Handicapping: Salvator Mile, Mint Julep in Focus

The transition from spring to summer yields a relatively light slate of stakes action June 12 with the Salvator Mile Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park and the Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes (G3T) at Churchill Downs the only graded events on the calendar. 

Scattered around the rest of the country are a trio of state-bred contests: the Dancin Renee Stakes for New York-bred fillies and mares at Belmont Park; the Thor's Echo Stakes for California-bred turf sprinters at Santa Anita Park; and the Ginger Punch Stakes for Florida-bred distaffers on grass at Gulfstream Park.

We have three potential points of interest listed in chronological order.

Salvator Mile (Mth, race 10, 4:28 ET): I like being a wise guy as much as the next handicapper, but this looks like a good spot for morning-line favorite Ny Traffic  (7) to earn some overdue black type. Following three in-the-money finishes in graded stakes during the first half of his 3-year-old season, the gray son of Cross Traffic ran eventual Horse of the Year Authentic   to a nose photo when in the TVG.com Haskell (G1) on this track. He regressed off that effort and finished off the board in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Preakness Stakes (G1), but looked sharp when brought back from a freshening to win a sprint tune-up at Belmont.

Perhaps there is some value to be found by excluding Pirate's Punch  (10) and Bal Harbour  (3), who were respectively first and third in this race last year. Pirate's Punch subsequently came out of the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) with a chipped knee that required surgery, and he breaks from the far outside with a short run to the first turn. Bal Harbour, who was third in the 2019 Salvator Mile too, went 0 for 12 the past two years and it seems like his best days are behind him.

We're focusing on the ultra-consistent Galerio  (1), along with Jerry Hollendorfer's duo of Green Light Go  (4) and Croatian  (6) to fill out vertical exotic wagers.

Galerio gets a class check but is a hard-knocking sort who has won or placed in 20 of 24 starts. He is currently in the best form of his life and will save all the ground, breaking from the rail.

Hollendorfer has gotten off to a good start at Monmouth with horses who wintered at Oaklawn Park. Green Light Go, who won the 2019 Saratoga Special Stakes (G2), ran three improved figures at the Hot Springs oval capped by a front-end score in his second try going two turns. Croatian is a proven router and was clearly just out for a speed sharpener when brought back in a 5 1/2-furlong dash first time back from a layoff, a race in which he galloped out well in front of the field.

A — 7

B — 1, 4, 6

Ginger Punch (GP, race 10, 5:02 ET): If they ran this race 10 times it's likely that many of the nine entrants would be capable of winning, as evidenced by the fact that Lovely Luvy  (2), Sun Summers  (3), Mo of the West  (4), and Bienville Street  (8) were separated by less than a length when the latter took the Sunshine Filly & Mare Turf back in January.

We're keying on two relatively new players in the division, Shifty She  (1) and Summering  (9).

Shifty She led to deep stretch first time out for Saffie Joseph Jr. when brought back from a 13-month absence, and improved off that effort to win the Powder Break Stakes with a stalking trip.

Summering was a game winner of the Pleasant Acres Stallions Distaff Turf Stakes in her lone outing this season at Tampa Bay Downs. She has been idle for 11 weeks, but it's worth noting that trainer Tom Proctor sent out three local grass winners from May 22-28, all of which were either first or second time back from lengthy layoffs. Moreover, Summering is 3-for-3 in her career when beginning a form cycle in routes.

A — 1, 9

B — 2, 3, 4, 8

Mint Julep (CD, race 9, 10:11 ET): After a rainy week in Louisville the turf course will have all day to dry out, as first post isn't until 6 p.m. for an under-the-lights program.

Juliet Foxtrot  (2) looks imposing for Brad Cox as the lone graded stakes winner in the lineup. But the Juddmonte homebred had everything her own way controlling a moderate tempo in the Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T) in her only appearance thus far at age 6 and will get sterner pace pressure here from Flash n' Dance  (7) and Crystal Ball  (9). What's more, Juliet Foxtrot disappointed twice on this layout in 2020, beginning with a sixth-place finish at 8-5 in this same event.

We're using Juliet Foxtrot defensively, and trying to get alive in multi-race wagers with any among Hendy Woods  (3), Dominga  (6), Sister Hanan  (10), or She'sonthewarpath  (11).

Hendy Woods looped the field to win the Indiana Grand Stakes last summer on yielding turf and was then clearly second best to 3-5 choice Sharing  in the Edgewood Stakes Presented by Forcht Bank (G2T) on a Churchill course rated good. She is on a promising form pattern after matching her best 3-year-old numbers first time out at age 4.

Dominga is Brad Cox's other entrant and may be overlooked. The Ghostzapper   filly is third back from a layoff and comes off a stamina-building effort in the 1 1/2-mile Bewitch Stakes (G3T).

Sister Hanan also cuts back in distance, and the daughter of Orb   did not get to use her preferred rate-and-finish tactics when put on the early lead in the Orchid Stakes (G3T). She is 2-for-2 at the Mint Julep's 1 1/16-mile trip, notably an allowance win locally with similar spacing between starts.

She'sonthewarpath was a close fourth in the 2020 Mint Julep, and she ran well on rain-softened ground when second in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Stakes two starts later. The daughter of Declaration of War  had a good speed tightener going 5 1/2 furlongs first out this year.

A — 3, 6, 10, 11

B — 2