Linger around racehorse stables, particularly those with talented young prospects, and it's not uncommon to hear someone optimistically utter, "That's our Derby horse."
Brad Cox, last year's Eclipse Award-winning trainer who has one of the most high-powered barns in the country, isn't immune from such bullish thinking. Last summer, as he watched a Tapit 2-year-old gray at Keeneland, he found himself looking ahead to the Triple Crown, though not the first leg, but the last. Cox observed Godolphin's homebred Essential Quality and called him his Belmont horse.
Now Essential Quality is only one of the eight 3-year-olds in the June 5 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) and also the 2-1 morning-line favorite to win the 1 1/2-mile Test of the Champion.
Win and Cox might have his Babe Ruth "called shot" moment—when the legendary New York Yankees slugger belted a home run in game 3 of the 1932 World Series after gesturing toward the center field area.
Regarding the Belmont reference, "I've said that about a lot of horses, probably," Cox said, laughing. "This happens to be one of the few times—the only time—I've had a Belmont horse.
"But he displayed a lot of stamina early on. You could kind of see he was a horse that would stay on. And obviously Tapit has had a tremendous amount of success in this race. Kind of was dreaming a little bit. Sometimes dreams come true. We'll see what happens Saturday."
WATCH: Cox Quickly Saw Distance Potential in Essential Quality
A pipe dream, it's not. Unbeaten in three starts in 2020, including a victory in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1), Essential Quality was honored as the champion 2-year-old male of last year. The start of his 3-year-old season continued just as auspiciously, resulting in a blowout victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn Park, followed by a gritty Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) victory at Keeneland.
Only in the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) at Churchill Downs, coming in his sixth career start, did the Godolphin colt lose for the first time. Bumping with Rock Your World early, he recovered to race within a few lengths of the pace, only to get hung four to five wide for most of the race and settle for fourth.
In his one-length defeat in the 19-horse Derby, he covered 68 more feet than first-across-the-wire finisher Medina Spirit , according to the data company Trakus.
"The Derby is the Derby," said Jimmy Bell, president of Godolphin USA. "It is a unique race with a lot of contenders, and I think you'll find some have to work out a different trip than others, and that was a trip that wasn't what we hoped for. But that's racing, and that's the Derby. That's what it is."
Hot Rod Charlie , the top finisher of five Derby starters that return in the Belmont, raced 45 fewer feet than Essential Quality and was a head in front of him for the show position as Essential Quality attempted to close the gap.
"At the Derby at the eighth pole, I could tell he wasn't going to get there, but if you watch the last four or five jumps, he's coming at them again," Cox said last week during a National Thoroughbred Racing Association conference call. "So he's a horse that has been able to stay on in a lot of races and (have) impressive gallop outs.
"He's really trained forward, and he maybe seems to have moved forward physically since the Kentucky Derby, which obviously is the sign of a good horse. A mile and a quarter is a lot for a 3-year-old in the first part of May, and he definitely hasn't went the wrong way physically at all. Real happy with what we've seen since the Derby and it gives us enough confidence to move forward and pursue the Belmont."
Though the Derby outcome was not what he wanted for Essential Quality, Cox still came away feeling good about the colt's performance and the one turned in from his other runner, Juddmonte's Mandaloun . Second across the wire, Mandaloun is expected to be declared the Kentucky Derby winner after two test results from the Bob Baffert-trained Medina Spirit showed the prohibited presence of the corticosteroid betamethasone. Kentucky stewards will issue a ruling after a hearing.
Essential Quality, who would move up to third upon a testing disqualification, has a pedigree that suggests he could get back on track in the Belmont. Tapit, the leading sire of 2014, 2015, and 2016, sired Belmont Stakes winners Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), and Tapwrit (2017).
A homebred for Godolphin, the global Thoroughbred breeding and racing operation of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Essential Quality has speed influences on the female side of his family. His dam, the Elusive Quality mare Delightful Quality , placed in seven stakes, once in graded company when third in the seven-furlong Bed o' Roses Handicap (G3). She also raced for Sheikh Mohammed under his Darley Stable banner.
Though Sheikh Mohammed has not yet won the Belmont, one of his stable's runners, Godolphin's Frosted , another son of Tapit, ran second to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015. Godolphin's three other runners were unplaced, the best finish a fourth from Incognito in 2013.
Bernardini , a Darley Stable-owned colt, gave Sheikh Mohammed his lone victory in a Triple Crown race when he took the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1). Bernardini later added the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park before being retired to stud at Darley America.
"Sheikh Mohammed's breeding plans really center around two-turn, classic type of horses," Bell said. "That's really more of the overall program here with a lot of the Bernardini mares now, and just that whole side of it.
"And we've had success with Tapit. We had success with Frosted, who ran a very nice race in the Belmont, as well. That's a cross that has worked well for Sheikh Mohammed's mares, and (they) have also been able to see out the two turns in many of his offspring."
The Godolphin team had hoped to run two horses in the Belmont, sending Rebel's Romance to Belmont Park from overseas. But after training in New York since mid-May, the Dubawi gelding was not entered in the Belmont due to an infection in a hind leg, Godolphin tweeted June 1. The Charlie Appleby trainee had previously won the March 27 UAE Derby Sponsored by Emirates NBD (G2) in Dubai.
So Essential Quality solely carries Godolphin's colors in the Belmont. A victory would place him back in the Eclipse Award conversation.
"Champion 2-year-old, hopefully, we can somehow work out a path to where he could be champion 3-year-old as well," Cox said.