Handicapping: Plays Up, Down the Eastern Seaboard

The holiday weekend kicks off with multi-stakes action at several tracks July 3.

Belmont Park cards the storied Suburban Stakes (G2), a "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar Nov. 6, as well as the $100,000 Perfect Sting Stakes scheduled for the outer turf course. A forecast for rain could work against 4-5 favorite Viadera  in the Perfect Sting Stakes, as her lone defeat from four starts in the United States was a fourth-place finish on yielding turf at Belmont.

Delaware Park has four stakes sprinkled through their program, highlighted by the Kent Stakes (G3T) for 3-year-old grass runners and the Delaware Oaks (G3) for 3-year-old fillies. Showers are in the forecast there as well.

It's also the biggest day of the summer at Gulfstream Park, where the Princess Rooney Invitational Stakes (G2), a challenge-race qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), is preceded by the Smile Sprint Invitational (G3). South Florida has been in a rainy pattern the past couple of weeks, and as always at this time of year, there could be a pop-up thunderstorm at any time.

Let's go up and down the Eastern Seaboard with a look at the five graded stakes in chronological order (all times ET).

Kent (Del, Race 7, 4:15): We're trying to beat Like the King  (5), the 8-5 favorite who comes off a disappointing fifth as the 2-1 choice in the Audubon Stakes on good turf at Churchill Downs.

Our key is Yes This Time  (2), who comes off four straight wins at Gulfstream where he showed the ability to win on the lead, from midpack, and from dead last.

Gershwin  (1), Be Here  (4), and Wootton Asset  (7) are well-connected runners who rate consideration. 

Gershwin, a Godolphin homebred by Distorted Humor   and out of five-time grade 1 winner Music Note , has had three prior races rained off the turf capped by a convincing score in the Penn Mile Stakes (G3). He is a half brother to Mystic Guide .

Be Here , an Augustin Stable homebred by Ghostzapper   and out of the champion sprinter Informed Decision , rallied for second against older allowance company in his initial grass attempt and has since been gelded. 

Wootton Asset missed by a nose on yielding turf in the Laurel Futurity first time in the U.S. and makes his seasonal debut for dangerous layoff trainer Graham Motion, who is based close by at Fair Hill.

A — 2

B — 1, 4, 7

Delaware Oaks (Del, Race 8, 4:45): Looking to fade 6-5 chalk Crazy Beautiful  (7), who didn't beat much in either the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) or the Summertime Oaks (G2).

Crazy Beautiful is no faster now than she was as a 2-year-old last fall, and faces a trio of dangerous opponents in Midnight Obsession  (3), Juror Number Four  (4), and Leader of the Band  (6).

Midnight Obsession and Leader of the Band ship in for Parx-based conditioner John Servis. Midnight Obsession suffered her first defeat when edged in the Lyphard Stakes by older nine-time winner Trolley Ride  but still finished 19 lengths clear of the show horse. Leader of the Band has won or placed in four straight starts and may control the pace stretching out.

Juror Number Four is third back from a layoff for her initial two-turn attempt and exhibits a favorable figure pattern indicating a possible forward move.

A — 3, 4, 6

B — 7

Smile (GP, Race 10, 5:02): No serious knocks on Diamond Oops (6), a six-time winner over the track who captured the 2019 Smile and also took the Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) later that year. Significantly, the stretch-running Diamond Oops was making the third start of a form cycle in both of those victories and he does the same thing here after getting up to nip the razor-sharp Miles Ahead (8) in a prep for this.

Chance It  (4) was edged late by Double Crown  (5) when they met several weeks ago. However, that was Chance It's first start since emerging from the 2020 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) with a soft-tissue injury, and he will surely benefit from that effort.

A — 4, 6

B — 5, 8

Princess Rooney (GP, race 11, 5:35): This is a fun race with five legitimate contenders. The one that may fall through the cracks seems like Thisismytime (3), who splashed to victory in track-record time taking an off-the-grass Millions Filly & Mare Turf Preview at Gulfstream Park West last November. Two starts later, she won the pace battle but lost the war to Pacific Gale  (4) in the Inside Information Stakes (G2) and came back gamely for second. She has been freshened by Kathleen O'Connell and will try to take them all the way with ever-aggressive Emisael Jaramillo aboard.

Pacific Gale was 16-1 when she upset the Inside Information, but then confirmed it was no fluke by coming right back to win the Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3). Two subsequent starts at Belmont in the Vagrancy Handicap (G3) and Bed o' Roses (G3) suggest her form has tailed off.

Estilo Talentoso  (1) dug in gamely to win the Bed o' Roses. This remarkably reliable runner has never been out of the money from 14 starts that includes a 2-3-1 slate from six local outings.

Ce Ce  (5) won the Beholder Mile Stakes (G1) and Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) back to back early in 2020, but she is 0-for-5 in graded stakes since then, with four of those defeats at 2-1 odds or lower.

Laura's Light  (6) has now won on turf, synthetic, and dirt after taking the off-turf Ouija Board Stakes in the slop at Lone Star Park. The daughter of 2014 Besilu Florida Derby (G1) winner Constitution   has won both prior sprints and her dam was a 12-time sprint winner on dirt and synthetic, so the pedigree is certainly there for this situation.

A — 1, 3

B — 4, 5, 6

Suburban (Bel, Race 10, 5:44): These are heady times for Godolphin, which has three of the top six horses in the current NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, with Mystic Guide at #1, along with Maxfield  at #3 and Essential Quality  at #6. 

Mystic Guide (4) makes his first start since winning the Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airlines (G1). That was Mystic Guide's third win from four starts in blinkers, the only blemish a close second to Happy Saver  (6) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) last fall.

The Gold Cup capped a quick rise to prominence for the unbeaten Happy Saver, a homebred son of Super Saver   who had been unveiled in a maiden race at Belmont less than four months earlier and was making his graded stakes debut against the more seasoned Mystic Guide, who was coming off a win in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2).

It's tough to see past these two as they square off against four seemingly overmatched rivals. We'll give the edge to Happy Saver, who comes off a solid prep in a high-end optional claimer that ran his record to 5-for-5. Breaking from outside in a compact field of five, he may get a tactical edge controlling the pace.

A — 6

B — 4