The Truth Or Else Looks to Pull Upset in Rebel

Image: 
Description: 

If The Truth Or Else runs back to his Southwest Stakes form, he may be able to win the Rebel. (Photo by NYRA/Coglinese Photos) 
To some, the field for the 55th running of the Grade 2, $750,000 Rebel Stakes consists of American Pharoah and everyone else. This is possibly the reason only seven are entered for the race in spite of awarding considerable "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points to the top four finishers. American Pharoah won both the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes last year and was likely going to be the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but was sidelined with a bruised foot. Returning in the Rebel following five and a half months off, American Pharoah will be considered the one to beat by many. Among the others, The Truth Or Else demonstrated he fits in the top three-year-old ranks following his runner-up finish last month at Oaklawn in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, while the fourth place finisher Bold Conquest is making his second start after returning from more than four months on the bench and may improve. Madefromlucky ships in from Florida off a pair of wins for North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher and it is rarely a good idea to underestimate the chances of a Pletcher trainee in a Derby prep.
The Truth Or Else is just one for eight in his career to date, but with American Pharoah the only horse in the Rebel field with more than one win, that's not a concern. The Truth Or Else finished third in both the Champagne Stakes and Nashua Stakes as a two-year-old and, although well beaten in both, did show some promise. After a poor sixth in the Remsen Stakes last fall, The Truth Or Else was given time off to mature and when he returned as a three-year-old last month in the Southwest Stakes, he ran the best race of his career. In the Southwest, The Truth Or Else rallied from last of 11 to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to run and although passed late by winner Far Right was still very game, holding off favored Mr. Z by a nose for second. With a 105 Equibase Speed Figure to improve upon in his second start following nearly three months off and with one race under his belt this year, The Truth Or Else has a strong chance to win the Rebel.
American Pharoah lost the first start of his career last August but won the next two, both stakes. He earned a 105 figure winning the Del Mar Futurity then improved off that effort with a 107 figure in the FrontRunner Stakes in September, his first try around two turns. Likely to be the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, American Pharoah was sidelined before the race with a bruised foot. With workouts every six to seven days for over a month in preparation for his three-year-old campaign, American Pharoah is likely as fit as he can be and could pick up where he left off last summer, with a stakes win. On the other hand, workouts are no substitute for races and with the ultimate goal being the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, there's no guarantee American Pharoah can run as well as he did last year in his first start back off such a lengthy layoff.
AMERICAN PHAROAH WON THE FRONTRUNNER IN HIS LAST START

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Bold Conquest improved to a 101 figure in the Southwest when rallying from ninth to fourth, with a bit of traffic trouble on the turn that may have cost him a better placing but was proven at this level as a two-year-old when beaten by a neck in the Iroquois Stakes last summer at the distance of the Rebel. Bold Conquest is trained by Steve Asmussen, whose Tapiture came up a half-length shy of winning this race last year. With improvement possible in his second start following nearly five months off, Bold Conquest could be a strong factor in the late stages of the race.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Madefromlucky (93), Paid Admission (92), Sakima (83) and Tizwonderfulcreek (75). 
Selections in preference order:
The Truth Or Else
American Pharoah
Bold Conquest
$750,000 Rebel StakesSaturday, Oaklawn Park, Race 10, 7:06 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

Owner

MorningLine 

1

The Truth Or Else

Calvin Borel

115

Ken McPeek

Harold Lerner LLC

4-1

2

Madefromlucky

John Velazquez

115

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol

6-1

3

Tizwonderfulcreek

Belen Quinonez

115

Tim Martin

Tim Martin

30-1

4

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

119

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

1-2

5

Bold Conquest

Ricardo Santana Jr.

115

Steve Asmussen

Ackerley Brothers Farm

8-1

6

Paid Admission

Shaun Bridgmohan

115

Chris Richard

Midwest Thoroughbreds

15-1

7

Sakima

Ramon Vazquez

115

Ron Moquett

Harry Rosenblum

20-1