Derby Dozen: Hot Rod Charlie Advances

1. Essential Quality

Trainer/Owner: Brad Cox/Godolphin

Pedigree: Tapit —Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

As a follow-up to the Feb. 27 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, Essential Quality runs next in the April 3 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. The Blue Grass has produced 23 winners of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), though the last was back in 2007 with Street Sense , who ran second in the Blue Grass. The Carl Nafzger-trained Street Sense, like this Brad Cox trainee, was a champion at 2 and Kentucky-based.

2. Concert Tour

Bob Baffert/Gary and Mary West

Street Sense—Purse Strings, by Tapit

Gary and Mary West Stables (KY)

Following a March 20 hind-leg injury to stablemate Life Is Good that took him out of Triple Crown consideration, Concert Tour climbs into second in the Derby Dozen. Unbeaten in three races, but unraced at age 2—to some a big deal, at least before Justify —he seems most likely to pursue the April 10 Arkansas Derby (G1) following his March 13 Rebel Stakes (G2) romp, unless Baffert reshuffles his stakes cards.

3. Greatest Honour

Shug McGaughey/Courtlandt Farms

Tapit—Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry

Courtlandt Farm (KY)

Trainer Shug McGaughey says this late runner is not the most eager work horse, so he was pleased with the colt's :50 2/5 half-mile breeze March 31 at Payson Park in his final tune-up before the March 27 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1) at Gulfstream Park. That is a race that Orb  won for McGaughey in 2013 prior to that colt's Kentucky Derby victory.

4. Hot Rod Charlie

Leandro Mora/Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing,and William Strauss

Oxbow —Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie

Edward A. Cox Jr. (KY)

A change in style to flash more speed led to a change in outcome March 20 in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2). Hot Rod Charlie delivered a track-record performance, admittedly over the infrequently used distance of 1 3/16 miles. Infrequent or not, his time of 1:55.06 was quicker than Wells Bayou's clocking of 1:56.47 in 2020, the first year the race was extended to that trip.

5. Medina Spirit

Bob Baffert/Zedan Racing Stables

Protonico —Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed

Gail Rice (FL)

Medina Spirit was no match for Life Is Good as a distant runner-up in the March 6 San Felipe Stakes (G2), though with that rival now out, he seems as well positioned as any other 3-year-old to capitalize in California. This bargain $35,000 purchase is consistent and game, which has led to two wins and two seconds in four starts. He breezed five furlongs March 22 at Santa Anita in :59.

6. Midnight Bourbon 

Steve Asmussen/Winchell Thoroughbreds

Tiznow—Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon 

Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY)

Though he weakened late in the Louisiana Derby, holding second over fast-finishing third-place finisher O Besos, his runner-up performance leaves him cracking the 'Dozen. He was consistent all winter at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, winning the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and running third in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2). By Tiznow, he should be able to manage 1 1/4 miles.

7. Spielberg 

Bob Baffert/SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm, and Robert Masterson

Union Rags —Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike

G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY)

This inconsistent colt gets a chance in the Florida Derby to validate the fine effort he put forth in the slop in the Southwest behind Essential Quality. Baffert ships far less frequently to Gulfstream than to Oaklawn Park, but he did win the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Runhappy (G1) at Gulfstream with older horse Mucho Gusto in 2020. A threat with an on-time start.

8. Prevalence

Brendan Walsh/Godolphin

Medaglia d'Oro —Enrichment, by Ghostzapper 

Godolphin (KY)

A class test in a major Derby prep awaits Prevalence after pushing his record to 2-for-2 in an allowance optional claiming race March 11. He came back with a half-mile breeze at Gulfstream March 21, an encouraging signal that he came out of his last race in top condition. Yet to race two turns, but he was asked by Tyler Gaffalione on the gallop-out after winning last out, seemingly to prepare for longer races.

9. Risk Taking 

Chad Brown/Klaravich Stables

Medaglia d'Oro—Run a Risk, 
by Distorted Humor 

G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY)

Many 3-year-olds have yet to race 1 1/8 miles, though Risk Taking has already done so twice, having won a maiden race and the Withers Stakes (G3) at the distance. Both races came with blinkers, which likely have contributed to his two-race win streak. Evaluating his class still remains tricky, given the undistinguished stakes company he has kept. The April 3 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2) should prove telling.

10. Brooklyn Strong

Daniel Velazquez/Mark Schwartz

Wicked Strong —Riviera Chic, by Medaglia d'Oro

Cheryl Prudhomme and Dr. Michael Gallivan (NY)

Having missed his 3-year-old season to this point due to sickness and winter weather that impacted training, Brooklyn Strong has a lot riding on the Wood Memorial. He needs to run well to secure Derby points and to provide his connections with Derby faith after a single 3-year-old prep. Trainer Danny Velazquez gave him a :59 3/5 breeze over five furlongs March 20 at Parx Racing to ready him.

11. Known Agenda

Todd Pletcher/St. Elias Stable

Curlin —Byrama, by Byron

St. Elias Stable (KY)

After low-energy efforts in stakes in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), Known Agenda finally extended himself with blinkers in an allowance optional claimer Feb. 26 at Gulfstream. He scored by 11 lengths, running a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. That race, along with form from age 2, when he beat Greatest Honour in a maiden race at Aqueduct, suggests he is a Florida Derby threat.

12. O Besos

Greg Foley/Bernard Racing, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds

Orb—Snuggs and Kisses, by Soto

L. Barrett Bernard (KY)

O Besos challenged at long odds in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby by storming up the inside to grab third. After a quiet fourth-place finish in the Risen Star in his first route, this was an effort that suggests he is not merely a late-running, one-turn horse. Just 25 Derby points—below the threshold needed from 2016-19 to start—though that would have been acceptable in 2020 when the race didn't overfill.