Make Money Betting American Pharoah in Rebel

American Pharoah won the FrontRunner Stakes (above) in September 2014 at Santa Anita Park and subsequently was named champion two-year-old male. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The road to the Kentucky Derby stops at Oaklawn Park on Saturday for the $750,000 Rebel Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile race restricted to three-year-olds and a key prep on the Triple Crown trail.
In addition to racing for a share of the Rebel’s lucrative $750,000 purse, the seven horses entered in the Rebel Stakes also will be vying for a share of 95 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. Fifty points will be awarded to the first-place finisher, which guarantees the winner of the Rebel a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
There is no need to circumvent the obvious: All eyes are on American Pharoah in this race. American Pharoah was the champion of the two-year-old male division in 2014 and is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who has already won the Kentucky Derby three times (and a total of nine Triple Crown races).  Add the fact that American Pharoah will be ridden by jockey Victor Espinoza, who won the Kentucky Derby just last year aboard California Chrome, and you can see why American Pharoah stands out as the most likely winner of the Rebel.
If American Pharoah wins the Rebel on Saturday, the return on a $2 win ticket is not going to knock your socks off.  If we want to make a little money betting the Rebel, we must figure out who is going to finish in second and third behind the heavy favorite.
AMERICAN PHAROAH WINNING FRONTRUNNER STAKES

Here are the horses that I will be betting “underneath” (i.e. to finish in the second and third positions) in the Rebel:
1. – The Truth Or Else: Most recently ran a nice second-place finish on a wet Oaklawn track in the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 22.  With rain in the forecast for Oaklawn Park again this weekend, The Truth Or Else might find himself running on a wet track for the second time in a row, which could be to his benefit.
2. – Madefromlucky: He is shipping up from Florida for this race, and will be running for a top-notch team of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. If anyone is going to give American Pharaoh a run for his money in this race, I would expect it to be Madefromlucky.
5. – Bold Conquest:  He has never finished worse than fourth in any of his career races, and his most recent race came after a 4 ½-month break from racing action. Now that he has a better foundation for this race, Bold Conquest figures to be in better shape physically for the Rebel and might be ready to put forth his best effort. 
Betting Strategy on a $20 Budget
$5 trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1,5 ($10 bet)
$5 trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 2 ($10 bet)
Total = $20
$750,000 Rebel StakesSaturday, Oaklawn Park, Race 10, 7:06 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

Owner

MorningLine 

1

The Truth Or Else

Calvin Borel

115

Ken McPeek

Harold Lerner LLC

4-1

2

Madefromlucky

John Velazquez

115

Todd Pletcher

Cheyenne Stables and Mac Nichol

6-1

3

Tizwonderfulcreek

Belen Quinonez

115

Tim Martin

Tim Martin

30-1

4

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

119

Bob Baffert

Zayat Stables

1-2

5

Bold Conquest

Ricardo Santana Jr.

115

Steve Asmussen

Ackerley Brothers Farm

8-1

6

Paid Admission

Shaun Bridgmohan

115

Chris Richard

Midwest Thoroughbreds

15-1

7

Sakima

Ramon Vazquez

115

Ron Moquett

Harry Rosenblum

20-1