on tomorrow, it would be one of the very last ones, like the Arkansas Derby (G1), the Wood (Memorial, G2), or the Blue Grass (G2)," Walsh said referring to the April preps that award Road to the Kentucky Derby points on a 100-40-20-10 scale. "But I hate to look any further ahead than tomorrow."

Sharing the highweight of 122 pounds and Prevalence's most likely competition in Thursday's race are Caxambas Candy and Tio Magico, who are trained by David Fawkes and Gail Cox, respectively. 

Jay and Joan Janssen's Caxambas Candy is a son of Twirling Candy  who also won his maiden debut at Gulfstream. Ridden by Joe Bravo, who will have the call again in Thursday's allowance from post 2, the colt put in an impressive last-to-first effort that sent him sailing past the wire in the Feb. 17 one-mile off-the-turf test to win by 4 3/4 lengths.

Ontario-bred Tio Magico is an Uncle Mo  colt bred and campaigned by Sam-Son Farm. Thursday's allowance will be the first start of the year for the sophomore, who kicked off his career at 2 at Woodbine. Tio Magico is one of only two runners in the field with stakes experience. He enters the allowance off a second-place run in the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine last November. Junior Alvarado has the call from post 5.