Handicapping: From Florida to Dubai

Don't sleep in Saturday, March 27, because the first of nine graded stakes on Dubai World Cup Day at Meydan Racecourse is slated for 7:45 a.m. ET and culminates a few hours later with the $5 million Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (G1T) and $12 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (G1). Gulfstream Park gets underway at 11:30 in the morning with a 14-race card that features 10 stakes, six of which are graded. It's also the climactic day of racing at Turfway Park, where six stakes are on tap.

At all three venues are 170-point qualifiers to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1): The $750,000 UAE Derby Sponsored By Emirates NBD (G2) at Meydan; the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby Presented By Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1) at Gulfstream; and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway.

The Florida Derby is the final leg of a Rainbow 6 force-out that had a carryover of $871,143 heading into Friday. The sequence contains four other stakes, notably the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), a 170-point qualifier to the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

If all that's not enough, the final race on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby—the Fukuryu Stakes—will be contested at Nakayama Racecourse, with points distributed on a 40-16-8-4 basis to the first four finishers.

Dubai Sheema Classic (Meydan, race 8 12:10 ET): As followers of this space will recall, the time to get on board with Mishriff (7) was the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1) when he wore down Charatan at 19-1. The stars were aligned for the son of Make Believe that day, but this is an entirely different situation as he comes back in five weeks on the heels of a taxing effort, stretches out to 1 1/2 miles for the first time, and does so from the far outside post as co-favorite on the morning line at 5-2.

Also pegged at 5-2 (the first order of business for a linemaker is to establish a favorite, just saying) is Chrono Genesis (9). This talented grey mare from Japan will be one of our keys along with the accomplished world traveler Mogul (8).

Chrono Genesis was running short of her best trip when third, beaten less than a length in the 10-furlong Tenno Sho Autumn (G1T) by Almond Eye, a nine-time group 1 winner and two-time Horse Of the Year in Japan.

Mogul checked sharply on the second turn of the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T) before running up into traffic between horses approaching the final bend, and came out of that tough trip to win the Longines Hong Kong Vase (G1T), marking the fourth country in which the Galileo colt has captured a graded race.

The main backups are the Godolphin-owned pair of Star Safari (4) and Walton Street (5), both multiple winners over the local course. Mishriff doesn't owe us anything, and is used defensively.

A - 8, 9

B - 4, 5

C - 7

Dubai World Cup (Meydan, race 9, 12:50 ET): Mystic Guide (10) is going to be heavily favored in U.S. wagering pools after a fast comeback win in the Razorback Handicap (G3). That race was in the slop at 1 1/16 miles, though, and the Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper  is coming back in four weeks and racing without Lasix for the first time, following a long journey overseas and time in quarantine.

Another Godolphin contender, Magny Cours (8) offers intrigue at 12-1. The lightly raced 6-year-old has compiled a 5-2-0 record from eight starts on turf and all-weather tracks, but certainly may handle dirt with Medaglia d'Oro  and A. P. Indy on both ends of his pedigree. And while he hasn't won a graded stakes, he defeated the group 1 winners Aspetar and Persian King last year.

Military Law (9) has won or placed in his last four starts on this track, and looks to be on a rebound pattern after finishing a decent sixth in the Saudi Cup second time off a long layoff.

A - 8, 9

B - 10

Gulfstream Park Oaks (GP, race 12, 5:17 ET): The only graded stakes winner in a soft renewal of this 1 1/6-mile race is Con Lima (1), who was moved up from second in the Herecomesthebride (G3T) on grass here four weeks ago. She graduated from the maiden ranks on Gulfstream's main track last summer, and should fall out to an easy lead breaking from the rail.

Four of Con Lima's six opponents emerge from the Davona Dale Stakes (G2). They were all run off their feet that day by the unheralded Wholebodemeister, who romped on the front end at better than 50-1. Finishing second with a late run was Crazy Beautiful (3), who was making her seasonal debut after a promising juvenile campaign that included runner-up finishes in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) and Darley Alcibiades (G1), in which she beat Travel Column, the emphatic winner of the Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) March 20.

Millefeuille (6) was shuffled back a bit on the far turn in the Davona Dale but that doesn't fully explain why she gave up the ghost so readily to win up beaten over 20 lengths as the second choice, an effort that was simply too bad to be a true bill. That was the Curlin  filly's first appearance since leading to deep stretch in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) late last year, and she is expected to give a better account second time back.

A - 1, 3

B - 6

Florida Derby (GP, race 14, 6:40 ET): Greatest Honour (7) will be favored to notch his fourth win of the meet after thrice overcoming the short stretch of 1 1/16-mile races. Logic says the late-running Tapit  colt should relish the added sixteenth of a mile and longer stretch run here.

There's nothing wrong with him per se, but I'm not convinced he's as superior to this group as what will be reflected on the tote board. In the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) he beat Tarantino, who had never run on dirt before; and in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain Of Youth Stakes (G2), he spun his wheels around the far turn before eventually kicking in to run down Drain the Clock, who had never been past seven furlongs.

In a maiden race at Aqueduct Racetrack going 1 1/8 miles last fall, Known Agenda (5) beat Greatest Honour through a long drive. After disappointing runs in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), the addition of blinkers helped spark a big win in allowance/optional claiming company here Feb. 26, and he appears poised to run well again for Todd Pletcher, who is shooting for his sixth Florida Derby score.

A potential sleeper is Nova Rags (1), who took the Pasco Stakes in his first start of the year and returned relatively quickly to finish second in the Sam F. Davis three weeks later. Now, Bill Mott has given this son of Union Rags  seven weeks to prepare for his second try around two turns, and it's worth mentioning both of his wins, as a first-time starter and in the Pasco, came off workouts.

Spielberg (10) drew horribly for Bob Baffert, but the $1 million colt is the only graded stakes winner in the field besides the favorite.

If everything breaks the right way in earlier legs of the pick 3/4/5/6, whatever be your jam, it would be nice to have coverage with Soup and Sandwich (8) and Collaborate (9), a couple of Into Mischief  colts light on experience with just two starts apiece, but clearly talented based on what they've shown so far.

A - 1, 5

B - 7, 10

C - 8, 9