If you believe nailing a Pick 6 is an arduous task, try predicting how racing luck is doled out.
Take, for example, what happened June 13 in the $147,500 TVG.com Pegasus Stakes for 3-year-olds at Monmouth Park.
Six weeks earlier, in the demolition derby known as the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), Juddmonte Farm's Mandaloun faced 18 rivals and had a pretty smooth trip at 26-1 odds in finishing second—for now.
So, fast forward to Sunday, where Mandaloun was a 3-10 favorite over just four rivals in the Pegasus.
Even with such a miniscule field, shortly after the starting gates opened, Mandaloun and jockey Florent Geroux were bumped and squeezed back between the horses inside and outside of them and found themselves a very unexpected last passing the finish line the first time.
"We didn't expect that," trainer Brad Cox said. "We thought we'd be tracking the leader or on the lead and we were last. We faced 18 horses and had a great trip in the Derby. Then we come here, face four horses, and we had trouble. That's why they call it racing luck and that's why they run the race."
By running the race Sunday, it did indeed allow the class and talent in the homebred son of Into Mischief to come to the fore as the heavy favorite overcame the poor start to grab the lead leaving the three-sixteenths pole. From there, with Geroux unable to use his riding crop due to controversial New Jersey regulations, it wasn't easy, but Mandaloun managed to beat grade 3 winner Weyburn by a neck in a highly beneficial prep for an expected return engagement July 17 in the $1 million TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1) at the Jersey Shore track.
"He ran a big race, though he was kind of looking around late," Cox said, "but we're proud of the effort. He responded when he was asked (by Geroux)."
If all goes well and Mandaloun returns to Monmouth for the Haskell, there could be a different look to his past performances next month.
After all, as the runner-up in the Run for the Roses, he is the 3-year-old who would benefit the most if Medina Spirit is ultimately disqualified after post-race tests revealed a banned substance in the Derby winner's system.
But regardless of whether he returns as the Kentucky Derby winner or runner-up, Sunday's performance illustrated that the fluke in Mandaloun's résumé was not when he was second in the Run for Roses at big odds. Rather, it was that March afternoon when he was a still inexplicable sixth at 6-5 odds in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2).
With a record of four wins, a second, and a third in seven career starts, he figures to be a very tough customer in the Haskell and a main contender in the battle for the 3-year-old title along with stablemate and division leader Essential Quality , who won the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) and was fourth in the Kentucky Derby for Cox and Godolphin.
"I just wanted to give him a good education," Geroux said, "and this was the perfect race for that. I wasn't concerned when he was last because he was nice and relaxed, and he finished strongly. He is catching up with everything mentally and physically. He handled the track pretty well, so I am excited about the Haskell."
Breaking from post 2 in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus, Mandaloun exited the gate smoothly but then was bumped and steadied when Brooklyn Strong inside of him and Dr Jack from the outside showed more speed.
"In the Derby he was 26-1 and here he was 3-10 so the target is on your back," Geroux said. "Everyone is trying to take a shot at you at the start."
With Mandaloun, who was no worse than fourth at each call after the opening quarter-mile in the Kentucky Derby, back in fifth after a half-mile in a moderate :48.61, Chiefswood Stables' Weyburn worked out a great trip, sitting second, a half-length behind 44-1 pacesetter Lugamo .
Weyburn, an Ontario-bred son of Pioneerof the Nile, grabbed the lead through six furlongs in 1:12.41, though outside of him Mandaloun ($2.60) was building up momentum. The favorite grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch but with Geroux restricted to using his riding crop only for safety reasons, he was unable to put Weyburn away and the final margin was just a neck at the wire in 1:44.63 for the 1 1/16 miles on the fast main track.
"I would have liked to keep him focused with help from the stick," Geroux said in reference to New Jersey's strict rules, "but it's the same for everyone. You have to hand ride. I thought I made the right move but he still wandered and tried to pull himself up. If I waited longer people would have said 'Why did you wait?' It's easier to explain when you win."
A grade 2 winner with earnings of $1,051,252, Mandaloun is the second foal from the group 2-winning Empire Maker mare Brooch and her second winner. He has 2-year-old and yearling full brothers and a weanling half brother by War Front .
Weyburn, who won the Gotham Stakes (G3) for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, also ran well as the 9-2 second-choice while making his first start since a fourth in the April 3 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2).
"When he coasted to the lead, we hoped he'd keep going but (Mandaloun) pounced on him," Jerkens said. "It was good to see him make a second run at him."
Though Sunday's top two finishers get a free spot in the Haskell, Jerkens said he's leaning toward running Weyburn next in the July 31 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course.
Harrell Ventures' Dr Jack, a Pioneerof the Nile colt trained by Todd Pletcher, was 2 1/2 lengths back in third and it was another 15 1/2 lengths back to grade 2 winner Brooklyn Strong.