Concert Tour Stops at Oaklawn Again for Arkansas Derby

With the first, second, fourth, fifth, and seventh-place finishers from the Rebel Stakes (G2) returning, the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) is certainly a rematch of last month's stepping stone race at Oaklawn Park.

But if trainer Brad Cox gets his way, it will not be a replay of the Rebel, especially in the early stages.

In the March 13 Rebel, Cox's speedy Caddo River  was the 6-5 favorite and the most likely early leader, having the rail in a field of eight.

Yet that all changed before the field reached the first turn in the 1 1/16-mile stakes when Joel Rosario took an aggressive approach with Concert Tour  and took the Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old to the front.

After that, Caddo River and jockey Florent Geroux chased but never caught Concert Tour as Baffert's horse won by 4 1/4 lengths and Shortleaf Stable's homebred Caddo River faded to fifth, 6 3/4 lengths behind.

So when Caddo River and Concert Tour tussle once again in the April 10 Arkansas Derby for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles, it should be no surprise if the early furlongs are contested with the same heated vigor as the final ones in the last major prep for the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

"Last time, we took Caddo River out of his game a little bit. He's still young, and we're trying to figure him out a little bit, but we believe he's probably going to be better when we just let him do his thing with a little more free-running as opposed to trying to have him sit off another horse," Cox said. "We'll take that approach in the Arkansas Derby. We'll be very aggressive getting away from the gate and establish a position and let him do his thing down the backside. There's no doubt Concert Tour is the main rival, and we tried to go with him, but he knocked us out at the three-eighths pole. We have to come up with a different game plan if we want a different result."

As much as an intense speed duel could change the complexion of the six-horse race at Oaklawn, Baffert knows there's little to gain from switching tactics that have worked so well in the undefeated runner's three victories with the Kentucky Derby three weeks away.

"I can't worry about that," the Hall of Fame trainer said about the probability of a speed duel. "Concert Tour is a fast horse and he's aggressive. Hopefully we can keep him at that level. The last prep is so important."

Gary West, who owns and bred the son of Street Sense   with his wife, Mary, believes Concert Tour will need to run faster and harder to keep his perfect record intact heading into the famed first Saturday in May.

"I think Caddo River is a nice horse. I thought Rosario caught (Geroux) off-guard. He thought he made the lead but Joel got the jump on him. I thought it looked like Caddo River resented running behind us. I think it will be a much better horse race this time. We'll have to run faster and harder than we did last time to beat him," said West, whose 3-year-old will break outside (post 5) of Caddo River (post 2) Saturday. "The good thing about Concert Tour is that he does not appear to need the lead to win a race. I  don't know this for a fact, but I believe he'll pass horses."

Concert Tour was a close third after the opening half-mile of his Feb. 6 victory in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2).

The son of the Tapit   mare Purse Strings heads into the Arkansas Derby in an enviable position from a different point of view. With 50 qualifying points thanks to the Rebel, he ranks 11th on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and has a spot in the 20-horse field wrapped up, regardless if he wins, loses, or draws Saturday. That's why West is hoping for something other than a draining race in his colt's final prep for the May 1 opening leg of the Triple Crown.

"I hope (Concert Tour) wins but he doesn't have to work hard in the process," West said. "I'm a big believer in the bounce theory. If they run a big race it takes something out of them. If you give them time, they will be OK. But here you're only getting three weeks before the Kentucky Derby. I hope he runs well but he doesn't run too well."

Of course, for Cox, if Caddo River, a homebred son of Hard Spun   out of the Congrats   mare Pangburn, and Concert Tour engage in a brutal battle, there is a silver lining.

"It's crossed my mind, I may not help Caddo River's cause but I may help (2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby favorite) Essential Quality  and Mandaloun 's," Cox said referring to two 3-year-olds in his barn who have already secured Kentucky Derby berths.

With only 10 qualifying points and the top four finishers receiving 100-40-20-10 points, Caddo River would most likely need a first or second to punch his ticket to Louisville.

"We'll see if he can swim in the deep end of the pool," Cox said about the 10 1/4-length winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes in January at Oaklawn.

A fast pace should also help Baffert's other entrant, Hozier , a son of Pioneerof the Nile who rallied from seventh in the Rebel to finish second in just his third career start and should appreciate the added distance in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby.

"Hozier could step up," said Baffert, who will be seeking a fourth Arkansas Derby win. "You want to see a good run from them in their last (prep). The distance will help him. The longer the better for him. He should be running at the end, and they'll be going pretty fast. A lot of things can happen."

Owned by SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm, and Robert Masterson, the $625,000 purchase from the Taylor Made Sales Agency's consignment at The Saratoga Sale, Fasig-Tipton's New York Sale of Select Yearlings, is 24th on the Leaderboard with 20 points and can crack the Kentucky Derby field with at least a third Saturday.

The rest of the field includes two more veterans of the Rebel in the grade 1-placed stakes-winning Super Stock  (fourth) and grade 1 winner Get Her Number  (seventh) as well as Last Samurai , who was fifth last time out in the Southwest Stakes (G3).

Entries: Arkansas Derby (G1)

Oaklawn Park, Saturday, April 10, 2021, Race 12

• Grade I
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $1,000,000
• 3 yo
• 6:41 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Super Stock (KY)	Ricardo Santana, Jr.	122	Steven M. Asmussen	6/1
2	2Caddo River (KY)	Florent Geroux	122	Brad H. Cox	7/2
3	3Hozier (KY)	Martin Garcia	118	Bob Baffert	3/1
4	4Get Her Number (KY)	Francisco Arrieta	122	Peter Miller	6/1
5	5Concert Tour (KY)	Joel Rosario	122	Bob Baffert	1/1
6	6Last Samurai (KY)	Jon Kenton Court	118	Dallas Stewart	15/1