Handicapping: Royal Ship in Californian, Other Plays

Oaklawn Park wraps up its Racing Festival Of the South series April 17 with a clash of champions when two-time champion Monomoy Girl  has a rematch with last year's top sophomore filly Swiss Skydiver  in the $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap (G1).

Monomoy Girl has crossed the wire first in 15 of 16 career starts and totes high weight of 124 pounds, two more than Swiss Skydiver, who is fresh off a big win in the Beholder Mile Stakes (G1) to begin her 4-year-old campaign. They will both have to catch Letruska , a graded stakes winner at three tracks since last summer.

By itself, the Apple Blossom isn't all that appealing from a wagering standpoint, but it is part of a pick four that begins with a competitive renewal of the $1 million Oaklawn Handicap (G2).

Elsewhere, the Californian Stakes (G2) is part of a stakes doubleheader at Santa Anita Park along with the Mizdirection Stakes for filly-and-mare turf sprinters. 

At Keeneland, a showery forecast means the Elkhorn Stakes (G2T) may be run over a turf course that already received a good deal of rain earlier in the week.

There's also a chance of rain at Aqueduct Racetrack, which cards the $200,000 Times Square division of the New York Stallion Series on the main track and the $100,000 Woodhaven Stakes for 3-year-old grass runners.

Let's go spanning the nation in chronological order, all times ET.

Times Square NYSS (Aqu, race 7, 4:44): You don't often see a maiden favored in a stakes race, but that will be the case when Sinful Dancer  (4) faces six rivals in this 6 1/2-furlong sprint.

He recorded the field's top figure first time out and did it despite brushing the side of the gate at the start, racing wide and rallying for second while neglecting to change leads. Moreover, that effort was without Lasix.

The only entrant to have won without Lasix is Market Alert  (5), who was edged for second by It's Gravy  (3) in the Great White Way division of the NYSS back on Dec. 6. Market Gravy returned from a layoff to garner his first-level allowance condition in an optional claimer Feb. 21 and now picks up meet-leading rider Jose Ortiz.

A — 4

B — 3, 5

Elkhorn (Kee, race 9, 5:30): Cross Border  (1), Say the Word  (2), and North Dakota  (7) all ran in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T) to kick off 2021. Cross Border had the best showing by finishing third with a late run but was then a beaten favorite in the Pan American (G2T) after giving futile chase to front-end winner Churn N Burn .

Say the Word has run well in two previous starts at Keeneland "off the page," beginning with a maiden win in April 2018, followed by a third in a salty allowance behind subsequent graded stakes winners Admission Office and Instilled Regard the following spring. The son of More Than Ready   finished well for second in the San Luis Rey (G2T) at this trip last out.

North Dakota traded decisions with Red Knight  (10) in a pair of three-turn events like this last fall, finishing a tough-trip fourth behind that foe in the Sycamore Stakes (G3T) after hitting the rail in midstretch, and turning the tables with an 8-1 upset in the Red Smith Handicap (G3T). 

Red Knight hasn't been out since being edged by a half-length in the Red Smith but ran a close second in the 2020 Elkhorn when similarly fresh. The son of Pure Prize  gets a switch back to James Graham, who rode him brilliantly to an off-the-pace score in the Sycamore two back.

Tide of the Sea  (6) looms the likely pacesetter and he has won twice from as many starts at Saturday's 1 1/2 miles, including the William L. McKnight Stakes (G3T) on the Pegasus undercard.

A — 7, 10

B — 1, 2, 6

Oaklawn Handicap (OP race 9, 5:49): Express Train  (2) has been on a forward-moving figure pattern since returning from an 11-month absence last summer—draw a line through the failed turf experiment in the Twilight Derby (G2T)—and should be well served by the cutback to nine furlongs after getting worn down near the wire in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). 

This is an easier assignment for the top-weighted Express Train, who romped in the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) at this distance in his penultimate outing.

Warrior's Charge  (4) led to the stretch and held for second in this race last year, and shakes out as the controlling speed once again. He had a useful prep off a six-month layoff when rated of the pace and wide throughout.

Silver State  (1) comes off wins in the Fifth Season and Essex Handicap earlier at the meet. The Hard Spun   colt seeks his fifth straight victory overall for Steve Asmussen, who also sends out Silver Prospector , a son of Declaration of War  who rode a deep and sloppy rail when second in the Razorback Handicap (G3) behind rising star Mystic Guide .

Fearless  (3) was sidelined for eight months and showed improved tactical speed taking the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G2) off the bench for Todd Pletcher.

A — 2, 4

B — 1, 3, 8

Californian (SA, race 8, 7:51): Only a handful entered this stepping stone to the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes (G1), yet there still may be some value to be had in the form of Royal Ship  (4), the fourth choice in a field of five.

The only North American graded stakes winners are morning-line favorite Independence Hall  (5) who captured the 2019 Nashua (G3) at 2 and is winless from four attempts at two turns; and Country Grammer  (3), who took the rescheduled Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at Saratoga Race Course for former trainer Chad Brown before finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1).

A $450,000 buy as a juvenile, Country Grammer was picked up for $110,000 by WinStar Farm from the Lane's End consignment at the Jan. 14 Keeneland Horses of All Ages Sale as part of the dispersal of the late Paul Pompa Jr.'s stock. He returns for new trainer Bob Baffert, who also entered Magic On Tap  (2), a lightly raced 5-year-old who recently won a preliminary allowance first time out since the fall of 2019.

Royal Ship, meanwhile, won a couple of group races in his native Brazil, and while he is 0 for 4 in the United States there have been extenuating circumstances. After two tough spots on turf behind Mo Forza  (a five-time winner at the grade 1/2 level), he stumbled badly at the start of the Nov. 21 Native Diver Stakes (G3) and nearly unseated Mike Smith, checked in last of four, and then got a freshening. In his return six weeks ago in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes (G1T), he broke with the leaders but lost all kinds of position getting taken back to the tail of the field, and came with a sharp final quarter-mile in :22.50 to wind up beaten a length for all the money.

A — 4

B — 3, 5

Best of luck. We shall resume these festivities in two weeks with a special Litfin At Large Oaks/Derby edition!