Lady Bowthorpe Favored in Duke of Cambridge

The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (G2) revolves around whether you believe warm favorite Lady Bowthorpe  is flattered by her latest performance.

Sent off at 22-1 for the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1) at Newbury last month, the William Jarvis-trained 5-year-old produced a career-best performance by some way in finishing a length and a half runner-up to the mighty Palace Pier .

Racing Post Ratings suggest she ran to a level eight pounds above what she had reached on her seasonal reappearance when beating Queen Power  by a head in Newmarket's Betfair Dahlia Stakes (G2).

It is fair to say that Palace Pier beat Lady Bowthorpe comfortably, but it is equally pertinent that she pulled 5 1/2 lengths clear of the third, Top Rank .

Milers of the caliber of Lord Glitters , Happy Power , Lope Y Fernandez , and Century Dream  all finished well adrift of Lady Bowthorpe, and it would be churlish to simply stress that they all ran well below their best.

While the Lockinge career-best was the 13th start of Lady Bowthorpe's career, the evidence from 2021 suggests she has been a slow-burner and has made significant improvement this year.

A mere reproduction of that Lockinge performance ought to be good enough to land this lesser race against members of her own sex, and that's without factoring in the distinct possibility of even further progress. The daughter of Nathaniel should prove very difficult to beat.

Queen Power is officially rated four pounds inferior to Lady Bowthorpe, having been one pound behind her big rival when they clashed at Newmarket last month.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained mare only went down by a head, but the way in which Lady Bowthorpe traveled into the race suggests she is value for more than the official margin.

"She ran well in this race last year and is coming off the back of an impressive performance where it was good to see her relax better," said Alastair Donald, racing manager for King Power Racing, the owners of Queen Power. "Everything looks right and I would say we were maybe caught for fitness a little bit when Lady Bowthorpe beat us at Newmarket. That said, she's still the one to beat."

Queen Power has since seen her own rating rise by six pounds following an eight-length York demolition of Chamade  in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies' Stakes (G2) at the Dante meeting.

That was also a career-best effort, and perhaps she too is now starting to blossom having performed below market expectations on several occasions last season.

While the drop back to a mile may not be ideal for her, Queen Power still looks the biggest threat to the favorite.

Chris Wall places his runners extremely well, so the fact that he pitches the rapidly progressive Double Or Bubble straight into group 2 company on the back of a deeply impressive Newmarket handicap success off 91 speaks volumes for the regard in which he holds the 4-year-old daughter of Exceed And Excel .

A winner over seven furlongs under James Doyle at Ascot last September, she ought to improve for her first venture at a mile, and it would be no surprise were she to enter the frame.

"This will be a big step up in class for her, coming out of handicaps into a group 2," said Wall. "She's a very relaxed filly and so I don't think she'll have any problems with the extra furlong, and the fast ground will suit as long as the showers stay away."

Lady Bowthorpe Has Jarvis Excited

It has been 27 years since trainer William Jarvis last enjoyed success at Royal Ascot when Grand Lodge captured the 1994 St. James's Palace Stakes (G1).

Throughout that summer, Wet Wet Wet were telling us that Love Is All Around and victory for Lady Bowthorpe in the Duke of Cambridge for Jarvis and owner Emma Banks, a leading agent in the music industry, would be deeply loved by many supporting the likely favorite.

Jarvis might not quite be able to feel victory in his fingers and toes, to paraphrase the famous opening lines from the song, but it would be fair to say the trainer is tingling with excitement at the prospect of his stable star lining up with a leading chance at Royal Ascot.

"We're enormously excited about being involved with a filly like this," he said. "She's got to run up to how she did in the Dahlia and the Lockinge to justify her place at the head of the market but I'm really happy with her.

"I would love to see a shower of rain but I don't think we're going to get that. However, if she runs somewhere like her runs already this season she'll be highly competitive."