Handicapping: Preakness, Black-Eyed Susan and More

With enthusiasm obviously dampened greatly by the untimely and well-documented goings-on of the past few days, we shall keep calm and handicap onward through the middle jewel of the Triple Crown and its accompanying stakes races May 14-15 at Pimlico Race Course.

Friday's all-stakes Rainbow 6 sequence begins with the Allaire duPont Distaff Match Series Stakes (G3) and finishes with the Pimlico Special Match Series Stakes (G3) and George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2).

The Black-Eyed Susan is the first half of a two-day double-linked to Saturday's Preakness Stakes (G1), which climaxes another all-stakes Rainbow 6 that goes through the James W. Murphy Stakes, Runhappy Skipat Stakes, Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes, Maryland Sprint Match Series Stakes (G3), and Dinner Party Stakes (G2T).

FRIDAY

Pimlico Special (Pim, race 12, 5:12 ET): Modernist  (1), Fearless  (2), and Last Judgment  (11) are the first three choices on the morning line, and, coincidentally or not, they are the only three entrants that have won without Lasix, having respectfully captured the Excelsior Stakes (G3), Winstar Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G2), and Sunshine Classic Stakes earlier this year.

Modernist has come back faster at age 4 than he was at 3. Fearless takes a class drop after grinding out a close second in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) behind the streaking Silver State , who has won five straight. Last Judgment, vastly improved since stretched out off a claim by Mike Maker, has enough of a run to the first turn to clear for the early lead.

The price plays are Max Player  (5), who has been in over his head in five grade 1 races since taking the Withers Stakes (G3) in early 2020; and Prioritize  (6), who makes his first start since running four pretty fast races through the second half of last year.

A - 2, 6

B - 1, 11

C - 5

Black-Eyed Susan (Pim race 13, 5:44 ET): Every last one of the 10 sophomore fillies in this event emerge from career-top figures or, in the case of The Grass Is Blue  (8), Adventuring  (9), and Beautiful Gift  (10), they come off paired tops.

Beautiful Gift is the lone graded stakes winner in the lineup, having eked out a triumph in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) in early March. She is the 9-5 favorite off a close second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) when outgamed by Soothsay , who was coming in directly off a maiden debut victory.

Beautiful Gift has been in three straight four-horse fields, and she doesn't have enough of an edge by the numbers to justify strong favoritism from the far outside.

We will do a work-around and key on Army Wife  (1) and Adventuring (9), and include Iced Latte  (6) and The Grass Is Blue (8) as backups, too.

Army Wife has posted consecutive top figures to start the season, the latest when a troubled third in the Gazelle Stakes (G3) on a laboriously slow surface at Aqueduct Racetrack when checked sharply in midstretch and able to regroup to edge The Grass Is Blue for third.

Iced Latte and Adventuring are a couple of well-connected fillies by Pioneerof the Nile, and they are both out of grade 1-winning mares on the New York circuit.

A - 1, 9

B - 6, 8, 10

SATURDAY

Dinner Party (Pim, race 12, 5:38 ET): Eight older turf runners entered the Dinner Party (formerly the Dixie), headed by the Chad Brown-trained favorite Sacred Life  (5).

The half-full view for Sacred Life is that he drops from a decent third in the Maker's Mark Mile Stakes (G1T) first out in seven months. The half-empty view is that he won his first three starts at age 2 in 2017 capped by a group 3 stakes but is winless from eight subsequent attempts in group/graded stakes company.

The Dinner Party is not an especially deep race considering its grade 2 status, so we're also keying on English Bee  (2), beaten a length in the 2020 Maker's Mark Mile while running his final quarter-mile in about :22.

English Bee won four times in 2019, notably the James W. Murphy on this course, and also the Virginia Derby (G3T). While he was blanked from seven starts last year, he managed to record several figures that put him in the thick of things for trainer Graham Motion.

Somelikeithotbrown  (1) vied between horses through a torrid early pace when returned from a layoff in the Maker's Mark Mile and now shakes out as the inside speed. Of potential significance is the fact that the New York-bred son of Big Brown   is 4-for-4 when making the second start of a form cycle, and two of those victories came right after off-the-board finishes.

The European import Talk Or Listen  (6) disappointed in his first two starts in the United States last year, but has shown improved rating ability and late speed in three outings at age 5.

A - 2, 5

B - 1, 6

Preakness (Pim, race 13, 6:47 ET): Only three horses from the Kentucky Derby run back in the Preakness—first-place finisher and morning-line choice Medina Spirit  (3); sixth-place finisher Midnight Bourbon  (5); and seventh-place finisher Keepmeinmind  (2).

Along with Medina Spirit, trainer Bob Baffert also entered second-choice Concert Tour  (10), who was exposed in the Arkansas Derby (G1) when he bid for the lead in the stretch but faded to third as the 3-10 favorite under Joel Rosario. After giving up the lead in deep stretch, Mike Smith is given the mount on Concert Tour in the Preakness.

Rosario winds up on outsider France Go de Ina  (7), who is ostensibly prepping here for a run at the $1 million bonus dangled for any Japan-based horse who wins the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Both of Baffert's horses do their best running on the front end. Medina Spirit is a plucky type who has never finished worse than second, but he caught some major breaks in the Derby when one potential pace rival, Rock Your World , had a rough start, and another, Midnight Bourbon, was passively handled passing the stands for the first time after a troubled break and never given a realistic chance to get involved early.

Midnight Bourbon, who had never been more than a couple lengths from the lead in seven prior races, found himself double-digits behind early and ran on admirably to wind up sixth. He will assuredly be in closer touch to the pace with a switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. and has demonstrated an inclination to stalk and pounce.

Chad Brown entered two for Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stable that exit the Wood Memorial Presented By Resorts World Casino (G2), third finisher Crowded Trade  (4), and beaten favorite Risk Taking  (9), who wound up seventh.

For those who fancy trainer-pattern matches, Crowded Trade is a virtual clone of Brown's 2017 Preakness winner (at 13-1) Cloud Computing   in several aspects: Both won their debuts at Aqueduct in the winter, followed by second-place finishes in the Gotham and third-place finishes in the Wood, and they then received a switch to Javier Castellano at Pimlico.

I'm not sure what to make of Risk Taking after an empty effort in the Wood, but he won twice at nine furlongs when blinkers came on prior to that.

A - 4, 5

B - 3, 10

C - 9