Handicapping: Come-backers at Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita

The final Saturday of winter finds the most important racing taking place at Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita Park.

Oaklawn cards five stakes bookended by the Azeri Stakes (G2) and $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), which bestows 85 qualifying points (50-20-10-5) toward the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) to be run May 1.

Out at the Great Race Place, the Beholder Mile (G1) highlights a program that also includes the San Simeon Stakes (G3T).

At both venues, come-backers are a recurring theme.

In the Azeri, morning-line choice Shedaresthedevil, last year's upset winner of the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), makes her first start since finishing third as the 6-5 favorite in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1). She takes on Envoutante, who was last seen winning the Falls City Stakes (G2) by six lengths on Thanksgiving Day.

Whitmore and C Z Rocket, the one-two finishers in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), make their seasonal debuts in the Hot Springs Stakes.

Cistron returns for his third go-round in the San Simeon, but the 2019 runner-up and 2020 winner hasn't been out since fading to fifth in the Daytona (G3T) last May.

In the Beholder Mile, Swiss Skydiver and Harvest Moon make their first appearances since the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

The other recurring theme—one that handicappers have been dealing with more and more—is horses getting on and off the Lasix merry-go-round.

In the Essex Handicap, Tax and Harpers First Ride are back on Lasix and look to rebound after finishing far back in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) without it. That was the second time Tax has been a no-show in the Pegasus, and Harpers First Ride, who entered in raging form, was eased.

In the Beholder, Swiss Skydiver and Harvest Moon race without Lasix for the first time. So does As Time Goes By, the likely third choice.

Three horses in the Rebel—Big Lake, Hozier, and Twilight Blue—won with Lasix last out, but will not get it Saturday since all Kentucky Derby/Oaks qualifiers are being run Lasix-free.

With some trepidation, we dip our toes in the water on the eve of Daylight Saving Time.

Essex (OP, race 7, 4:08 ET): With the caveat that either Harpers First Ride (2) or Tax (4) can win this $500,000 affair if able to reproduce their penultimate efforts, we're keying on local runners Silver State (5) and Night Ops (7).

Silver State got seven months off after a disappointing try in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) last March, and has come back to win three straight races capped by a score in the Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn.

Night Ops, last year's Essex winner, gets a favorable seven-pound shift in the weights from Silver State after rallying mildly for third in the Fifth Season. That was the first outing for Night Ops since winning the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (G3) last July, and he figures to move forward.

A - 5, 7

B - 2, 4

Hot Springs (OP, race 10, 5:45 ET): Other than the immortal Kelso, who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup five straight years (1960-64), I can't think of another horse who has won a stakes race five times, which is what reigning Eclipse Award sprint champion Whitmore (6) is attempting to do.

They will probably erect a statue of Whitmore in Hot Springs, where the 8-year-old gelding has compiled a 9-4-1 record from 14 starts, but bear in mind his preparations have not been ideal due to severe weather that recently shut down training for 11 days; he may be a work or two short.

C Z Rocket (7) won five in a row off a Peter Miller claim last year, a streak that ended with a second in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. However, he has trained steadily in sunny Southern California and may be the sharper of the two for the rematch.

Flagstaff (2) was a close second to C Z Rocket in both the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G2) last year, and was probably best in the 2020 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) when a fast-closing second to Whitmore after a poor start and wide trip.

A - 2, 7

B - 6

Rebel (OP, race 11, 6:16 ET): Caddo River (1) comes off a front-end romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes early at the meet for Brad Cox, and the son of Hard Spun  will vie for favoritism with Concert Tour (7), a Street Sense  colt who ships in for Bob Baffert.

Concert Tour's development to this point, a debut maiden win followed quickly by a win in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), mirrors the profile Nadal showed in winning last year's Rebel for Baffert, who has won this race an amazing seven times since 2010.

Concert Tour drops three pounds from the San Vicente and rates the edge over Caddo River, who adds seven pounds after having everything his own way in the Smarty Jones.

Keepmeinmind (6), yet another come-backer to reckon with, makes his first start since a last-to-first victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall. Like the two choices, he is good to go sans Lasix.

A - 7

B - 1, 6

Beholder Mile (SA, race 8, 7:20 ET): Swiss Skydiver (1) had a throwback campaign that garnered her an Eclipse as champion 3-year-old filly. I'm not sure, though, that this is the spot I would have picked out for her return, as the five graded stakes wins she racked up in 2020 were all at longer distances, notably the Preakness Stakes (G1) at 1 3/16 miles and the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes (G1) at 1 1/4 miles.

She looked to be "over the top" flattening out through the stretch of the Distaff, after which she received a well-deserved vacation. A five-furlong breeze in :58 last Saturday was much faster than planned, after she inadvertently hooked up with another worker on the track at Gulfstream Park.

Shipping across the country at a less-than-ideal distance, giving weight, and going without Lasix for the first time, this may be the time to try and knock off the champ.

As noted earlier, Harvest Moon (3) and As Time Goes By (6) are unknowns without Lasix, too, but at least that risk factor will be built into their prices.

Harvest Moon reeled off four straight wins when switched to dirt last year, including three at this trip, and did much of the dirty work in the Distaff by contesting a strong pace to the stretch. She looks like the real deal.

The same may be true of As Time Goes By, a daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah , who was an explosive allowance winner when stretched out to a mile last out by Baffert. She figured to relish the added ground, as half brother Will Take Charge  and dam Take Charge Lady were major stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles and beyond. Ironically, the latter was trained by Ken McPeek, who also trains Swiss Skydiver.

Sanenus (4) has some appeal after a big win in the La Canada (G3) coming off Lasix, but I question whether she's fast enough.

A - 3

B - 1, 6

C - 4