Handicapping: Graded Action at Fair Grounds

With the exceptions of Gulfstream Park, where the reschedued Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) heads a stakes tripleheader, and Santa Anita Park, where multiple grade 2 winner United will be heavily favored over four rivals in the San Luis Rey Stakes (G3T), all the graded stakes action Saturday, March 20, takes place at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Anchoring the all-grade 2 late pick four with an estimated $750,000 pool are the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), which are the first 170-point qualifiers (100-40-20-10) of the season for the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) being run May 1.

The sequence begins with the New Orleans Classic (G2) and the Muniz Memorial Classic (G2). Some may recall that the same pick four last year handled $664,739 and that after By My Standards ($6.60) won the New Orleans Classic as second choice for Bret Calhoun, the next three legs were won by Brad Cox-trained runners: Factor This ($21.00) wired the Muniz; Bonny South ($14.20) upset the Oaks as 3-10 favorite Finite faded to fourth; and Wells Bayou ($8.40) made every pole a winning one in the Louisiana Derby. The payoff on a 50-cent ticket was $607.35.

Cox, of course, sustained that momentum through a breakout year that earned him an Eclipse Award, and he will send out either the favorite or second choice in all four races: Owendale at 9-5 in the New Orleans; Factor This at 4-1 in the Muniz; Travel Column at 5-2 in the Oaks; and Mandaloun at 8-5 in the Louisiana Derby.

New Orleans Classic (FG, race 11, 5:12 ET): I'm trying not to get suckered in by Roadster (1), a Bob Baffert castoff who hasn't been out in over a year and hasn't won a race since taking the 2019 edition of the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Seven defeats since then include five at odds of 2-1 or lower.

Owendale (2) is the lone "A" as he gets significant class relief after running third in a sloppy renewal of the Razorback Handicap (G3) behind Mystic Guide, who will be the favorite March 27 in the $12 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (G1). Prior to that, Owendale closed out his 4-year-old campaign with a solid third in the Clark Stakes Presented By Norton Healthcare (G1), in which he ran the fastest fourth quarter in the 14-horse field.

We'll use Roadster defensively since he may wind up controlling the pace by default, and we'll also include the in-form Olliemyboy (3), who is 2 for 2 since a trainer change to Norm Casse and now picks up Irad Ortiz Jr.; and Enforceable (5), a potential bounce-back after following a fast optional claiming win with a regression in the Mineshaft Stakes (G3).

A - 2

B - 1, 3, 5

Muniz Memorial (FG, race 12, 5:43 ET): This could be the time to get back on the bandwagon of Factor This (1), but you're not getting 9-1 like last year, and he hasn't been the same since logging a huge figure to win the Dinner Party Stakes (G2T) last fall.

Cross Border (4) and Spooky Channel (8) are hard-knocking veterans who may offer some value in a situation where Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (G1T) winner Colonel Liam is likely to be overbet.

Cross Border always fires. The 7-year-old son of English Channel  finished with good energy for third in the Pegasus Turf, and he gets a favorable weight shift of six pounds from Colonel Liam this time.

Spooky Channel will be third time back from a layoff after winning the 12-furlong John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes (G3T), and has run well previously when cut back from three-turn races, notably a win last May over Parlor, who went on to run a close second in the Maker's 46 Mile (G1T).

A - 4, 8

B - 1, 5

Fair Grounds Oaks (FG, race 13, 6:14 ET): This will be round three for Clairiere (6) and Travel Column (8), who split their first two decisions in similar fashion. In the Golden Rod Stakes (G2), Clairiere rallied to the lead in midstretch but was worn down late by Travel Column. Then, in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2), Travel Column held a clear lead in the stretch but could not withstand a winning late surge by Clairiere.

Souper Sensational (3) impressed in two wins over the synthetic surface at Woodbine last fall, and was a promising second to begin her sophomore season in the Silverbulletday Stakes despite a lack of pace up front. The Live Oak Plantation homebred clipped heels and stumbled badly turning for home in the Rachel Alexandra, and rates a chance to rebound at a price.

Along with Clairiere and Souper Sensational, Curlin  is also represented in the Oaks by Obligatory (5), a Juddmonte Farms homebred who steps up for Bill Mott after an impressive maiden graduation at Gulfstream.

If everything breaks right in surrounding legs, I want to have at least a little backup with Moon Swag (2), a 20-1 outsider on the morning line who galloped out strongly past the wire in the Silverbulletday two back.

A - 6, 8

B - 3, 4, 5

C - 2

Louisiana Derby (FG, race 14, 6:44 ET): The first two finishers in the Risen Star Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2—Mandaloun (6) and Proxy (4)—appear formidable as they stretch out to the demanding distance of 1 3/16 miles.

Mandaloun overcame trouble to win his debut at six furlongs, and the Into Mischief  colt has improved several lengths in each of three subsequent starts as the distances have lengthened, climaxed by a decision over Proxy in the Risen Star when blinkers came on.

Now, it's Proxy's turn to add the hood following runner-up finishes in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star where he appeared somewhat unfocused through the late stages.

The backups are Run Classic (3), Hot Rod Charlie (5) and Midnight Bourbon (7).

Run Classic will attempt to win right back after a maiden win for Bret Calhoun second time out, as did By My Standards ($47.00) when he upset this race in 2019 for the same trainer.

Hot Rod Charlie was freshened after running a close second in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) at 94-1, and had a difficult trip when third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) off the bench.

Midnight Bourbon benefited from an easy lead and wired Proxy and Mandaloun in the Lecomte, but could not hold those two off after dealing with pace pressure in the Risen Star. He will probably have to expend early energy dealing with Rightandjust (2), as was the case in the Risen Star.

A - 4, 6

B - 3, 5, 7