Handicapping: Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks

After a COVID-crazy year, a sense of normalcy returns to the racing world when the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) is run on the first Saturday in May, a day before the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

The $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks is the last of six graded stakes Friday, April 30. It is preceded, in order, by the Alysheba Stakes Presented By Sentient Jet (G2), the Edgewood Stakes Presented By Newport Racing & Gaming (G2T), the La Troienne Stakes Presented By Twinspires.com (G1), the Eight Belles Stakes Presented By Smithfield (G2), and the Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes Presented By Sysco (G2T). NBCSN will televise the action from noon to 6 p.m. ET.

The $3 million Kentucky Derby is the last of seven graded stakes Saturday, May 1. Leading up to the 147th edition of the fabled Run For the Roses are the Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2T), the Derby City Distaff Stakes Presented By Kendall-Jackson Winery (G1), the Pat Day Mile Presented By LG&E and KU (G2), the American Turf Stakes Presented By Derby City Gaming (G2T), the Churchill Downs Stakes Presented By Ford (G1), and the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes (G1T). NBCSN kicks off the coverage from 12:30-2:30 p.m. before the switch to NBC from 2:30-7 p.m. ET.

Let's go over the ever popular $1 Oaks-Derby double!

Kentucky Oaks (Fri., CD, race 11, 5:51 p.m.): With the notable exception of Santa Anita Oaks (G2) winner Soothsay , anybody who's anybody in the 3-year-old filly division is here, which is to say the winners of the Fantasy Stakes (G3), Gazelle Stakes (G2), Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), and Central Bank Ashland Stakes (G1).

Malathaat  (10) is tabbed a slight favorite over Travel Column  (6) and Search Results  (12). Clairiere  (3) is the only other entrant at single-digit odds and all others are 15-1 or more.

It's a close call on the first three choices by the numbers. Malathaat was up to nail Pass the Champagne  (5) in the last strides of the Ashland; Search Results drew away late in the Gazelle; and Travel Column took the measure of Clairiere in the Fair Grounds Oaks. All earned comparable speed figures.

But while Malathaat and Search Results are both unbeaten and are also the only two entrants that have already won at nine furlongs, I believe Travel Column has the edge here.

Malathaat had to run hard in the Ashland. That was her first appearance since taking the Demoiselle Stakes (G2) nearly five months earlier, and now the $1.05 million (2019, Keeneland September Yearling Sale) daughter of Curlin   is coming back in 27 days. She will have to avoid a "bounce."

Search Results raced greenly winning her debut at six furlongs and then went to Aqueduct Racetrack to capture the Busher Invitational and Gazelle, neglecting to change leads in the stretch both times.

Meanwhile, Brad Cox seeks his third Oaks win in four years with Travel Column, who overcame trouble at the start and in the stretch to win the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) over Clairiere at Churchill Downs last fall. After getting run down by the latter off the bench in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented By Fasig-Tipton (G2), Travel Column turned the tables decisively in the Fair Grounds Oaks while Clairiere swapped back to her left lead rather awkwardly in deep stretch.

Crazy Beautiful  (4) also ran well on this track last fall when second in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3), and the gray filly by Liam's Map   will be third off the layoff after kicking clear in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, albeit with the aid of a closer-favoring bias.

A - 6

B - 10, 12

C - 3, 4, 5

Kentucky Derby (Sat., CD, race 12, 6:57 p.m.): Recently I had warmed to Known Agenda  (1), so naturally there was a sinking feeling when the burly Curlin   colt got the dreaded one-hole at the draw.

Upon further reflection, maybe it isn't the end of the world. True, there is over 90 years of history for Derby post positions since a conventional starting gate was first used in 1930, and while no one has won from the rail since Ferdinand (1986) or even finished in the money since Risen Star (third in 1988), bear in mind the current 20-stall gate was used for the first time when the 146th running took place last September.

So we really don't know how the elimination of the gap from the standard 14-horse gate and the auxiliary gate will change the overall dynamics. Last year Post 1 was much further off the rail than the previous set-up. 

And if you're on Known Agenda, consider that the four horses breaking closest to him are all 50-1 on the morning line, and one out from there is O Besos  (6), who has no early speed whatsoever. Plus which, the guy riding Known Agenda has been collecting Eclipse Awards lately, and trainer Todd Pletcher is fond of pointing out horses can get good trips from bad posts and bad trips from good posts.

Speaking of Pletcher, it's worth mentioning Known Agenda is a close pattern match to his most recent Derby winner Always Dreaming   (2017), who also won an N1X optional claimer and the Florida Derby, with the latter race producing his first noteworthy speed figure. Moreover, Known Agenda was inside and behind horses eating dirt through the early going of the Curlin Florida Derby Presented By Hill 'N' Dale Farms At Xalapa (G1) before switching out on the far turn and powering away in what was his fourth start at nine furlongs.

Bottom line, even though enthusiasm is somewhat tempered by the draw, I am not getting off the horse simply because of that.

Meanwhile, favored Essential Quality  (14) drew nicely—especially since there is no longer a gap between 14 and 15. It's hard to knock an unbeaten champ who has won on the track and can employ any running style depending on how things shake out early. What I will say, though, is that he was out in the best part of the track when brought back in a sloppy Southwest Stakes (G3), and then had to work harder than expected to run down Highly Motivated  (17) in the Toyota Blue Grass (G2).

To me there are just two other win candidates and one of them is not Highly Motivated, whose front-end try in the Blue Grass was his first going two turns and saw him switch back to his left lead in deep stretch. Highly Motivated did beat Known Agenda in a maiden sprint at Belmont Park last fall, but he is prone to trouble out of the gate and I question why such an astute trainer as Chad Brown would keep this son of Into Mischief   in one-turn races for his first four starts before finally venturing to two turns in the Blue Grass. Because of that and the bottom side of his pedigree, I have reservations about him at a mile and a quarter.

Hot Rod Charlie  (9) and Rock Your World  (15) are the main backups.

Since adding blinkers and going two turns on dirt, Hot Rod Charlie is approximately a length away from being unbeaten in four starts, having run a close second to Essential Quality in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) and returning in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) to run a close third after stumbling at the start and being bumped in midstretch between horses. He followed with a front-end score in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2), and will now try to give trainer Doug O'Neill a third Derby triumph. Like Essential Quality, he can sit close or rally from off the pace.

Rock Your World emulates 2018 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown winner Justify  , who also won the Santa Anita Derby in just his third lifetime start.

Rock Your World's first two starts were on turf, which brings to mind the brilliant 2006 Derby winner Barbaro, who began his career winning three grass races. Many other high-profile grass horses, too numerous to mention, have also ran well on the main track at Churchill Downs down through the years. And of course, Joel Rosario abandoned Hot Rod Charlie in favor of this lightly raced son of Candy Ride  .

We shall see. Rock Your World remains unclassified. Will he take kickback if need be? Why was he tardy in changing leads into the stretch and why did he swap back to his left lead late in the Santa Anita Derby? The draw alleviates those fears to some degree, but, things can change in a heartbeat out of the gate.

For trifecta and superfecta fillers, the aforementioned O Besos is an obvious inclusion to be picking up some pieces late.

As a potential price underneath, Like the King  (2), may not prove to be the second coming of 2011 Spiral (now Jeff Ruby Steaks, G3) winner Animal Kingdom, but overall he exhibits a forward-moving pattern of development and Wesley Ward has gotten this son of Palace Music  to ration his natural speed.

A - 1, 14

B - 9, 15

C - 2, 6, 17