Betting the Spiral on a $20 Budget

Metaboss, pictured winning last month's El Camino Real Derby, ships east for the Spiral but there's a longshot who could provide an upset. (Photo by Vassar Photography)
If there has been a recurring theme with this year’s Kentucky Derby prep races, it’s been that favorites have dominated the action. That could change in Saturday’s $550,000, Grade 3 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. There’s no overwhelming favorite going into the race, as indicated by the fact that no horse is listed at odds under 7-to-2 on the morning line.
As for those favorites, Royal Son is expected to be one of the shorter-priced horses when they break from the starting gate. He comes off a freakish 5 1/4-length win in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway on Feb. 28. His 97 Beyer Speed Figure in that race is far and away the strongest of any number posted by any horse in this field.
On the downside, Royal Son set a fairly slow pace on the front end in the Battaglia, whereas he'll very likely face more pace pressure up front in the Spiral from speedster Watchyourownbobber.
Additionally, since that aforementioned speed figure was some 22 points higher than his previous career top, I’d expect to see a little bit of a bounce - a regression - that typically follows an uncharacteristically strong, and most likely taxing, race. I'm playing against him.
ROYAL SON WINS THE BATTAGLIA

Photo by Coady Photography
Metaboss is another one who figures to take a fair amount of action coming off of a going-away victory in the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby last out. In that race, several horses contested the pace, including returning foe Conquest Typhoon, as Metaboss was reserved early and rallied late for the win. I don’t really see too much not to like about Metaboss, but I feel like he got a pretty nice setup in the El Camino Real and he did what he was supposed to do.
A repeat of that effort gets him on the board, at the very least, but I actually like Conquest Typhoon a lot more in this spot. Conquest Typhoon was way wide throughout while up on the pace in the El Camino Real Derby and still hung around for show money. If Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith can get him to settle, while saving a bit more ground behind the pacesetters in this one, I’d expect that he’ll have a lot to say late.
Ultimately, my selection in the Spiral is longshot Wireless Future. This horse blew away allowance-level horses by seven lengths in his most recent race, and he has the pedigree to relish this 1 1/8-mile distance on the synthetic surface at Turfway. Jockey Florent Geroux, who scores at a 40% clip for trainer Tom Amoss, sticks here for the class test. I like the fact that he’s a second-flight stalker and figures to sit a dream trip from the four hole behind dueling pacesetters. He’s 12-to-1 on the morning line and, if you can get that price, the play might just be a large win and place bet.
Lastly, I’d include two other horses on your exotic tickets: Another Lemon Drop and Firespike. The former broke his maiden at this distance on the turf and has been screaming out for more distance. He’s extremely dangerous with the right trip here. As for Firespike, he’s a colt by 2005 Spiral winner Flower Alley and is trained by Mike Maker, who has won this race twice. Additionally, he had a brutally wide trip in the Battaglia and still battled late to end up in a photo finish for fourth. Firespike could easily work his way into the exacta at a huge price.
Selections
#4 Wireless Future, #5 Another Lemon Drop, #9 Conquest Typhoon, #11 Metaboss, #10 Firespike
$20 Betting Strategies
Strategy A
$10 Win/Place: #4 Wireless Future ($20)
Strategy B
$2 exacta: 4 with 5, 9, 10, 11, 12 ($10)
$2 exacta: 5, 9, 10, 11, 12 with 4 ($10)
Strategy C
$.50 trifecta 4, 5 with 4, 5, 9, 10, 11 with 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12 ($20)
$550,000 Grade 3 Spiral StakesSaturday, Turfway Park, Race 11 at 6:28 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles on the all-weather track 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M/L

1

Royal Son

Rodney Prescott

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm LLC

7-2

2

Big Family

Albin Jimenez

Gustavo Delgado

Grupo 7C Racing Stable

30-1

3

Watchyourownbobber

Rajiv Maragh

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

20-1

4

Wireless Future

Florent Geroux

Tom Amoss

Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence

12-1

5

Another Lemon Drop

Drayden Van Dyke

Philip Bauer

Rigney Racing LLC

6-1

6

Imperia

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

Godolphin Racing LLC, Lessee

4-1

7

Magic of Believing

Shane Laviolette

Kenny McPeek

Turf Stable LLC and Magdalena Racing

20-1

8

Task Force Glory

Rafael Hernandez

Mike Maker

Ken and Sarah Ramsey

30-1

9

Conquest Typhoon

Mike Smith

Mark Casse

Conquest Stables LLC

5-1

10

Firespike

Miguel Mena

Mike Maker

Skychai Racing LLC, Charles Kevin Warner, and Sand Dollar Stable LLC

20-1

11

Metaboss

Alex Solis

Jeff Bonde

J.M. Arndt, M.N. McFetridge, D. Preiss, M. Metanovic and C. Azcarate

4-1

12

Dubai Sky

Jose Lezcano

Bill Mott

Three Chimneys Farm and Besilu Stables

8/1