Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Carpe Diem powered to a dominant win in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 to bolster his credentials on the Kentucky Derby trail. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were a week ago. 
Heating Up

1. Carpe Diem 

Eclipse Sportswire

There was plenty of buzz about Carpe Diem leading up to his season debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I wanted to see proof that this was the same horse or better than the one we saw finish a distant second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before I jumped on the bandwagon. Carpe Diem came through in a big way with a five-length romp in the Tampa Bay Derby that earned him a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 105. By elite sire Giant’s Causeway out of a stakes-winning mare who has produced a pair of Grade 1 winners, Carpe Diem has the pedigree to complement his ability. He jumped from No. 13 to No. 4 in my rankings and I feel really confident about bumping him up so far.

2. El Kabeir

Eclipse Sportswire

My ankles were still in recovery from leaping off the El Kabeir bandwagon after he finished second in the Withers Stakes, but I must admit he rebounded impressively in the Gotham Stakes when winning by 2 ¾ lengths. With the benefit of hindsight, I think El Kabeir’s win actually confirms my high evaluation of Withers victor Far From Over. El Kabeir posted a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in the Gotham, which brought him back to almost even with the career top (106) he earned at seven furlongs in his second career start. That shows me he is maturing nicely. While I still have some doubts about his ability to excel at 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby, I think he will be a big player in the key Triple Crown preps with a shot for a top-three finish in a classic race.

3. Dortmund

Eclipse Sportswire

Dortmund was the most impressive winner, by far, last weekend. But because he was already third on my top 10, he had less room to rise and picked up just one spot. Now unbeaten in five starts, Dortmund looked like he was toying with his opponents in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes and I think the colt he shrugged off at the top of the stretch, Bolo, is a big-time talent. After winning dogfights with Firing Line in his previous two starts, Dortmund showed an ability to put an opponent away in the San Felipe. A massive horse with ground-devouring strides, Dortmund reminds me of his Derby- and Preakness-winning sire Big Brown. Big Brown started to really figure things out in time for the Kentucky Derby and it looks like Dortmund is doing the same. His high cruising speed will be a huge asset in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.

Cooling Off

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho 

Coady Photography

I was sky high on Ocho Ocho Ocho so his absolute clunker in the San Felipe Stakes came as a shock to me. He dropped from No. 2 in my rankings all the way out of the top 20. He came into the race unbeaten in three starts, including a game win over Mr. Z in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, and had posted back-to-back 105 Equibase Speed Figures. Ocho Ocho Ocho encountered some traffic trouble in the San Felipe, but I don’t think the trouble is a legitimate excuse for his eighth-place finish in the race, beaten by 15 ½ lengths. It sounds like his connections are committed to bringing him back in the Santa Anita Derby, and I will be keeping an eye on him, but I won’t be backing him at the betting windows. Off that disappointing performance, Ocho Ocho Ocho now got some serious catching up to do to be a real threat in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

2. Ocean Knight 

Eclipse Sportswire

Ocean Knight was bumped at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby, but I don’t think that is a reasonable explanation for a seventh-place finish in which he was 29 ¼ lengths behind winner Carpe Diem and posted a 60 Equibase Speed Figure. I had plenty of chips pushed in on this Curlin colt, who had won his first two races impressively and posted back-to-back triple-digit speed figures. Coming off a game win in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Ocean Knight looked like a lightly raced colt, improving at the right time, and poised to make some noise on the Derby trail. The Tampa Bay Derby dud is a major setback. I still think a lot of this colt and I’m not giving up on him just yet, but boy was this performance poor timing for a three-year-old targeting the Kentucky Derby.

3. Khozan

Coglianese photos/Lauren Hill

News came out last week that highly regarded Khozan was injured and off the Kentucky Derby trail. He underwent successful surgery on Monday to repair a fracture in his right hind leg and is expected to miss 3-4 months. It’s a tough blow for a colt who posted a 112 Equibase Speed Figure in his career debut in January and followed with a 108 speed figure in his second start in February. Combine a pair of dazzling wins with a regal pedigree — he is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to three-time champion Royal Delta — and you have an incredibly exciting three-year-old. Unfortunately, we won’t see Khozan again on the Derby trail but racing fans can look forward to his return in the second half of the year. Brilliant talent is worth the wait and we wish Khozan a complete and speedy recovery. 

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Dortmund  2. American Pharoah 3. Far From Over 4. Carpe Diem  5. Texas Red 6. Firing Line  7. Far Right  8. International Star 9. Upstart  10. Bolo 
Six on the bubble: Prospect Park, Royal Son, Metaboss, Itsaknockout, War Story 

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.