Handicapping: Belmont Stakes Racing Festival

The Triple Crown trail comes to an end on Long Island this weekend when the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival unfolds with 17 stakes races beginning Thursday, June 3, and climaxing with the 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) Saturday, June 5, at Belmont Park.

All told, 15 graded stakes will be contested during the three-day span.

On Saturday, the "Test Of the Champion" will be preceded by seven other grade 1 stakes as well as the storied Brooklyn Presented By Northwell Health (G2). Among Saturday's grade 1 events are a trio of "Win & You're In" races for this year's Breeders' Cup World Championships at Del Mar: The Jackpocket Jaipur Stakes (G1T), the Ogden Phipps (G1), and the Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan Handicap (G1). Other highlights are the Woody Stephens Stakes Presented By Nassau County Industrial Development Agency (G1), the Acorn Stakes (G1), the Longines Just a Game Stakes (G1T), and the Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes (G1T).

Friday's five-stakes card is highlighted by the New York Stakes (G2T) and the Belmont Gold Cup Stakes (G2T). The New York is linked with the Met Mile in a two-day double wager, while the Gold Cup  is the first half of a double with the Belmont.

Some rain Thursday was expected to linger overnight and into Friday morning, with temperatures warming to near 90 by Saturday.

FRIDAY

New York Stakes (Bel, race 9, 5:15 ET): With the exception of Traipsing  (10), who led to deep stretch of the Long Island Stakes (G3T) last fall, every entrant has captured at least one graded stakes, headed by grade 1 winners Magic Attitude  (1), Harvey's Lil Goil  (5), and Civil Union  (6).

That being said, this accomplished group doesn't boast a lot of compelling form on rain-softened turf, so the lean is to the foreign-bred runners who have had some positive experience with non-firm ground overseas, those being Magic Attitude, Virginia Joy  (2), Thundering Nights  (9), and to a lesser extent Mutamakina  (11), who will be a big price for red-hot trainer Christophe Clement.

In two starts on Belmont's inner course, Magic Attitude won the Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1T) in her United States debut last fall, and the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (G2T) earlier at the current meet.

The lightly raced Virginia Joy was a group 3 winner on good turf in her native Germany, and she comes off an impressive stateside debut over this course in early spring.

The Irish import Thundering Nights makes her U.S. bow after a solid second at The Curragh behind Broome , who is now 3-for-3 this season after coming right back to win the Coolmore Sottass Irish EBF Mooresbridge Stakes (G2).

Mean Mary  (7) romped wire to wire in a softer edition of the New York last year, and figures to be occupied with Traipsing through the early going.

A - 1, 2, 9

B - 5, 7, 11

SATURDAY

Just a Game (Bel, race 8, 3:58 ET): Chad Brown is closing in on 100 graded stakes wins at Belmont, and his 97 such victories heading into this week include the last four editions of this one-mile turf race for fillies and mares.

Brown has them coming and going with four of the 12 entered in this field, with Blowout  (11) expected to set the pace and the trio of Regal Glory  (4), Pocket Square  (6), and Tamahere  (10) giving chase.

Pocket Square, a Juddmonte Farms homebred, closed impressively to win a two-other-than allowance at Keeneland first time on this side of the Atlantic Ocean. The daughter of Night of Thunder  is a pattern match to Brown's 2017 Just a Game winner Antonoe , who launched her U.S. career precisely the same way for Juddmonte.

Tamahere was keen chasing front-end winner Juliet Foxtrot  in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley (G1T) first time out this year, but can revert to her preferred rate-and finish tactics in this matchup.

Charles Appleby, who has compiled a 5-for-15 record with U.S. horses for Godolphin, sends out Althiqa  (8) and Summer Romance  (9), a couple of classy-looking gray fillies who traded decisions in Dubai over the winter.

A - 6, 10

B - 8, 9, 11

Met Mile (Bel, race 9, 4:42 ET): Following the announcement in mid-May that Charlatan  had been taken out of training, By My Standards  (5) and Knicks Go  (6) were re-routed from the May 31 Steve Sexton Mile Stakes (G3) to await this more prestigious affair.

Knicks Go was outdueled by Charlatan in the Saudi Cup (G1) and faded to fourth, snapping a four-race win streak since transferred to Brad Cox, a run that included scores in the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1).

Knicks Go is the 6-5 favorite breaking outside against five foes, and I'm taking a shot against him in this spot. The horse that ran second to him in the Dirt Mile and the Pegasus, Jesus' Team , has never won a graded stake (0 for 6), and after a long trip to the Middle East and back he shoulders top weight, and also tries to win around one turn for the first time in his career.

Mischevious Alex  (1) has been on a major roll since changing barns, too, having won three straight for Saffie Joseph Jr. capped by the Carter Handicap (G1) with the fastest Beyer Speed Figure (109) recorded by any horse thus far in 2021.

Silver State  (3) has won five in a row for Steve Asmussen at distances ranging from seven to nine furlongs, yet the versatile son of Hard Spun   will be no better than third choice and may offer some value. Asmussen won this race in 2018 with Bee Jersey  , who was winning his fourth consecutive race, and he won it again the following year with Mitole  , who was winning his seventh straight, so Silver State is likely to maintain his excellent current form.

Dr Post  (2) ran respectably against the likes of Authentic  , Tiz the Law  , and Mystic Guide  as a 3-year-old. The Quality Road   colt had a good tightener taking the Westchester Stakes (G3) first time out at 4 for Todd Pletcher, who sent out Quality Road to win the 2010 edition of the Met and also won it with Palace Malice   in 2014.

A - 1, 3

B - 2

Belmont Stakes (Bel, race 11, 6:49 ET): Five of the eight entrants last raced in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), and that has been a very productive angle in the Belmont since the turn of the century. Moreover, horses that finished off the board in the Derby have rebounded on a regular basis, notably two Pletcher-trained winners, Palace Malice   (2013) and Tapwrit   (2017).

Known Agenda  (6) is the best of Pletcher's three hopefuls in this group. We liked him in Louisville in spite of his rail draw, and we're staying aboard after watching him get shuffled back first time through the stretch to basically lose all chance in a race where no one mounted a meaningful rally from off the pace.

Along with Known Agenda we're keying Essential Quality  (2), who suffered his first defeat when fourth in the Derby while arguably running the best race of his life. After bumping solidly with probable pacestter Rock Your World  (7) at the break, Essential Quality was five wide throughout the running, traveling 68 feet more that first-place finisher Medina Spirit , according to data from Trakus.

Essential Quality seeks to become the fourth Belmont winner for his sire Tapit   following victories by Tonalist   (2014), Creator  (2016), and Tapwrit (2017). During that stretch, Tapit also sired runners-up Frosted   (2015) and Tacitus  (2019).

In backup mode are Rombauer  (3) and Hot Rod Charlie  (4).

Rombauer exploded onto the scene winning the Preakness Stakes (G1) in a sharp 1:53.62. Not counting Swiss Skydiver  (1:53.28), who won in 2020 as an October 3-year-old, Rombauer's Preakness time was the fastest since Curlin   (1:53.46) in 2007. There was nothing phony about the effort, either, as he raced between horses through the opening mile and uncorked a huge finish to overpower the leaders.

Rombauer loses Flavien Prat—he had already committed to ride Hot Rod Charlie back following his gutsy third in the Derby—but picks up Hall of Famer John Velazquez, a two-time Belmont winner.

Hot Rod Charlie, an admirably consistent son of 2013 Belmont runner-up Oxbow  , figures to get first run on Rock Your World heading around the far turn. He recorded his first triple-digit Beyer in the Derby and has never taken a backward step by the numbers.

A - 2, 6

B - 3, 4

C - 7