Derby Dozen: Hot Rod Charlie Ready to Hit Gas

1. Hot Rod Charlie  

Owner/Trainer: Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss/Doug O'Neill

Pedigree: Oxbow  —Indian Miss , by Indian Charlie  

Breeder: Edward A. Cox Jr. (KY)

His final pre-Derby breeze April 24 at Santa Anita Park reinforced the belief that this colt is a leading Derby contender. He easily pulled away from his workmate with six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 for two-time Derby winner Doug O'Neill. Spacing between starts this year leaves the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner as a fresh Derby horse, yet one with a racing foundation established at age 2. Those strengths hint of the potential for a mild Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) upset. 

2. Essential Quality  

Godolphin/Brad Cox

Tapit  —Delightful Quality , by Elusive Quality  

Godolphin (KY)

He has not amazed in his drills at Churchill leading up to the Derby. It is his race record that stands out. Last year's 2-year-old champ is 5-for-5. He finds ways to win even when in danger of losing. Showed determination in taking the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2)—a prep from which just one horse has won the Derby over the last 25 years, though 23 Derby winners have exited the Blue Grass over its entire history. Things to offer, well, except a wagering price.

3. Rock Your World  

Hronis Racing and Talla Racing/John Sadler

Candy Ride  —Charm the Maker , by Empire Maker  

Ron and Debbie McAnally (KY)

The withdrawal of the speedy Caddo River  from the Derby may benefit him as much as any Derby hopeful. Caddo River had been widely expected to lead early in the Derby—frontrunning tactics also utilized by this colt to win the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1). His Derby jockey, Joel Rosario, has been aggressive on speed horses in Derby preps this spring. Expecting Rosario to send, and for this colt to deliver a strong effort.

4. Known Agenda  

St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Curlin  —Byrama , by Byron 

St. Elias Stable (KY)

The Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1) winner exits a historically sound prep and has made a positive impression in his gallops at Churchill Downs. He required urging in his works at Churchill—the norm for him—but he is otherwise high energy with his day-to-day training. The bad news? He drew the fence in the Derby. Gotta go back to Ferdinand in 1986 to find the last winner from there.

5. Medina Spirit  

Zedan Racing Stables/Bob Baffert

Protonico  —Mongolian Changa , by Brilliant Speed  

Gail Rice (FL)

Having run second in his final two Derby preps, he is not generating the pre-Derby buzz as Bob Baffert trainees of years gone by. Some of that may also have to do with defections from Life Is Good  and Concert Tour  from the trainer's Derby arsenal. Regardless of his lack of hype, he warrants respect after finishing in the exacta in all five starts, including in the Santa Anita Derby.

6. Mandaloun  

Juddmonte Farms/Brad Cox

Into Mischief  —Brooch , by Empire Maker  

Juddmonte Farms (KY)

Arguably no one has trained better at Churchill Downs over the last couple of weeks than him, throwing down quick work after sharp work. A bounce-back appears in order from the Louisiana Derby, a race in which he was a no-response sixth. If he can produce the effort he put forth in winning the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), he can challenge. 

7. Midnight Bourbon  

Winchell Thoroughbreds/Steve Asmussen

Tiznow —Catch the Moon , by Malibu Moon    

Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings (KY)

Though he hasn't won since January when he took the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, his form remains sharp. He was third in the Risen Star and second in the Louisiana Derby, and he has been training since with enthusiasm. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen speaks favorably of this colt, and he is not one to give false praise.

8. Super Stock  

Erv Woolsey and Keith Asmussen, Keith/Steve Asmussen

Dialed In  —Super Girlie , by Closing Argument  

Pedro Gonzalez & P. J. Gonzalez (KY)

Though a grade 1 winner, he ranks behind his stablemate and others based on his overall body of work. The belief here is that everything fell into place for him in the Arkansas Derby (G1). This allowed him to benefit from a stalking trip behind dueling leaders Caddo River and Concert Tour—both of whom are passing the Derby for one reason or another. 

9. O Besos 

Bernard Racing, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds /Greg Foley 

Orb  —Snuggs And Kisses , by Soto 

L. Barrett Bernard (KY)

A deep closer, he is going to need some luck to get a clean late-running trip in the Derby. The Louisiana Derby third-place finisher would benefit from a contested pace and from being able to save at least a little ground, though not at the risk of getting stopped in traffic. Training exceptionally well, suggesting a performance at least as strong as his Louisiana Derby is on tap.

10. Highly Motivated  

Klaravich Stables/Chad Brown

Into Mischief—Strong Incentive , by Warrior's Reward   

Klaravich Stables (KY)

Trainer Chad Brown has seemed content in interviews this week, and he has good reason to be based on how this 3-year-old has moved over the Churchill Downs strip. The trainer is selective in what he brings to the Derby, and this colt, the Blue Grass runner-up, is giving off the right signals. Brown feels Highly Motivated is better with a target. Look for an up-close, but off-the-pace Derby trip.

11. Soup and Sandwich   

Live Oak Plantation/Mark Casse

Into Mischief—Souper Scoop , by Tapit  

Live Oak Stud (FL)

His works, far more so than his gallops, are the most attractive components of his training. The faster he goes, the better he travels. He is short on seasoning, having made just three starts, but he exits the right prep, the Florida Derby. It has produced 24 Derby winners, most of any prep, including three winners during the last decade. Had Maximum Security   not been disqualified for interference in 2019, it would have been four.

12. Dynamic One  

Repole Stable, Phipps Stable, and St. Elias Stable/Todd Pletcher

Union Rags  —Beat the Drums , by Smart Strike  

Phipps Stable (KY)

Not since 2003 has a competitor from the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2) won the Kentucky Derby. That year it was Funny Cide , who turned the tables on Empire Maker after losing to him in the Wood. This year's Wood did not appear to offer the best lineup of 3-year-olds, though this colt ran well with a wide second behind stablemate Bourbonic , who mostly saved ground.